Ray Davis Fantasy Outlook: Ready to Shine on Monday Night Football and Beyond with James Cook Out

James Cook has officially been listed as OUT for the Buffalo Bills’ matchup against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. Who is going to step up out of the backfield?

The answer is simple—Ray Davis. Davis is a dominant back in the run game, capable of shedding tackles and gaining extra yards after contact—highlighted by his 94th-percentile college dominator rating. He shows excellent patience and vision in finding open lanes.

Also, Davis has a legitimate receiving upside and is an effective route runner. He boasted an 11% college target share, which ranks in the 82nd percentile for running back prospects.

Regarding Davis’ combination of both rushing and receiving, his collegiate career put him in a particular pool of previous running back prospects. There have only been thirteen Power-5 RB prospects since 2014 (minimum 25 games) with career averages of 50-plus yards after contact and 1-plus yards per route run (per Football Insights):

  • Dalvin Cook
  • Leonard Fournette
  • James Conner
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Zack Moss
  • JK Dobbins
  • Jonathan Taylor
  • Travis Etienne
  • Javonte Williams
  • Kyren Williams
  • Bijan Robinson
  • Audric Estime
  • Ray Davis*

Comparing Davis’ collegiate career to other now-NFL running backs that have been drafted over the last few seasons helps us understand what kind of potential is there. Davis posted nearly identical usage opportunities per game (rushing attempts and targets) as former Notre Dame RB Kyren Williams did but forced more missed tackles per touch. Davis also recorded more usage opportunities per game than two current notable NFL RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane, falling just short in missed tackle per touch over their NCAAF careers.

His ability to block in pass protection may eventually be a highly coveted asset for the Buffalo Bills, which will presumably keep him on the field.

RAY DAVIS’ COLLEGE FOOTBALL CAREER

Davis was a journeyman in collegiate football. As a true freshman at Temple, he earned First-Team Freshman All-America by Pro Football Focus after rushing for 936 yards on 193 attempts with 8 rushing touchdowns – along with 15 receptions for 181 yards and 2 caught touchdowns.

After the pandemic cut the 2020 season short, Davis transferred to Vanderbilt for the 2021 season – but tore a ligament in his toe after the first 3 games. The following season, he rushed for 1042 yards on 232 carries with 5 rushing touchdowns, in addition to 29 receptions for 169 receiving yards with 3 receiving touchdowns. Davis finished the 2022 season sixth in all-purpose yards per game (100.92) and fourth in rushing yards per game (86.8) in the toughest conference in all of college football, the SEC.

Davis transferred to the University of Kentucky for his final year, where he earned First-Team All-SEC honors after rushing for 1,129 yards on 199 attempts with 14 rushing touchdowns. He also showed prowess yet again as a receiver, catching 33 passes for 323 receiving yards and 7 caught touchdowns – which was the most receiving touchdowns amongst all running backs in the NCAAF last year. He ranked third nationally in total touchdowns (21), fourth nationally in scoring (9.7), and sixth nationally in total points scored (126). Davis again ranked fourth in rushing yards per game (86.85), as well as all-purpose yards per game (111.69) in the Southeastern Conference.

Davis is believed to be the only player in NCAA history to total at least 1,000 rushing yards in a career at three different Division I schools – and also became the first player in SEC history to have 1,000-yard seasons at two league schools. Back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons in the SEC is no small feat, but Davis is also an extremely reliable receiver.

RAY DAVIS’ FANTASY OUTLOOK

I have been gradually acquiring shares of Ray Davis up until this point, but if there is any way you can trade a future third for him in Dynasty right now, I would do so. I would rank him anywhere in the RB30-35 range. Davis does have a chance to make a push for a role in this Bills offense beyond being just a handcuff and he does tend to find the end zone quite a bit, which is where James Cook has struggled in his time as the RB1 for Buffalo. As for redraft, he will be a popular waiver wire pickup after the games end tonight.

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