Fantasy Football Playoff Heroes Emerge Every Year!
Every fantasy football season, at least one waiver wire pick up catches fire during the fantasy football playoffs, helping countless managers win championships.
Just last season, Darius Slayton was the WR7 from Weeks 15-18, finishing with 14+ Half-PPR FPs to close out 2023. Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert scored 18.6 & 19.9 in the semifinals and finals as the RB4 during the final two weeks.
The year prior, Jerick McKinnon was the RB4 over the final four games, with 30 and 20 point blow ups. Not to be outdone, KJ Osborn finished as the WR5 from Weeks 15-18, averaging 14.9 FPPG.
Perhaps the greatest examples of all came in 2021. Rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown was among the most rostered players on championship rosters. He went 19.5, 21.5, 31.4, and 22.1 Half-PPR FPs over the final four weeks, the most of ANY WR over that span (23.6 FPPG!) At RB, Rashaad Penny caught fire late, scoring 19.5, 31.5, and 25, averaging a whopping 25.3 FPPG!
Who will be the 2024 Fantasy Football Playoffs Heroes?
Based on injuries and ascending roles, there are four key candidates to consider: Patrick Taylor, Kendre Miller, Jalen McMillan, and Brenton Strange.
Patrick Taylor Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook and Playoff Upside
Admittedly, I don’t know a ton about Patrick Taylor. Mostly, because there hasn’t been a ton to know.
Yet, with Isaac Guerendo banged up and “unlikely to play” according to Adam Schefter, it’s time to learn more about the UDFA out of Memphis.
At minimum, he’ll have the keys to one of the NFL’s most valuable backfield schemes in Week 16, and possibly longer. Let’s dig in:
Taylor has 79 career carries for an uninspiring 311 yards (3.9 YPC) and 2 TDs. The majority of this production came during his time in Green Bay, where Taylor spent the first three years of his career. He has more special-teams snaps (387) than offensive snaps (366) across four seasons.
Taylor has only hit double-digit carries once in his career: Week 18 as a rookie, when he took 11 carries for 53 yards (4.8 YPC) and 1 TD. He finished as the RB20 this week with 13.6 FPs.
Taylor’s not particularly athletic, but he is a sturdy 6’2″, 217 lbs. As such, his 4.57 forty isn’t awful, and actually grades out in the 64th percentile in weight-adjusted speed score.
Typically, a true “league-winner” / playoff hero requires some semblance of explosiveness and athleticism. Yet, all Taylor may need is a pristine environment to be a highly viable fantasy RB2.
Truly, no matter the talent, Kyle Shanahan‘s zone blocking scheme has made fantasy monsters out of whoever’s being fed. This trend dates back to his dad Mike Shanahan‘s days in Denver, and his disciple Gary Kubiak wherever he’s called plays.
Look no further than this 2024 fantasy season to realize the efficacy of Shanahan’s scheme. Even with Christian McCaffrey limited to only two full games, this backfield has produced a Top-24 RB in 9-of-14 games (64%), and a Top-12 RB in 6-of-14 (43%) — and none of the RB1 games were CMC! The floor is also solid, with the season-low by a starting 49ers RB being 8.9 FPs.
Taylor’s matchup vs. Miami is also fairly ripe in Week 16. The Dolphins have surrendered the 15th most FPs to RBs, but are particularly vulnerable at surrendering TDs. They’ve given up 12 rushing TDs, which is tied for fourth-most in the league. As a big, bruising runner, Taylor could definitely cap off some scoring drives for this offense.
Ultimately, Taylor would need 2+ TDs to profile as a true “Playoff Hero.” While that feels unlikely, Guerendo achieved this just two weeks ago. At minimum, a sturdy RB2 / Flex performance feels likely here, making Taylor well worth a stream in Week 16 and my RB25 (+11 ECR) in my Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings.
Kendre Miller Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook and Playoff Upside
Similar to Partrick Taylor, an injury has opened the door for Kendre Miller to make some noise down the stretch of the 2024 fantasy football season.
Alvin Kamara will miss Week 16, and possibly the rest of 2024 with a groin injury per Schefter:
Injuries have severely hampered Miller throughout his career, but he’s. flashed significant playmaking ability when available.
On the season, Miller has averaged 4.6 YPC, accruing 130 yards on 28 totes. Though he has done little as a pass-catcher so far in 2024 (exactly 1 receiving yard), Miller averaged a healthy 11.7 yards per catch as a rookie, with 117 total receiving yards on 11 catches.
With Kamara banged up roughly halfway through last week’s game, Miller absorbed nearly every snap and touch, running 12 routes and tallying 9 carries compared to one route and zero carries for Jamaal Williams.
As such, the stage feels cleared for a 13-20+ touch output for Miller on Sunday. He has only topped 10 carries twice in his career, both as a rookie:
- Week 5 vs. NE = 16 touches (4 rec), 90 YFS, 13 FPs (RB16)
- Week 18 vs. AT = 14 touches (1 rec), 79 YFS, 1 TD, 14.9 FPs (RB13)
At 6 feet, 220 lbs, Miller is a large back who consistently churns forward. At TCU, he was surprisingly agile and explosive for his size, particularly in tight quarters. He was highly graded by many analysts, and was ultimately the engine behind much of TCU’s surprise 2022 season. Unlike Taylor, Miller does come with some real prospect pedigree akin to most league-winners.
