Good news, everyone! Passing touchdown totals per week have been increasing!
Week 1 saw only 33 total passing touchdowns, with 36 being thrown in week two. Week 3 exploded for a 136% increase in passing totals (49).
In other words, sample sizes appear to be rounding out to more of a seasonal mean, and things will become more and more predictable, right? After all, who didn’t see Malik Willis suddenly looking like he knew how to play the quarterback position? Okay, okay. Yes, the NFL is still drunk from a very wild summer.
Still, some patterns are starting to unfold with three weeks of data. What do they call four weeks of patterns in NFL data? A trend.
So, expected fantasy points and usage patterns start to become a little more sticky as the season goes on, and the clear buy low/sell high players are starting to make themselves known. Who should you sell for top dollar? Who is worth buying low and getting a healthy return on investment? Let’s get after it!
Week 4 Buy-Low Players
JAYDEN REED, WR GREEN BAY PACKERS
Reed is one of the most electric playmakers with the ball in his hand that the league has to offer. Good news! Jordan Love is coming back—maybe not this week, but very soon.
Willis’ flash of competence showed the Packers there was no reason to rush back their franchise quarterback.
So, usually, with expected fantasy points, the starting place for buying low is looking at players who are scoring substantially fewer fantasy points than they should be. However, according to my opportunity-based model, Reed leads all WRs in fantasy points over expectation (+8.23). So why should I try to acquire Reed?
Well, his current role is only a meager 8.67 xFP/g, and he’s seen only one red zone target. After his amazing Week 1 performance, he’s averaging 16.9 fp/g, and he’s done so on only 10 total receptions. In other words, he’s ready to explode!
He led the team in targets last week, and the current belief is that Love should return this week. That means there’s a strong chance of higher quality opportunity and more fantasy output in store for Reed. Snag him now and dance to the fantasy bank later!
DRAKE LONDON, WR ATLANTA FALCONS
This offense is starting to come together. Kirk Cousins is starting to move around in the pocket more, and he appears to be trusting his repaired Achilles injury from last season.
Through three games, London leads the Falcons in targets and receptions. He ranks just behind Darnell Mooney in team air yards and receiving yards. His six red zone targets also lead the team.
In other words, London is averaging 13.2 fp/g while this offense is learning how to gel. Plus, he’s surrounded by weapons to keep him from being the primary focus of the opposing team’s defenses.
Despite ranking 22nd in the league in pass attempts through three games, Cousins is still completing around 20 passes per game, giving London plenty of opportunity to sustain a steady PPR floor and even have multi-touchdown weeks. With a soft schedule ahead, it’s all systems go for London going forward.
Players to watch: Rhamondre Stevenson, Roschon Johnson, Tyler Badie
Week 4 Sell-High Players
JK DOBBINS, RB LA CHARGERS
According to my model, Dobbins currently ranks 32nd in xFP/g (11.2) and is averaging 17.1 fp/g. He ranks just behind Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, James Cook, and Saquon Barkley in fantasy points over expectation.
His fantasy output is sustainable for someone scoring only 0.35 fantasy points per opportunity with Gus Edwards. He’s split red zone opportunities with Edwards right down the middle.
| Opportunities per game | xFP | FPPO | RZ Opportunities | |
| JK Dobbins | 16.3 | 11.2 | 0.35 | 4 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 6.8 | 0.11 | 4 |
I don’t think anyone would sanely say that Edwards is a threat to take over the backfield at this point. But with only seven total targets on the year and a 60-40 split on work with Edwards, can you trust Dobbins to sustain his value?
With an injury to Herbert handicapping the offense, Dobbins likely offers even less touchdown equity than his current 1.06 xTD/g average. It’s time to maximize your ROI.
CHUBA HUBBARD, RB CAROLINA PANTHERS
Is Andy Dalton legit with this Panthers offense? Well, maybe, maybe not. By this point in his career, it’s pretty clear that Dalton is what he is.
He can manage the offense, make correct reads regularly, and get the ball to wide receivers. Week three, Hubbard exploded for 114 rushing yards and 55 receiving yards.
Once Bryce Young was removed from the offense, opposing defenses were forced to respect the passing game a little more. This opened up an amazing opportunity for Hubbard.
Still, with the news that highly-touted rookie Jonathan Brooks is on the cusp of returning from his 2023 ACL tear, Hubbard’s workload after week four is in jeopardy. Only averaging an xFP of 12.9 with full command of the backfield doesn’t inspire much confidence that he will be more than a bench piece moving forward.
Include Hubbard as a throw-in and try to move up for a better skill position player and bolster that roster for the championship run!
Players to watch: Dallas Goedert, Sam Darnold, Derrick Henry
