As of recently, the NFL community expects instant WR1 fantasy football production from top talents selected in the NFL draft within their first year. When expectations aren’t met in full, those once highly coveted assets become deflated value-wise. Year two is a big year for many great prospects in terms of getting the full offseason to prepare and working on parts of their game that need improvement before taking their next steps in the NFL.
My favorite time to buy in on a player I am interested in is after the prospect’s first season in the NFL. Without any production on an NFL field to sway the players’ values one way or another, offseason hype builds leading up to the NFL draft, tending to inflate the market.
Now that the 2024 NFL season is over, many fans of the game are already engraving their 2024 rookie rankings in stone. In reality, it may be a while before we can officially “call it” on any 2024 rookie takes, especially considering how young some of the prospects are from last year’s class.
I want to highlight three wide receivers who deserve a second look and could potentially surprise some people next season and beyond. In other words, these are rookies from this past season who took a hit in their stock, presenting valuable opportunities to gain exposure to the following wide receivers at a bargain.
KEON COLEMAN, WR, BUFFALO BILLS
As a prospect, Keon Coleman had a 39.6% college dominator rating (81st-percentile). He broke out his sophomore year as a 19-year-old (82nd-percentile breakout age) at Michigan State alongside a 22-year-old senior, Jayden Reed – who had 1026 receiving yards on 105 targets and 10 touchdowns his junior year in 2021.
In his (Reed’s) final collegiate season, Reed’s role in the offense was more than impacted by the breakout of Keon Coleman – so much so that the 19-year-old sophomore Keon Coleman out-produced the 22-year-old senior Jayden Reed and the rest of the 2022 Spartans squad:
Keon Coleman — 88 TGT, 58 REC, 798 YDS, 13.8 Y/REC, 7 TD, 244 YAC, 4.2 YAC/REC, 2.07 YPRR, 12.3 ADOT, 4.9% DRP%, 9 MTF, 37 1D
Jayden Reed — 84 TGT, 55 REC, 636 YDS, 11.8 Y/REC, 5 TD, 222 YAC, 4.0 YAC/REC, 1.83 YPRR, 11.8 ADOT, 8.3 DRP%, 3 MTF, 28 1D
Watching some of 19 year old Keon Coleman’s highlights at Michigan State was cathartic. pic.twitter.com/a4CuuT8Jtu
— Kayla (@kaylaf_99) April 28, 2024
Coleman is a dangerous weapon after the catch–as he combines elite balance through contact, explosive quickness, and sheer physical dominance to evade and outmuscle defenders.
The 21-year-old rookie averaged 7.83 yards after the catch per reception, the fourth-most amongst all NFL wide receivers (min. 50 targets) and first amongst rookies. He also averaged 4.86 yards after contact per reception, which ranked first amongst all WRs (min. 50 targets). Deebo Samuel is second in this metric (3.14 YACO/REC) and averaged over a yard and a half less after the catch per reception than Coleman.
Keon Coleman is pretty good after the catch!!#GoBills #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/PeZzZ0TRja
— Dave Myers BIB (@DaveMyersBIB) October 20, 2024
Coleman is recognized for his dominant mindset and aggressive approach to the game. He possesses the ideal WR physique for the NFL, with elite size (6-foot-4 (89%*), 215 lbs (81%*)) and a compact, powerful build. He also displays top-tier burst (82nd percentile) and foot speed, with rare lateral twitch for a player of his physical stature.
The former Spartan and Florida State Seminole exhibits exceptional strength at the catch point, elite timing, and precise body control with the ability to make effortless midair adjustments. His ball skills allow him to secure tough catches under tight coverage and outside his natural radius.
Before making his way to the NFL, Coleman posted 10 contested catches in each collegiate season as a starter, which ranked top-20 both seasons amongst Power-5 wideouts with 50 or more targets. That skillset looks to have translated seamlessly.
A beautiful TD catch by @keoncoleman6 🔥
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
📺: #BUFvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/t2VpmIdGGP
Coleman averaged 1.87 yards per route run this season, which was the fourth-most amongst all 2024 rookie wide receivers (min. 50 targets), just behind Malik Nabers (2.30 YPRR) and just ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. (1.74 YPRR).
