JK Dobbins signs with 2025 Denver Broncos
The Broncos signed RB J.K. Dobbins to a one-year, $2.75 million contract. He can reach “up to” $5.25 million with incentives, too. This move carries a significant amount of weight in 2025 Fantasy Football, as the Broncos boast one of the best environments for running back production.
Both Dobbins and electric rookie RJ Harvey see big shifts to their 2025 Fantasy Football Outlooks and Values. Let’s dive into my expectations and why I’ll continue to smash both Broncos’ RBs at their current prices.
JK Dobbins 2025 Fantasy Outlook Updated: Major Riser
Dobbins lands in the absolutely PERFECT spot for fantasy at this stage of the offseason. No, he is unlikely to start or be the lead RB for Denver — but Sean Payton‘s backfields quite regularly support 2+ mouths at high-levels (more on this later).
Dobbins himself is coming off a career-high 1,058 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns across 13. He was the RB10 in rush yards per game & RB17 in Half-PPR FPPG (just ahead of Breece Hall and just below Chase Brown). While his long speed seemed sapped, Dobbins’ elite vision and constant “churn forward” mentality were fully on display.
Dobbins has always been hyper-efficient, with a career 5.2 YPC. He just struggles to stay healthy and has never lasted a full season.
ESPN’s Jeff Legwold expects the Broncos to “give Dobbins a long look in that third-down role ahead of Week 1.” Color me skeptical, after Dobbins ranked 53rd out of 58 qualifying RBs in yards per route run last season. Nonetheless, Dobbins is a strong pass protector, and should see a massive uptick in receiving usage just from being in a Payton-led scheme.
Still, as a protector, Dobbins brings tons of experience, which OC Joe Lombardi cited as a major reason for the signing:
“It’s exciting. That is a guy who’s had a lot of success in his career,” Lombardi said of Dobbins last Wednesday. “It’s someone we’ve always had a lot of respect for. It adds talent and competition to that room. Obviously, he’s been a very productive runner, and he’s a good pass protector. I think it will help the competition in that room and help the team.”
Dobbins himself will carry an extra chip on his shoulder, especially for the division-rival Chargers: “I always have a chip on my shoulder, but that was a little weird,” Dobbins said. “It’s a business. It’s for my agent to handle. Good luck to [the Chargers]. I’m a Bronco now. They have to see me twice a year. That’s my thoughts on it.”
I expect Dobbins to inherit a “Mark Ingram“-inspired “big back” role that drips in 800+ yards & 10+ TD upside should he remain healthy. This makes him an absolute STEAL at his current 140ish, RB47 price tag.
This is especially when you factor in Sean Payton’s historic success churning out RB Fantasy Production:
Sean Payton and Broncos = Perfect Environment for 2025 Fantasy Football Production
The Broncos ranked second in PFF Run Blocking Grades, 10th in total points per game (25), and project to take a meaningful step forward in Bo Nix‘s second year. You wouldn’t need to dig any deeper to see why Denver offers an elite environment for RB production.
Yet, Payton’s historic deployment of RBs, especially in the passing game, creates even more optimism for both Dobbins and Harvey. I’ve noted many times that a target is 2.5x more valuable than a carry in fantasy value. Now consider:
- Since 2013, Payton-led offenses have ranked Top-5 in RB Target share in every season.
- In 17 seasons, Payton’s backfields have ranked Top-2 in total fantasy season a whopping 12 times (70%).
- Payton has directed 120+ passes to his RBs 12 times since 2006, when he became a head coach — this has happened just 32 total times in that span (& Payton is TWELVE of them!).
- In 17 years, he has NEVER ranked outside the Top-5 in expected receiving points to RBs.
Even just last season, with complete CRAP in his backfield, Payton targeted his RBs 22% of the time, which ranked fifth in the NFL. Payton steadily funnels high-value volume to his RBs, and now has two talents in Dobbins and Harvey that should capitalize (unlike Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin).
Consequently, Payton’s offenses have long-supported 2+ RBs in fantasy. In 2017, Alvin Kamara was the RB3 and Mark Ingram was the RB6. He has had TWO Top-24 RBs from the same backfield four different times. Payton’s RB2’s have average 13.4 PPR FPs over the course of his career!
I expect Harvey and Dobbins to be Payton’s next great duo.
RJ Harvey Updated 2025 Fantasy Outlook with JK Dobbins
No, Dobbins’ addition can’t be spun as a “positive” for Harvey’s 2025 fantasy value. The explosive rookie looked like he had truly zero competition for volume, and now he will contend with a worthy veteran.