Yet, can we actually trust Miller to hold up? He’s been available for just 12-of-30 career games, and he left early in multiple of those too.
Meanwhile, with Derek Carr done for 2024, the Saints offense could be an abomination for the remainder of the year. Spencer Rattler looked surprisingly feisty in Week 15, so maybe there’s hope, but against a Top-5 defense like the Packers, I strongly doubt the Packers offense will string together much production as a unit, Miller included.
If Miller could regain his college form and maintain health, he has the natural ability to be a stretch-run hero. If we see some flashes this week, I’d love to roll him out in a Top-eight spot against Vegas in Week 17. Still, I need to see it with Kendre before committing.
I just don’t sense a ceiling greater than ~11-12 FPs in this horrendous offensive environment and tough matchup. With the zero point injury floor, Miller is not a recommended play for me vs. the Packers.
Consequently, Miller is just my RB30 in my Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings (-6 ECR).
Jalen McMillan Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook and Playoff Upside
Jalen McMillan took quite a while to arrive. Yet, after two straight fantasy explosions, this tooth paste seems very unlikely to go back into the tube.
Back in Week 8, we speculated that McMillan had the best shot at filling the vacated slot role in Chris Godwin‘s absence. McMillan ran 67% of his NCAA career routes from the slot. Despite being drafted nearly a full round after his Washington Huskie teammate Ja’Lynn Polk, McMillan actually averaged significantly more YPRR (2.32 vs. 1.84).
Moreover, per FantasyPoints’ Ryan Heath, McMillan’s route-tree has been incredibly similar to Godwin’s in 2024:
Unfortunately, McMillan got injured in Week 8 and had struggled to find his footing while mostly playing on the outside.
With Mike Evans now back on the outside, and Sterling Shepard dinged up (under 50% of snaps & routes in back-to-back weeks), McMillan has recently enjoyed a slight bump in slot rate.
More importantly, McMillan has been a far greater part of the game-plan. Per Fantasy Points Data, McMillan drew 26.7% and 22.7% first-read targets the past two weeks, both career highs. He rewarded the Bucs with career-high 2.19 and 3.26 YPRR respectively, smashing his previous-high of 1.45 all the way back in Week 1.
The ultimate counting stats have been massive:
- 7 targets, 4 receptions, 59 yds, 2 TDs – 21.9 FPs, WR9
- 6 tgts, 5 receptions 75 yds, 1 TD – 18.5 FPs, WR18
Over this span, McMillan has at least one 20+ yard reception, showing plenty of deep prowess from the inside too.
The Cowboys present a juicy Week 16 matchup, too. They’ve surrendered the 10th most FPs on the season, and have been especially vulnerable as of late after losing Trevon Diggs for the year.
In Week 15, Jalen Coker just bombed them for 19 points, largely out of the slot. The Week prior, Ja’Marr Chase hung 38.1 on Dallas. Ultimately, Dallas has surrendered the 3rd most FPs to WRs over the past four weeks, and with Cooper Rush playing better ball, this game feels ripe for a shootout.
Of all the names here, Jalen McMillan is my favorite to be a true league-winner down the stretch. He’s well above-average as an athelete, ranking in the 77th percentile in 3-of-5 metrics per PlayerProfiler (and none below 66th percentile):
Don’t forget: McMillan CRUSHED it throughout camp to clearly beat out Trey Palmer as the number three WR. In fact, he was called “a DAWG waiting to be unleashed” in camp.
Writers mentioned “McMillan has ‘put on a show’ so far in camp. Baker Mayfield has routinely connected with him, and called him a “young stud” with “a ton of potential.”
Finally, this all seems to be coming to fruition when fantasy owners need it most. I have McMillan in at WR37 (+8 ECR) in my Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings, and have zero hesitation rolling him out as a WR3 / Flex option this week.
Brenton Strange Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook and Playoff Upside
The TE2 in PPR scoring last week, Brenton Strange is already well-on his way to being a true difference maker during 2024 fantasy crunch time.
Evan Engram is officially done for 2024. In his Week 15 absence, Strange amassed a whopping 12 targets — a feat that has happened only 20 times for a TE all year, nearly all from Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride or David Njoku. Great company to keep!
Strange has been rock-solid all year without Engram, though. Per RotoViz’s Game Splits tool, Strange has averaged 6.2 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 10.86 FPs in five games without Engram.
These FPPG would rank as the TE5 on the season, just ahead of David Njoku and Jonnu Smith. Strange’s season-long pace would be 78 receptions (105 targets), 656 yards, 7 TDs, and 185 FPs. He’s been a Top-12 TE in four-of-five starts without Engram, too.
Thus, Strange is absolutely on the Week 16 fantasy football streaming radar. While Mac Jones isn’t a plus for most weapons, he’s always loved checking down to his safety valves, which should keep Strange heavily involved on Sunday.
Strange is an impressive athelete, too. He’s a massive 6’4″, 253 lbs yet ranks 71st percentile in 40-yard dash time (4.7) and 86th percentile in Burst Score (125), per PlayerProfiler.
Stir in a juicy matchup versus the Raiders, who allow the fourth most FPs to opposing TEs, and Strange could easily repeat as a Top-5 TE during your fantasy semi-finals. The Raiders have allowed the third most receptions to TEs on the year, and another target-hog day could be in the works for Strange.
Ultimately, Strange slides in as my TE8 in my Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings.
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