Also, Coleman averaged 19.17 yards per reception, which was the third-best amongst all WRs (min. 50 targets) and the best amongst all 2024 rookie WRs. He had an average depth of target of 15.3, which was the sixth-most amongst WRs (min. 50 targets) and first amongst the rookies.
Coleman forced 0.17 missed tackles per reception, which ranked third amongst 2024 rookie WRs and 22nd amongst all WRs (min. 50+ targets). Furthermore, Coleman’s 0.17 MTF/REC tied Ja’Marr Chase and Malik Nabers–who all sit just ahead of Tee Higgins (0.16 MTF/REC).
KEON COLEMAN DOWN THE SIDELINE. ONE-SCORE GAME IN HOUSTON.
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
📺: #BUFvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/1E6b8fegEc
As just a 21-year-old rookie, Keon Coleman produced amongst some of the best. Coleman had more yards per route run vs man coverage than the league’s leading receiver Ja’Marr Chase, as well as some other solid wideouts such as Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman Jr., Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Jordan Addison and Khalil Shakir.
Regarding Coleman’s yards per route run versus zone coverage, he was about even with the sophomore breakout, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Coleman had slightly more yards per route run versus zone and man coverage than the first wide receiver selected in the 2024 NFL Draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. (another WR I will discuss). Coleman and Harrison Jr. generated statistics in the yards per route run category versus man and zone coverage nearly identical to the PPR WR10 in 2024, Garrett Wilson.
WRs vs man and zone coverage pic.twitter.com/A7PE3jmPlv
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 14, 2025
Comparing Coleman’s production as a rookie to that of other notable wide receivers allows us to see a bigger picture of where Keon might be development-wise, especially as the second-youngest receiver in the NFL behind Malik Nabers.
Coleman had more yards per route run than the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, D.J. Moore, Devonta Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, George Pickens, Calvin Ridley, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all did in each of their rookie seasons
Rookie WR seasons with the current class highlighted. Nabers, BTJ, Ladd and Harrison shaping out that first fantasy tier pic.twitter.com/GQHR53iNpr
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) December 3, 2024
Coleman flashed intriguing potential before picking up a wrist injury in the Bills’ Week 9 game versus the Dolphins. During Weeks 1 through 8, no pass catchers averaged more yards after the catch over expected than Keon Coleman.
The Bills’ rookie also had more yards per route run than other 2024 rookies such as Ladd McConkey, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, and Xavier Legette–as well as some more established pass catchers like Tee Higgins, Drake London, D.K. Metcalf, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jameson Williams, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, D.J. Moore, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews.
Keon Coleman and Tucker Kraft 👁️ https://t.co/Amu1eqsgVc
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) October 28, 2024
Coleman was averaging three yards per target over expectation (based on depth of target) through those first eight weeks, which ranked 1st amongst 2024 rookie WRs and 9th amongst all WRs (min. 25 targets) – ahead of the eventual triple-crown winner, Ja’Marr Chase (2.8 YPTOE).
It’s hard to forget Coleman is blessed with the opportunity to catch passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the world, Josh Allen. After Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis decided to leave Buffalo, they vacated 241 targets from the previous season. Coleman was drafted to fill the void and plug in as the Bills’ alpha outside “X” receiver.
Josh Allen and Keon Coleman were tied with Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers (more-so Nabers) for the ninth-best target EPA (26.67 total EPA) amongst quarterback-receiver duos weeks 1 to 8 before that unfortunate wrist injury. There is much room for Josh Allen to develop chemistry with his young receiver as Coleman progresses.
Top QB/receiver combos in target EPA pic.twitter.com/YDJZkhEYih
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) October 29, 2024
Another metric that is important to note is Coleman’s total EPA. Through 15 weeks, Coleman was fourth in total EPA amongst the first ten wide receivers selected in the 2024 draft, just ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. (16.7 total EPA) and just behind Malik Nabers (36.4 total EPA). In EPA per game, Coleman ranked third (2.8 EPA / game) amongst those top ten wideouts – ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. (2.6 EPA / game), Marvin Harrison Jr. (16.7 EPA / game), Rome Odunze (1.0 EPA / game), and Xavier Worthy (0.8 EPA / game).
