Welcome to my fourth installment of the Fantasy Football Usage Report, which Jon Jackson provided in the previous few seasons. My first time getting my feet wet was three weeks ago. At the time of this writing, Monday Night Football hasn’t finished yet.
Little did I know that when I took over this project, it would undergo a total transformation, from data sources to expansion to new metrics based on what Jon had been doing previously.
Feel free to check out the full report here.
Stats were pulled from Pro Football Reference, and built up from there. Metrics referenced here include:
USG — Usage, or Targets+Carries/Team Snaps, denoting how much a player was used during all of their team’s field time
INVL — Involvement, or Targets+Carries/Individual Snaps, denoting how much a player was used during all of their individual field time
U/I — USG/INVL. Ultimately, this is just a player’s snap percentage. But because I look at multiple weeks of USG and INVL, USG/INVL actually uses simpler formulas in my spreadsheet than always referencing a player’s snap percentage
UIP — (USG/INVL)*PPR. Similarly, UIP is just a player’s snap percentage multiplied by their PPR score over the week(s), and to me “UIP” is easier to think of than any abbreviation that would come from “snap percentage times PPR”
DOM — Dominator Rating. A common term in the fantasy football community, it looks at a player’s production and places a value on how much of the individual production accounted for the team’s production
UIP has been particularly fun for me in looking at who is making the most of their opportunities.
In all screenshots, a player’s week 12 Snap Percentage is included to help give context to who the fantasy-relevant players are in general. We’re not worried about anyone consistently getting five snaps a game.
Keeping in line with past Workload Reports, its focus on rushing and receiving work means we won’t really be looking at QBs, but instead RBs, WRs, and TEs, and ideally, I’ll be able to add in post-Monday Night Football data later on.
First, here’s a look at players’ fantasy scoring differences compared to week 7-11.
Player Fantasy Scoring Comparisons (In PPR)
Players with the highest percentage of their team’s PPR points (excluding QB) in week 12:
The Rams know how elite Saquon Barkley is, and it didn’t matter. 255 rushing yards later, at just under ten yards-per-carry, with two scores, and Barkley is seemingly on his way to a Curtis Martin-esque type of career.
Players who saw the highest jump in PPR% compared to their week 7-11 rolling average:
Michael Pittman Jr. (6 rec, 7 tgts, 96 yards) had his first week as at least a fantasy WR2 since week 5, thanks largely to the struggles of both Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco under center. The silver lining with having Pittman in fantasy was that at least he had the tools to be the alpha-WR in Indy even through mediocre QB play, but that went out the window as Josh Downs has enjoyed a fruitful season so far.
After a promising return in week 11, Richardson’s struggles showed up in the stat sheet this past week with only 11 completions out of 28 passing attempts. Pittman has to overcome both mediocre QB play and the emergence of Downs if he wants to overcome fantasy volatility moving forward.
Players who saw their biggest drop in PPR% from their week 7-11 rolling average:
Joe Mixon‘s down week figures to be an outlier after going against a stout Titans run defense, as a similar narrative for D’Andre Swift took place, pitting him against a stout Vikings front while the Bears’ passing game was successful enough to keep them in it before losing in overtime.
Justin Jefferson‘s dud (2 rec, 5 tgts, 27 yards) didn’t stop the Vikings offense from humming, as they still got the win with TJ Hockensen and Jordan Addison (who occupies the top of many of this articles’ lists) went for 15 receptions, 276 yards, and a TD combined.
At this point, it should still be safe to consider this one an outlier for Jefferson, but it is a yellow flag that the Vikings offense was able to be that successful without him, and could possibly point to higher volatility in the future.
Involvement (INVL)
Players with the highest week 12 INVL:
Nick Chubb‘s real-life numbers still show some disappointment: 58 rushing yards on not even three yards-per-carry. But the biggest takeaway for his rest-of-season prospects is that he received his first 20-plus carry day, and had 20 out of the 24 running back carries for the Browns, including the goal-line work that enabled him to get two touchdowns against the Steelers on Thursday night.
After that performance, Chubb could very well be at worst a volume-based RB2 to close out the season.
