Did everyone sell high on Kyler Murray? Well, hopefully it wasn’t for Dak Prescott. While it’s impossible to predict injuries, Prescott being out for a while with a hamstring injury is a lineup killer.
Some leagues match their fantasy trade deadlines with the NFL trade deadline, while some could be right on the horizon. Time is running out to get rosters right for the fantasy playoffs, and the kid gloves are off!
Hopefully you’ve survived the hits this season has handed you!
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide through when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping roster construction.
Let’s go!
Week 10 Buy-Low Players
Rico Dowdle
Without Prescott manning the offense, Dowdle’s touchdown equity is bound to take a hit, right?
Well, yeah. However, Rush didn’t shy away from using his running backs in the passing game.
Pollard and Zeke combined for 21.6 ppg with Rush at the helm and Dowdle doesn’t have much competition for opportunities as it stands.
From weeks four through eight, Dowdle is pacing for 990 rush yards and 442 receiving yards on the back of 64 targets and 55 receptions.
Over that same span, Dowdle is averaging 16.18 ppg (PPR), which would be good for the RB10 overall, just ahead of Kareem Hunt, James Cook, and Jonathan Taylor.
With Elliott in the team’s doghouse and Dalvin Cook looking like he doesn’t belong on the football field, Dowdle is set to handle the lionshare of the backfield and serve as a checkdown machine for Rush.
Buy him now and watch him explode as Dallas’ schedule continues to soften.
Brian Thomas Jr.
Thomas put up an absolute stinker this week.
A 2-catch, 22 yard day is not going to get the job done. Trevor Lawrence trending toward being out with a shoulder injury doesn’t bode well for his week 10 prospects either.
Mac Jones may not inspire much confidence as a quarterback, but for a game, he can be servicable and operate the offense. Thomas is the main straw that stirs the Jaguars offensive drink.
Christian Kirk, who is out for the season, has been the first read on 23.8% of his routes, while no other player has been the first read on 30 or more routes.
With a 25.8% air yard share and a team leading 74.9% route share about to be supplemented, Thomas is in line to be fed.
Oh, and did I forget to mention how JUICY his schedule is down the stretch?
On the season, Thomas is avering 14.44 points per game on the back of 3.9 receptions and 5.9 targets. With a nose for the endzone and averaging around 17 yards per catch, Thomas is a great buy low prospect while his price tag might be a little subdued.
Week 10 Sell High Players
Tank Dell
Stefon Diggs is out for the year and Dell is finally balling out. Why would I classify him as a sell high?
Well, while it’s certainly in the range of outcomes for CJ Stroud to get over the dreaded sophomore slump plaguing his season, with Nico Collins activated off IR, Dell’s status as the WR1 is no more.
With the 23rd offensive DVOA, it’s a tall task to expect Stroud to support two standout WRs, and this is Nico’s receiver room.
If Collins sits another week, hold Dell for one more week and capitalize on what could be a really juicy matchup. It’s a risky gamble. You really have to stand out on the edge of the Earth and bet on whether or not Collins plays.
Tank Dell has ran an impressive 251 routes (72%) of the team’s offensive plays. He’s on the field enough to justify keeping him while also justifying selling him high.
Collins was the first read on 29.5% of his routes prior to his injury and has only two fewer targets than Dell, despite playing three fewer games.
Once again, I reiterate, I am not pounding the table to sell Dell just to get out from underneath him. He’s an EXPLOSIVE human joystick that light up a stat sheet with every touch. I’m just following probabilities and trends. Sell Dell for a good price and either upgrade at the position with a struggling superstar, or sell him for a depth fueling package and solidify any roster holes you might have.
JK Dobbins
Earlier this season, I advocated for Dobbins to be a sell high, and I feel that he’s come full circle.
On the season, Dobbins’ role has been worth 14.4 xFP/g (+1.8 FPOE). He’s been a wonderful surprise and continues to do so. However, from weeks 3 through 8, Dobbins scored less than 10 PPR points per game and failed to finish as an RB1 in any of those games.
With 30.2% of his points coming from inside of the red zone, it’s easy to see how Dobbins could be viewed as a touchdown dependent asset with a lower floor than people realize.
Without a truly favorable matchup ahead of him until fantasy championship week and 75.6% of his fantasy production coming on the ground, it appears likely Dobbins could see another rough stretch ahead.
On the flipside, with the Chargers finally opening up the passing offense and Justin Herbert showing his coaching staff how incredible a passer he is, there could be more touchdown opportunities available for Dobbins down the line.
Still, with the history of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman offenses, is that something you really want to bet on? That could be a pretty sharp fall from grace that you’d be on the hook for.
Float Dobbins around and package him off for a Brian Robinson Jr. plus a little something extra and reap the rewards that could be in store for the Commanders offense ahead.
As with Dell, do not sell Dobbins just to sell him. That’s foolish fantasy malpractice.