Regarding EPA per catch and EPA per target, no other rookie receivers were able to catch Keon Coleman, as he ranked first in both metrics. He averaged a whopping 1.22 EPA per catch and 0.72 EPA per target. Trailing Coleman in EPA per catch and EPA per target were Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr., who put up 0.79 and 0.58 EPA per catch, as well as 0.57 and 0.37 EPA per target, respectively. Malik Nabers ranked fourth in both categories with 0.40 EPA per catch and 0.26 EPA per target over the same span.
First 10 WRs drafted this year sorted by total EPA on targets pic.twitter.com/vKntb0EogR
— Robby (@greerreNFL) December 17, 2024
You may do with this information what you will, but it is quite interesting to look at. Over just about the last decade, only two wide receivers have averaged more than 18 yards per reception on 50 or more targets in their rookie seasons – one of which has three WR1 seasons (any season WR12 or better) under his belt.

XAVIER WORTHY, WR, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Worthy boasted a 27.8 percent college target share (84th percentile) while breaking out at the young age of 18 years old (97th percentile) at the University of Texas before declaring early for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Worthy garnered 100 or more targets in every one of his collegiate seasons – including as a freshman when he caught 62 passes for 981 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. 104 targets were good for a 30.1 percent target share in 2021, which is quite steep for just an 18-year-old true freshman. His performances earned him AP Big-12 Newcomer of the Year, All Big-12 First Team, and Big-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors in 2021.
Worthy finished his true freshman season at Texas ranking 23rd in receiving grade amongst all Power-5 wide receivers (minimum 50 targets)–which was ahead of Chris Olave in his final season, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers back in 2021. Worthy also had the 10th-most yards after the catch (526) – topping a handful of 2022 first-round wide receivers such as Drake London (460 YAC), Garrett Wilson (417 YAC), and Chris Olave (276 YAC).
In terms of yards after the catch per reception, Worthy ranked 5th with 8.5 YAC/REC. This was better than Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 8.3 YAC/REC in his unreal sophomore season at Ohio State, Zay Flowers’ 7.4 YAC/REC, Quentin Johnston’s 6.8 YAC/REC, Jordan Addison’s 6.6 YAC/REC, and Garrett Wilson’s 6.0 YAC/REC. Last but not least, he was 17th in yards per route run (2.61 YPRR), again edging out Chris Olave in his final season (2.29 YPRR).
All of these metrics combined with the fact that Worthy had the youngest breakout age in the 2024 WR class, make me optimistic for his future as he develops under the best offensive mind in football.
Malik Nabers and Keon Coleman were the only other wide receivers in the 2024 class with a breakout age and draft capital comparable to Worthy. It’s important to note that every wide receiver in the chart below that broke out after about the age of 21 are considered draft “misses” thus far. I personally do not dwell on draft capital, but I do believe breakout age and a player’s workload (or usage) are at the very least, somewhat correlated to future success.

In a “down year” his sophomore season in 2022, Worthy still put up a respectable 760 receiving yards on 60 receptions with nine receiving scores. Despite that, he bounced back in his final collegiate season in 2023 with over 1,000 receiving yards on 75 receptions with five caught touchdowns. Amongst Power-5 receivers with 50 targets, Worthy was 6th in yards after the catch (571), 13th in yards after the catch per reception (7.6), 19th in first downs (44), and 25th in missed tackles forced (13) to wrap up his collegiate career.
There goes that man 🤘 pic.twitter.com/zGWdtZHOzZ
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) September 17, 2023
After Xavier Worthy set the combine record for the fastest 40-yard dash of all time (4.21 seconds), many within the NFL community gave him the “small and fast” label – suggesting he might be on the same path as the previous record holder, John Ross III. The difference is Worthy’s game is built on speed, explosiveness, and precision. He’s most dangerous when the ball is in his hands, capable of breaking away from defenders with ease.
He’s not just a burner–his route-running ability, particularly on slants, makes him tough to cover at all levels. Worthy is a smooth athlete with elite acceleration, emphasized by his 96th percentile burst score, allowing him to stretch the field effortlessly and blow past the opposition.
Though lean in build, he has dependable hands (90th percentile catch radius) and doesn’t shy away from contact over the middle. Adding to his value, he has shown the ability to line up both outside (62.8 percent of his snaps were out wide in 2024) and in the slot (35.8 percent of his snaps were out of the slot in 2024), proving he’s more than just a one-dimensional speedster.
Xavier Worthy doing his thing.
— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
📺: #KCvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/s1k5ygK0ET
In just his first NFL season, Worthy ranked third amongst 2024 rookie wide receivers and 17th amongst all wide receivers (minimum 50 targets) in yards after the catch this season with 409 YAC – ranking just behind Malik Nabers (485 YAC) and Brian Thomas Jr. (572 YAC), who were arguably the two best rookie WRs this past season. Worthy had more yards after the catch than Nico Collins (377 YAC), A.J. Brown (363 YAC), Drake London (332 YAC), D.K. Metcalf (258 YAC), and Tee Higgins (243 YAC). All of which are far superior size-wise in comparison to Worthy, suggesting he plays bigger than his stature.
Xavier averaged 6.93 yards after the catch per reception this season, which was 2nd amongst rookies just behind the receiver I mentioned earlier, Keon Coleman – as well as 8th amongst all wide receivers (minimum 50 targets). His 6.93 YAC/REC ranked ahead of Puka Nacua, Brian Thomas Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ladd McConkey, Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and various other decent wideouts.
WOOOOORTHY 🏃♂️#ProBowlVote + @XavierWorthy#ProBowlVote + @PatrickMahomes pic.twitter.com/lIDZTM1Z2L
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 15, 2024
It takes a while to earn the trust of Patrick Mahomes as Andy Reid typically brings his rookies along slowly, especially ones as young as Worthy (21.7 years old). Despite that, Worthy tied for the 10th-most targets (17) and receptions (10) inside the red zone, as well as tied for the 7th-most yards (34) and 4th-most touchdowns (4) inside the 10-yard line amongst all players in 2024 – suggesting Reid does have trust in his young receiver. With that, Worthy was able to score the 10th-most total touchdowns (9 TDs) amongst all WRs.
Xavier Worthy gets the Christmas scoring started ‼️#KCvsPIT on @Netflix pic.twitter.com/MzEGMz0p4K
— NFL (@NFL) December 25, 2024
Xavier Worthy gets the Chiefs on the board!pic.twitter.com/ybuvLQgYCj
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 17, 2024
Over the last decade, only five wide receivers have had rookie seasons with 500 or more receiving yards and 100 or more rushing yards—one of those being Tyreek Hill, a very notable former Kansas City Chiefs pass-catcher.

One piece of information separates two of these players from the rest. Throughout the league’s history, Xavier Worthy and Tyreek Hill are the only wide receivers ever to score three rushing touchdowns and six receiving touchdowns in their rookie seasons. Ironically, both were (or are) coached by the offensive mastermind himself, head coach Andy Reid. If Worthy has even a shred of upside that a young Tyreek had, I am that much more in.

Surprisingly enough, Worthy posted a higher air-yards share than both Tyreek Hill and Rashee Rice did in their rookie seasons with the Chiefs, as well as a higher target share than Tyreek did. Not only that, but Worthy had more yards after the catch and yards after the catch per reception than Tyreek did in his rookie year. Believe it or not, Worthy put up a similar rookie year target share-wise and air yards-wise to CeeDee Lamb – boasting a better air-yards share but slightly less target share than Lamb did in 2020.
Going further in-depth, there have only been nine first-round wide receivers since 2014 to score nine or more total touchdowns while earning 95 or more targets in their rookie seasons:
- 2024 Xavier Worthy (98 TGT, 9 TD)
- 2024 Brian Thomas Jr. (133 TGT, 10 TD)
- 2023 Jordan Addison (108 TGT, 10 TD)
- 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (128 TGT, 13 TD)
- 2020 Chase Claypool (109 TGT, 11 TD)
- 2016 Michael Thomas (121 TGT, 9 TD)
- 2014 Mike Evans (123 TGT, 12 TD)
- 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (130 TGT, 12 TD)
- 2014 Kelvin Benjamin (145 TGT, 9 TD)
P.S.: Keep buying Jordan Addison and buy-high on Brian Thomas Jr.
