This season has been full of surprises.
Who would have guessed that Patrick Mahomes would be near unstartable in non-SuperFlex formats?
Who would have guessed that a rookie would be the WR1 in fantasy points per game while a popular choice for WR1 overall, CeeDee Lamb, would be the WR17 in ppg?
How about the fact that none of the consensus top three running backs have even come close to returning value? Yes, Christian McCaffrey is injured, and he gets a pass; but Breece Hall (RB14) and Bijan Robinson (RB19) are causing fantasy managers to rip their hair out.
Getting your start/sits right has never been more paramount, and maximizing your fantasy points is the only way to stay afloat.
With that being said, let’s take a look at quarterbacks and running backs and find out who is ready to bring you the dubs and who needs to sit with the scrubs.
Quarterback Starts
Justin Fields vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Fields has been a terrific fill-in at the position, while Russell Wilson has been recovering from an unexpected injury. In fact, Wilson is active this week and Fields is still starting. Perhaps Wilson has been relegated to backup duty? Perhaps they just want to ease him back into the saddle? That all could depend on how Fields performs this week, and he’s in line to hold that job for at least another week.
Walk with me.
Fields is averaging 18.1 ppg (11th) and he has the third most rush attempts at the quarterback position. What’s most impressive is how much he appears to have improved as a passer. He ranks 12th among all quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (73.0).
He’s uncorked the ball effectively against man coverage, with a juicy 8.6% big-time throw rate with an 11.1 yard aDOT. So who is lining up across from Fields this week? The Raiders rank among the league leaders in man-coverage rate.
George Pickens is in line to eat as well, as the Raiders have struggled mightily to cover deep and intermediate passes. They’ve gotten torched on 53.7% of qualifying passes and only forced an incompletion on 11%.
With a respectable rushing floor keeping him a viable streaming option, Fields is a clear start this week with multiple big-play touchdown upside.
Kirk Cousins
This seems odd coming off of a historic 509-yard and 4-TD game. I heard reports that the Buccaneer defense was still receiving treatment for the third-degree burns Cousins’ aerial attack inflicted upon them.
Here’s the kicker: Cousins said he still doesn’t feel like he’s 100% yet.
Regardless, something clicked in week five. Drake London and Darnell Mooney abused the Bucs secondary. Kyle Pitts was sniffing 100 yards receiving. That means Bijan Robinson popped off too…right? Right?!?!?!?
Well… no. But the dominance this offense showcased promises better days for Bijan!
The Carolina Panthers will take a crack at containing Cousins this week. Their major problem? They couldn’t contain an ice cube in a frozen glass.
The Panthers rank sixth in most fantasy points given up to opposing quarterbacks and only Justin Herbert failed to approach 21 fantasy points against them.
Cousins is on the ascent and an inviting matchup against the Panthers means Cousins is another no-brainer start this week.
Other starting QB options: Jordan Love, Daniel Jones
Quarterback Sits
Caleb Williams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This may seem like a hot take after top 10 weeks in two of his last three weeks, but his struggles against man coverage have not gone unnoticed.
This could blow back up in my face. Williams’ talent is undeniable and he’s improving rapidly. But on the season, according to PFF, Williams is only averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt when facing man coverage. That’s terrifying, considering the Jaguars play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league.
It has been noted that Williams has been sacked on 17% of his dropbacks against man coverage.
This is a bit of a hot take since the Jaguars breed week-winning quarterbacks, but Williams’ averaging 0.36 fantasy points per dropback is alarming. Until I see Williams take the next step against man coverage, I am hesitant to start him against man-heavy defenses.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Chicago Bears
On the other side of the battle of number one overall picks, it’s a high-risk gamble to trot Lawrence out against the Bears unless you have no other choice.
There has only been one quarterback that has put up double-digit fantasy points against the Bears… CJ Stroud.
Even after such a strong performance against the Colts (25.2 fps), Lawrence is best served sitting on the bench and letting his luscious locks blow beautifully in the breeze.
The ball-hawking Bears have only given up two passing touchdowns and have snatched six interceptions.
Repeat after me. I will not talk myself into starting Lawrence in week six.
Other QBs to sit: Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert
