The 2024 fantasy football season is a year to be humbled. I’ve avoided players like Chase Brown and Alexander Mattison like the plague.
Prior to this year, Brown had historically been allergic to yards after contact and Mattison was a weak defense vulture for the majority of his career.
The running back landscape is as confusing as a house of mirrors at a street carnival.
Picture it, the United States, can you see it? A San Francisco running back leads the league in rushing; his name isn’t Christian McCaffrey.
Jordan Mason is pacing for 1,726 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. David Montgomery (RB8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (RB7) are right beside each other in fp/g. Not so crazy, right? Gimme a second.
Jerome Ford and Josh Jacobs are averaging the same fp/g (11.9) and Ford has half the carries as Jacobs.
Braelon Allen and Tank Bigsby appear to be pushing Breece Hall and Travis Etienne for more running back opportunity, with the latter duo underperforming drastically. Hitting your starts and sits at the RB position is the difference between winning and losing your week.
Fortunately, I’m here to try and sift through the muddy narrative and murky production to find the truth and help you win your week. Come along, Dr. Watson, the game is afoot!
Running back Starts
Chuba Hubbard vs. Atlanta Falcons
Andy Dalton has infused life into the Panther’s offense after Bryce Young has effectively been a dementor, feeding on the misery of his players around him. I’m kidding, obviously, Young appears to be a terrific teammate, but he was the anchor weighing down this otherwise promising offensive attack.
Each of the past three weeks, Hubbard has finished at or above the RB7. I don’t need to tell you the value that offers.
When Jonathan Brooks returns, there’s no guarantee the keys are handed to him. Hubbard is playing more like a Maserati and less like a Camry.
On the season, Hubbard is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, with 3.87 coming after contact. He’s also seen 10 carries come from inside of the 10 yard line, with five coming inside of the 5-yard line. In other words, he’s got a LUCRATIVE opportunity and, in the world of running backs, opportunity is king.
Through five games, Hubbard’s role has been worth around 13.6 xFP/g, and he’s scoring 16.1 on the season (+2.47 FPOE). In other words, Hubbard is balling out and has to be rostered this week against the third-most favorable RB matchup on the week.
Chase Brown vs. New York Giants
If you’ll allow me a moment to grieve. We are being deprived of the opportunity to watch two young, stud WRs from the same school go at each other. Ja’Marr Chase and Malik Nabers duking it out on the gridiron had the chance to rival Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in cinema greatness.
Brown is averaging 0.58 fantasy points per snap. For context, that’s just behind Derrick Henry (0.61) and David Montgomery (0.60) for third among RBs, and is just ahead of Alvin Kamara and James Cook (both have 0.53).
What’s most impressive is Brown’s averaging 4.07 yards after contact per attempt, which is also third among RBs. He’s learned to utilize his powerful frame to his advantage. The last RBs who played softer than their size for so long and exploded after figuring out they were bigger and stronger than everyone else? Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor.
Those are two terrific names to be associated with.
Last week, I advised that this is likely still Zack Moss’ backfield. Well, remember what I said above about 2024 being the year to be humbled. Brown isn’t likely going to just take a stranglehold on the backfield, but it’s clear who the alpha of the RB room should be.
Brown’s role on the season has been worth 9.0 xFP/g, but he’s averaging an alluring 11.4 (+2.42 FPOE). Like Hubbard, Brown is exploding before our eyes and is a strong start at the flex position, especially with the Bengals’ offense finally clicking on all cylinders.
Other starting RB options: JK Dobbins, Tyrone Tracy/Devin Singletary
Running back Sits
Jerome Ford vs Philadelphia Eagles
Just get away from the Browns offense, at least until Nick Chubb comes back and showcases whatever he has left in the tank.
Ford is about as reliable as a Ford Pinto. Sometimes, the car runs great, but only for so long, and then you better hope there’s a mechanic nearby.
Kevin Stefanski currently has no finger on the pulse of this offense. Who can blame him? Deshaun Watson appears to have quit on the team. He’s tired of taking sacks all the time and he’s frustrated with himself for missing plays. The whole Watson experiment has turned into a dumpster fire and needs to be extinguished properly to salvage this talented roster.
D’Onta Foreman, for whatever reason, has been getting fed over Ford recently, leading to him seeing less than 10 carries in two of the five games so far. On top of all of that, the practice squad roster purge has begun. Winter is coming for the roster as Chubb is likely commanding one of those spots after being activated.
More importantly, the Browns (+8.5) are likely going to fall behind early and be forced into heavy pass situations, which leads to Watson’s sacks piling high. This game projects to be another turd on offense and Ford will likely get sucked down in the weekly flush.
Alexander Mattison vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Guys, we’ve seen enough. Mattison is not good. Being better than Zamir White doesn’t mean he’s good. He’s just another lemon car with a nice coat of wax on it.
Mattison sat the entire fourth quarter last week, giving the immortal Ameer Abdullah more run than anyone expected.
PFF noted that the Raiders’ offense, as a whole, isn’t helping the running back situation either. Las Vegas has scored a touchdown or ran for a first down on only 11.4% of rush attempts. That’s the lowest in the NFL by far.
The Raiders also have the second-worst running back matchup this week against the vaunted Steelers defense that’s yielding only 3.7 yards per carry on the season.
So to do the math:
- Low touchdown upside
- Possibility of three running backs commanding work if White plays
- Bad rushing offense with a horrible rushing matchup
If you can avoid it, at all, put Mattison on the pine, at the end of the roster, away from your lineup!
Other RB sits: Rico Dowdle, Travis Etienne