The word “league winner” is thrown around quite a bit in the NFL community, but by definition, it’s a player that significantly impacts your chances of winning the league from weeks 15 to 17. Besides Brian Thomas Jr., who was the WR1 from weeks 15-17 averaging 28.2 FPPG during that span, and Malik Nabers, who was the WR5 with 24.7 FPPG over that span – it was Xavier Worthy who shined down the stretch. Worthy was the third-highest scoring rookie pass-catcher and WR10 overall in PPR leagues from weeks 15-17, averaging 21 FPPG – he certainly played a part in winning a championship or two of mine this past season.
There has been a ton of debate as to why the Buffalo Bills traded the rights to draft Xavier Worthy to the Kansas City Chiefs, which ultimately ended up in the Bills drafting a receiver they had more interest in: Keon Coleman. Most of that trade was about team fit, as Worthy made the most sense in an Andy Reid-style offense, while Coleman was the alpha on the outside Buffalo was looking for.
The community seeks the recognition of a winner or loser in that trade, but who says both teams can’t benefit from the trade and both players can’t have success for their respective teams? Why not stock up on shares of both Keon Coleman and Xavier Worthy?
MARVIN HARRISON JR., WR, ARIZONA CARDINALS
Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t see much action his freshman year at Ohio State back in 2021, courtesy of a combined 2,600 receiving yards from a sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a junior Garrett Wilson, and a senior Chris Olave, but he did tie a Rose Bowl record with three touchdown catches in effortless fashion.
Never forget that as a freshmen, Marvin Harrison Jr. COOKED Utah for three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl. pic.twitter.com/GcI8W9Nd7T
— Johnny Venerable (@JohnnyVenerable) April 28, 2024
As a sophomore in 2022, Harrison Jr. broke onto the scene–catching 77 passes for 1,263 receiving yards (16.4 yards per reception) and 14 touchdowns. He fell just short of winning the Biletnikoff Award (most outstanding CFB receiver), but did win Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year and became Ohio State’s first wide receiver to be named a unanimous All-American. This is where he ranked amongst all Power-5 wideouts with 50+ targets in 2022:
- 90.2 Offensive Grade (1st)
- 89.9 Receiving Grade (1st)
- 3.18 Yards / Route Run (4th)
- 30 Contested Targets (5th)
- 18 Contested Catches (T-2nd)
- 61 First Downs (3rd)
In 2023, Harrison Jr. secured “redemption” in his final collegiate season as a junior after feeling snubbed out of the Biletnikoff Award the year prior, posting 67 receptions for 1,211 receiving yards (18.1 yards per reception) and another 14 touchdowns:
- 89.9 Offensive Grade (3rd)
- 89.6 Receiving Grade (T-4th)
- 3.44 Yards / Route Run (3rd)
- 30 Contested Targets (T-2nd)
- 13 Contested Catches (T-8th)
- 51 First Downs (8th)
On top of that, Harrison Jr. finished his commanding career at Ohio State with a 47.9% college dominator rating (95th-percentile) and 31.8% college target share (94th-percentile). This led to Marvin Harrison Jr. being deemed a “generational” prospect to build your team or offense around. He possesses the ideal blend of precise route-running abilities, size, hands, and speed, making him one of the most complete wide receiver prospects in recent memory.
That rare combination of technical skill and physical ability is as close to a “sure thing” as it gets — he has all of the tools to make a significant impact and thrive at the next level. At 6-foot-4 (89%*) 205 pounds, Harrison Jr. runs about a 4.4 and may or may not be quicker in-game–he clocked a 22.2 MPH touchdown back at Ohio State. For comparison, that would have ranked as the 2nd-fastest ball carrier in the NFL this season behind KaVontae Turpin (22.36 MPH) and ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. (22.15 MPH).
Marvin Harrison Jr. appreciation thread 🧵
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) March 21, 2024
Who needs a 40?@MarvHarrisonJr was clocked at 22.2 mph this season.
