Who in here is worried about Breece Hall? Anyone? Should you be? More importantly, who in here thinks Braelon Allen is a better fantasy option?
Good, now that we got that out of the way, let’s talk about the important things. Like, what the heck are the Jets doing? You fire a defensive-minded head coach when your defense is still playing high-end ball and the offense is struggling? Who let Aaron Rodgers be the GM, judge, jury, and executioner? Saleh was just the fall guy for the utter ineptitude of the offensive line, Nathaniel Hackett’s play calling, and Rodgers’ obvious falloff.
One week, Rodgers has performed in one week. He’s eclipsed *checks notes* 16 fantasy points just once. Hall has been collateral damage as the offensive line isn’t worried about Rodgers beating someone over the top anymore. The box can be stacked and opposing defenses can focus on not letting Hall gash them and keep drives alive.
Enough of my soapbox. Let’s move on to the important things.
Which players are currently excellent buy lows and which players need to be sold high to maximize value?
Week 6 Buy-Low Players
Jaylen Wright
Raheem Mostert looked good in his return to action. But it was the rookie who led the team in rushing, with 86 rushing yards, but that will fly beneath the radar as fantasy players are focused on the paradox of De’Von Achane and what happens after the week six bye.
So what makes Wright such an attractive buy-low candidate? I’ll answer your question with a series of questions. Why was Wright such an interesting fit with the Dolphins to begin with? What does the Dolphins offense utilize better than any offense in football? Speed and explosiveness.
After the NFL combine, it was found that Wright’s first five-yard speed (15.16 mph), in other words, his burst, was higher than Achane’s (14.94). Not only is he a perfect fit for the Miami Dolphins game, but “Wright’s explosiveness and burst are a perfect fit for the current trend in the NFL,” according to PFF’s Sam Monson.
In week five, after Achane left the game, Wright saw 13 total opportunities, including two rush attempts inside of the red zone. While he didn’t see any targets in the passing game, he still showcased his explosiveness and had a role worth monitoring.
Wright’s workload earned him 8.1 expected fantasy points, and he scored 8.6 on the week. More importantly, while the workload went to Mostert, he managed fewer yards on six more carries and scored only 11.8 fantasy points in the contest, thanks to a pair of catches for 18 yards. However, tracking his usage, he should have scored closer to 12.9 xFP.
On the week, Wright scored 0.56 fantasy points over expectation while Moster scored -1.10 FPOE.
Mostert will likely still be given a healthy workload after the bye, but Wright has earned a slice of this backfield. Expect his explosiveness and perfect fit for the Dolphin’s ground game to earn him a juicy role later in the season. A beautiful bench stash with spot-start flex appeal. He’s likely either on waivers or can be acquired for cheap.
Jordan Addison
Addison has largely flown under fantasy radars due to missing most of three weeks with injury. It doesn’t hurt that he routinely lives in Justin Jefferson’s shadow, and rightly so. Jefferson is one of the premiere receiving threats in the game, but Addison has proven he can be a thorn in the side of opposing secondaries in his own right.
Across his injury-riddled start of the season, Addison has earned 16 targets and he’s caught nine of them for 143 yards and a trip to paydirt. He’s averaging an alluring 12.0 fantasy points per game and is likely able to be bought cheaply after Sam Darnold’s dud of a game.
Being on a bye, as teams are starting to feel a little playoff push pressure, can present an additional opportunity to buy Addison for a little discount.
Addison’s “behind the scenes” stats show how attractive of a fantasy asset he could be. Despite playing in only three games, Addison has commanded 23.8% of the team’s air yards that’s to a lucrative 17.3 average depth of target. In other words, Darnold is looking Addison’s way deep down the field.
He’s been the first read on 26.4% of his routes and is seeing a target on 23% of his routes. He’s converging 50% of his air yards and averaging 2.01 yards per route run. Essentially, Addison has been very efficient with his opportunities and, with Aaron Jones likely sidelined for a little while with injury, he’s in line for some additional work.
Situations to monitor: Tank Dell, Nick Chubb
Week 6 Sell-High Players
Tank Bigsby
I have openly been the world’s biggest and harshest Bigsby critic. I am not too proud to admit, he is a better running back than I originally believed coming out of college.
His burst has been surprising and he looks faster on the field than I have seen him look since his freshman year at Auburn. With his powerful frame and aggressive running style, he could become a league winner if the dice roll falls correctly.
He has earned more work. He has been the better running back this season than Travis Etienne.
However, Doug Pederson has come out and said “Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game. That’s just the way games go.”
It’s worth noting that Bigsby got most of the run after Etienne left after aggravating his shoulder injury, supporting Pederson’s claim that Etienne remains the guy.
Bigsby still does not have command of the passing game work, catching only one pass in week five. Meanwhile, Etienne caught six passes.
Fresh off the best game of his career, Bigsby scored 13 fantasy points over expectation. He’s carved out a role and presents weekly flex opportunities. But the high-value opportunities likely will still run through Etienne.
Assuming Etienne’s shoulder holds up, there’s an obvious positive and negative regression switch to be expected here.
Unless you also have Etienne on your roster, you’re likely best served to sell Bigsby at his highest value and solidify your roster.
Garrett Wilson
Run away from this circus.
Wilson is a very talented wide receiver who has had a list of excuses made for him longer than Santa checks twice every Christmas.
He leads the league in targets with 57 and yet he’s averaging nearly the same fantasy points per game (14.5) as Wan’Dale Robinson (13.8).
He should be better than this with this much opportunity. This isn’t just one season, it’s three.
Since his rookie season, Wilson has had two, yes two weeks where he finished as a WR1. In other words, he has finished as a WR1 in less than 10% of his games played.
He ranks third in expected fantasy points per game and is currently the WR23 in fantasy points per game.
Now, ordinarily, I’d be all over this as a screaming buy-low due to positive regression, but 39% of his fantasy production from the season just came in one game. In that game, he saw 22 targets and finished -9.8 FPOE.
All the red flags are there that this just isn’t working for Wilson.
He ranks 48th in YAC per reception and 70th in air yards per target. At this point, it’s completely fair to doubt whether it will ever come together for Wilson.
It’s worth noting he has an excellent ROS strength of schedule and could very well explode. So do not trade him for less than he’s worth.
Trade him away for a WR option a little more reliable, and maybe add a nice little running back or flex option as well.
Situations to monitor: D’Andre Swift, Marvin Harrison Jr.