Players with the highest jump in INVL compared to their week 7-11 rolling average:
There can be a lot of white noise from this list from players who won’t become fantasy-relevant, but Cade Stover is not one of them. A late riser at Ohio State, Stover has slowly garnered more snaps and targets during his rookie season. And even though he’s still at the stage of a backup tight end, he’s doing well enough with his opportunities: he got into the endzone this week, something starter Dalton Schultz still hasn’t done.
On this trajectory, he may not be a name to watch for in redraft leagues, but he is still worth checking your waivers in dynasty in case he’s still available, and will undoubtedly be picked up in some this week.
Usage (USG)
Players with the highest week 12 USG:
Tony Pollard did all he could to shut the door completely on the idea of Tyjae Spears getting meaningful work at any point this season, garnering 24 rushes for 119 yards, a TD, and 3 catches for another ten yards as he handled a full workload with Spears’ absence.
As if the Buccaneers’ backfield wasn’t irritating enough to try and maneuver, Bucky Irving finds his name above Rachaad White on this week’s top usage list in large part because while Rachaad is typically the back with more receiving work (out-targeting Irving 41-to-28 heading into week 12), it was Bucky who saw six targets to Rachaad’s one.
This will make it even harder to project who the better back is moving forward, and even more likely to disappoint you if you need to rely on them down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs.
Players with the highest jump in USG compared to their week 7-11 rolling average:
Trey McBride sees the second highest jump in usage from his week 7-11 rolling average despite seeing a consistent role in the Cardinals’ offense (15 targets in week 12). These kinds of games aren’t surprising for McBride, he will see peak fantasy performances here and there as Arizona’s top target earner certain weeks, and it helped put him in the discussion as the possible TE1 in dynasty heading into this season.
It will be interesting to see if the 29 year old receiver David Moore can carve out enough of a role to merit FLEX consideration rest-of-season. With over a 90-percent snap share this past week, that alone deserves monitoring him in a receiving core with mediocre competition.
Players with the biggest drop in USG compared to their week 7-11 rolling average:
Jonathan Taylor finds his way on this list after facing a tough Lions run D, and Anthony Richardson‘s return under center, once again hawking some of the rushing workload the past couple weeks. Weeks 1-4 are there to remind us that he can still be an RB1 with Richardson (he was the RB6 during that stretch).
James Conner‘s 1.1 yards-per-carry highlighted the need for the Cardinals’ to go pass-heavy as they struggled against the Seahawks, and explaining his place at the bottom of the USG Delta list here. It’s a similar story for Rhamondre Stevenson.
Mike Evans‘ return helped create immediate drop-off for Cade Otton‘s usage, something that wasn’t really a surprise but hopefully if you had a good sell-high opportunity with Otton, you were able to take it, because it got shut quickly.
UIP (USG/INVL*PPR)
Players with the highest week 12 UIP:
Courtland Sutton (8 rec, 10 tgts, 97 yards, 2 TDs) continues to show his league-winning upside, and showing it less and less likely that this Broncos offense is a fluke. He has at least eight targets in the last five games and has reached must-start territory rest-of-season. What terrible timing for fantasy managers that he has a week 14 bye.
Jayden Waddle is out here doing Jaylen Waddle things. Don’t let his week 12 blow up make you forget that this is the highly volatile Waddle fantasy journey. Many, if not all, people likely still remember but if you were looking for a good opportunity to try and trade him, now is as good a time as it’s probably going to get.
Players with the highest UIP compared to their week 7-11 rolling average:
Jonnu Smith‘s presence at the top of many of these lists shadow another monster game from week 12 (9 rec, 11 tgts, 87 yds, 1 TD) making him a possibly league-winner this year and keeps his sell-high window wide open in dynasty if you wish to partake.
DOM (Dominator Rating)
Players with the highest week 12 DOM:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6 rec, 7 tgts, 77 yards, 1 TD) may not have had a “monster” game but his presence atop the Dominator list highlights that his breakout season is still in full-force, his role on the Seahawks a primary one, and he can still be started rest-of-season with the utmost confidence.
Players with the highest DOM compared to their week 7-11 rolling average:
Austin Hooper‘s presence here rather highlights not just the struggles of the Patriots offense around him, but since his role hasn’t been heightened from what it’s been all season, we should be able to put this in the “outlier” bin as this was only his second TD of the year, and the only one the Pats got against the Dolphins in week 12.
Thanks for reading!