This would have been the second fastest ball-carrier time in NFL last yearpic.twitter.com/UDiSFmZqTa
He stands in a league of his own when comparing him to the past two draft classes of wide receivers. He was 2nd in both first downs per route run and yards per team pass attempt throughout his collegiate career amongst that group.
He put up more yards per team pass attempt in college than a handful of notable prospects such as Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, and Zay Flowers. Fellow Ohio State pass-catcher Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the only prospect out of that bunch that surpassed Harrison Jr.’s metrics in first downs per route run.
Looking at career production from the last two WR classes, interesting seeing Puka/Tank up there with the big dogs. pic.twitter.com/CnRt8hub02
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) April 18, 2024
Furthermore, Harrison Jr. outpaced many of those household names as a prospect, posting more expected points added per snap in college than Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, Nabers, Smith-Njigba, Wilson, Smith, and Olave. Not only that – but Chase, CeeDee, Smith-Njigba, Smith, and Waddle were the only first-round prospects since 2019 that had more yards per route run than MHJ. Most impressively, Harrison Jr. had more EPA per snap and YPRR in college than Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers did.
Since 2019, there have only been eleven wide receivers taken in the first round of the NFL draft that posted higher than 0.19 expected points added per snap on pass plays in their collegiate careers (per Football Insights) – a list that includes arguably the top three wideouts in football along with some of the league’s best young studs:
- Justin Jefferson
- Ja’Marr Chase
- CeeDee Lamb
- Marquise Brown
- Jaylen Waddle
- Devonta Smith
- Garrett Wilson
- Chris Olave
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Malik Nabers
- MARVIN HARRISON JR.
Amongst all wide receivers taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 2018, only two prospects had a lower percentage of their receptions caught behind the line of scrimmage than Marvin Harrison Jr. (9%) did – those being none other than Ja’Marr Chase (2.8%) and Brian Thomas Jr. (7.9%).
Despite that, Harrison Jr. had a lower percentage of his receptions caught behind the line of scrimmage than Chris Olave (10.2%), Garrett Wilson (13.3%), Justin Jefferson (13.9%), Rome Odunze (15.4%), Jahan Dotson (16.9%), CeeDee Lamb (17.3%), and Malik Nabers (17.9%). All of these wideouts make up the top ten in this metric – while most of this bunch are considered top five-to-ten at the wide receiver position.
Lowest % of receptions caught behind LOS, Round 1 WRs since 2018 draft
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 2, 2024
Ja’Marr Chase: 2.8%
Brian Thomas Jr: 7.9%
Marvin Harrison Jr: 9%
Chris Olave: 10.2%
Garrett Wilson: 13.3%
Justin Jefferson: 13.9%
Rome Odunze: 15.4%
Jahan Dotson: 16.9%
CeeDee Lamb: 17.3%
Malik Nabers: 17.9%
Expanding on that topic, there have only been five rookie wide receivers to obtain first-round draft capital, breakout before the age of 20.2, post higher than 2.8 yards per route run, and higher than an 89.7 PFF receiving grade – Marvin Harrison Jr. being one of the newest additions to that bunch.
From 2018 – 2023, 5 rookie wide receivers had
— Jack Reinhart 〽️ (@JackJReinhart) May 11, 2024
– First round capital
– Breakout age < 20.2
– Yards per route run > 2.8
– PFF grade > 89.7
The 5 WRs: JSN, London, Chase, DeVonta Smith, CeeDee Lamb
2024 rookies Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze all qualify… pic.twitter.com/zgVXFo10iw
Sure, it might be hard to compare Harrison Jr. to some of these elite names at this very moment – but it’s important to emphasize just how close his college production was to another one of those elite WRs. For me, it was hard to miss the fact that Harrison Jr.’s red zone target rate and yards per route run at Ohio State were nearly identical to CeeDee Lamb’s production in those metrics at Oklahoma. MHJ boasted a higher red zone rate, as well. Not to mention, Harrison Jr. ended up having a fairly similar rookie year to CeeDee Lamb–falling just short of matching Lamb’s metrics in yards per route run and fantasy points per game.
WR prospects red zone target rates and YPRR throughout college. pic.twitter.com/or0Sm2hkxM
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) April 3, 2024
In just his first NFL season, Marvin Harrison Jr’s 43.4 percent air-yard share ranked sixth amongst all wide receivers and second amongst rookie pass-catchers this season. That 43.4 percent happens to be the second-highest air-yard share out of all rookie wide receivers dating back to 2013, just behind fellow rookie Malik Nabers.