Still, this move is far from a death knell for Harvey. In fact, I will gladly scoop Harvey at his new discounted ADP around ~60 (about 10 spots down from his pre-Dobbins price).
Clearly, Payton schemes up a massive and delicious “pie” of fantasy production for his RBs. After the team invested hearty Round 2 draft capital into him, Harvey should be the largest mouth at the table in 2025.
Our own Duck detailed Harvey’s elite fantasy upside already. Some key takeaways:
- 21% of his carries went for 10+ yards, more than Ashton Jeanty.
- Harvey averaged 5.67 yards created per attempt last season, trailing only Jeanty in this class
- His 0.43 missed tackles forced per carry ranks third in the class behind Jeanty and Tuten
- In a recent deep dive by RotoViz, it was found that Harvey posted a 142.0 receiver rating in 2023 and followed it up with a 118.0 score, lining up closely with Jahmyr Gibbs. In fact, comparing his production profile to past running backs, Harvey’s profile closely aligns with fantasy football legend Jamaal Charles.
These were all traits that Payton emphasized when asked why they drafted Harvey:
“Harvey—[he] was kind of our pet cat throughout the process. His running style, he’s dynamic, really good vision, really good instincts, really good contact balance, highly explosive. We thought maybe he had the best vision in the draft. You see the plus-10s, I think he leads everyone with plus-10 runs. Home run ability… We feel like he can improve in the pass game. He wasn’t featured there, but we really liked this [running] back.”
With 4.4 speed, insane acceleration, and elite contact balance, Harvey indeed should be a nightmare for opposing defenses in this scheme. All were on display as he racked up 1577 yards and 25 TDs at UCF last fall.
While Dobbins will now lighten Harvey’s load, Payton still emphasized the rookie has true three-down skills:
“When you think about this, Sproles, Kamara, there are a lot of different backs we’ve had that we can create different protections to make sure that the matchup’s right,” Payton said. “Because I know the question is, ‘Is he a three-down back?’ Well, he’s going to play on third down– “There’s a lot we can do relative to really suit his strengths.
“If you watch his stature, he’s put together pretty well. So there’s a difference between a small runner and a short runner. We’re not interested in the small runners, but we’re OK with the short runners.”
Given his 11.8 YPR across 61 career receptions, Harvey has certainly flashed passing-game juice. Payton has already promised “two or three schemes” meant to involve Harvey as a receiver, and even suggested getting him into the infamous “joker” mismatch role that made Kamara a star. In OTAs, the Broncos gave Harvey “ample work in the passing game as he prepares for the kind of multifaceted responsibilities required of running backs in [Sean] Payton’s offense.”
The results have been very encouraging. Everyone in the Broncos organization has been impressed with Harvey so far, including Dobbins:
“He’s going to be really good. I see a special player in him,” Dobbins said on Wednesday after signing. “He’s going to help me out, and I’m going to help him out. He’s going to be great.”
Meanwhile, Harvey’s work ethic, and rapid growth as a receiver, have most impressed QB Bo Nix:
“He’s done a really good job working,” quarterback Bo Nix said last week. “He does a good job out of the backfield. It’s hard to tell with shorts and a shirt what it’s like running the ball with no pads, but that’s obviously why we got him.
“You know he can run the ball, but I think it’s the other things that he’s showing. Just the routes, [his] suddenness and quickness in his hands. I think all that’s really good to see, but he’s a great guy, first and foremost, then I think it’s going to translate for him being a successful player.”
And if you need any further convincing, just look at the quads:
Summary: Target Both Broncos RBs in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts
While Dobbins does ding Harvey’s fantasy ceiling and floor, both RBs are looking like massive values in 2025 fantasy football. Payton’s scheme has consistently generated massive fantasy value for the entire backfield thanks to heavy receiving usage, creating opportunities for both Harvey and Dobbins to excel and pay off their ADPs.
Harvey remains the clear top choice and highest upside pick, and is well worth the stab at his ~60 ADP in current Best Ball drafts. I’ll be buying the dip hard. Nonetheless, Dobbins is an even stronger value going in the 140+ range.
Plus, with Dobbins’ extensive injury history, Harvey will be a genuine league-winner if (when) he gets the backfield reins to himself.
Ultimately, Harvey falls to 58th overall (8 spots) on my 2025 Fantasy Football Big Board, but remains in my Top-20 RBs. He is still a heavy target in Round 5-6 for me. Meanwhile, Dobbins shoots up to 123 overall (+30), and becomes one of my favorite bench RB targets in the double-digit rounds. Both also rose heavily in my 2025 Best Ball Fantasy Football Rankings.