Rookie Wide Receivers
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) January 8, 2025
Target Share x Air Yards Share
Malik Nabers is in a tier of his own 👑
Brian Thomas Jr. ranks among some of the best WRs in recent history 👀
Marvin Harrison Jr. will be just fine – finished with a 22% Target share & 43% Air Yards share pic.twitter.com/G8PDf4xcCn
MHJ’s 38.1 percent team receiving touchdown market share ranked 10th amongst all wide receivers (minimum 25 targets) and third amongst rookies. His 17 end zone targets were just one short of tying Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Courtland Sutton–who all tied to lead the league in end zone targets with 18. Harrison Jr. tied Mike Evans for the second-most end zone targets in the league this season.
MARVIN HARRISON JR. HAS ARRIVED!
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
📺: #LARvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ZTAbE4kapU
What a catch by Marvin Harrison Jr. for the score!
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
📺: #AZvsMIA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/NGzEMNJhBc
He boasted a 14.1 average depth of target, ranking third amongst rookie wide receivers and 11th overall (minimum 50 targets). Harrison Jr. finished his rookie year up with 216 total route wins, the 11th-most route wins amongst all wide receivers. In addition to that, he boasted a 42.8 percent route win rate with a 34.4 percent target route versus man coverage – which ranked second and sixth in the NFL, respectively.
dare we say ~aura~ pic.twitter.com/LNUGuiY5Jy
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 22, 2024
Kyler Murray ➡️ Marvin Harrison Jr. = SIX
— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
📺: #WASvsAZ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/9hWhpp0A0a
There have been many great wide receiver prospects throughout the history of the NFL – but they do not all meet the high expectations given to them upon entering the league. After Malik Nabers’ and Brian Thomas’ outstanding seasons, it cast a shadow over Marvin Harrison Jr.’s production as a fellow rookie – but it was Harrison Jr. who accomplished a feat only one other great wide receiver has.
There have only been nine first-round wide receivers drafted since 1998 to post more than 850 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns in their rookie years:

To expand even further, only TWO wide receivers selected in the first round of the NFL Draft this century have produced more than 850 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns on just 65 receptions or less in their rookie seasons…

OVERVIEW
With the growing perception for top NFL draft picks to deliver WR1-caliber performances immediately upon entering the league, anything short of that significantly drops their perceived value.
Although it’s great to see production early, year two in the NFL is typically regarded as a crucial milestone in a player’s career. Following their rookie season, they’ve had time to adapt to the pace and complexity of the game, making the second year a key opportunity to take their game to the next level.
Last year, I dug deep into the idea of buying low on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Rashee Rice before a potential breakout (in value or performance). It may not always work out in your favor as many variables contribute to allowing a certain WR to succeed (or not succeed), such as their situation or an injury, but you bet on talent. A player’s situation can change at any time, while the talent and ability are more likely to stay consistent, if not improve (in a young player’s case).
All of the 2024 rookie receivers I discussed are being overshadowed by the phenomenal rookie years of Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey. This is your time to buy at prices that were likely not obtainable before this past season unfolded.
Regarding some suggestions for what players I might use in a trade offer, try flipping a player of similar value to Ricky Pearsall or Jalen McMillan for Keon Coleman—I paid a Jonnu Smith share in exchange for Coleman. For Xavier Worthy, I would trade any player close to Jayden Reed, Khalil Shakir, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Jameson Williams, or McMillan if you can.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is trickier as he is the most expensive of this group – I would try and sway the owner with A.J. Brown, Rome Odunze-plus, Devonta Smith-plus, Jaylen Waddle-plus, or Zay Flowers-plus. I acquired Harrison Jr. and Javon Baker (a taxi-stash I like) by sending my trade partner D.J. Moore, Jalen McMillan, and future draft capital (no 1sts or valuable 2025 picks). You can also attempt to obtain a plus back on top of MHJ in exchange for Ladd McConkey. I’d do that as well, and most likely, even straight-up.