After week two, how’s everyone feeling? The injury bug has spread through the NFL and fantasy teams are scrambling for those valuable early-season wins before managers have to dance around the bye-week carousel.
Notable players injured who are expected to miss extended time include:
- AJ Brown
- Cooper Kupp
- Puka Nacua
- Isiah Pacheco
- Christian McCaffrey
- Tua Tagovaiola
With those injuries among the many shaking the foundations of some fantasy teams, buying low or selling high on players to retool lineups is key!
By utilizing my opportunity-based expected fantasy points model and looking ahead, I intend to find players who are primed for both positive and negative regression to the means.
With that said, let’s go!
Week 3 Buy Low
Jaylen Warren
It seems like this is always the case for Warren. Despite having nearly half the opportunities as Najee Harris, he’s scoring nearly twice as many fantasy points per opportunity.
xFP | FPOE | Opp. | FPPO | |
Najee Harris | 13.0 | -4.3 | 39 | 0.22 |
Jaylen Warren | 6.5 | -0.4 | 15 | 0.41 |
In week two, Harris out touched Warren 18 to 11, but Warren paced the backfield in snaps, 32 to 30.
It’s worth noting that Warren was banged up last week and only touched the ball four times. Warren ranked 12th among 55 running backs in yards after contact per attempt.
His upcoming matchup against the Chargers doesn’t project well on the ground. Harbaugh has retooled that team’s defensive front and they rank sixth in rush defense but have allowed 341 yards and 43 receptions in the receiving game.
Warren’s trade value could jump after another solid week.
Ja’Marr Chase
This one might get a little pricy, I agree. Still, the vibes around Chase are not good right now.
He’s seen only one target inside of the red zone and Joe Burrow looks completely incapable of getting him the ball. Defenses have been swarming Chase and daring Burrow to beat them over the top.
Zac Taylor seems completely incompetent as a play caller. He has routinely shown no ability to adjust to opposing defenses and insists on keeping Chase close to the line of scrimmage.
Looking at the numbers, Chase is tied for 29th in targets and has a lowly 5.5 aDot. In fact, his target share (17.5%) is lower than Mike Gesicki’s (20.6%).
🔒Ja’Marr Chase SMASH START is Here!!
— Dynasty Dad (@DynastyDadFF) September 18, 2024
Commanders DEF has been BEAT down the last 19 weeks (Most FPPG to WRs)
2023
💥34.6 FPPG (13-186-1.7)
👀 11 WRs over 19 Pts
2024
💥44.1 FPPG (15-186-3.0)
👀 3 WRs over 20 FPTS in 2 games
💰BUY LOW NOWpic.twitter.com/DJNbMh40Zn https://t.co/ASXyjUpGTy
There’s nothing like a get-right game to shake off the rust from his holdout and a great way to remind his coach exactly who he is.
Despite being strapped by inept quarterback play last season, Chase still put up over 1,200 receiving yards and scored 7 TDs. Better days are coming and this is a great chance to snag a league-winning asset at a discounted value.
Players to watch: Brock Purdy, Brian Thomas, Rome Odunze
Week 3 Sell High
Rashid Shaheed
THIS. OFFENSE. IS. ON. FIRE!
Shaheed is seeing a lucrative 46.1 of the Saints’ air yards. He and Derek Carr have developed quite a rapport.
This may be a bit of an unpopular take, but, in my opinion, you do not chase touchdowns!
Rashid Shaheed's 11 career touchdowns:
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 17, 2024
– 44-yard run
– 53-yard catch
– 76-yard punt return
– 68-yard catch
– 19-yard catch
– 34-yard catch
– 58-yard catch
– 45-yard catch
– 39-yard catch
– 59-yard catch
– 70-yard catch
While I am not quite as enamored by Chris Olave as the rest of the fantasy community, he still projects to be the alpha of the wide receiving room. However, Olave and Shaheed have only combined for 17 targets and this is the Saints offensive production in the last two games:
- 47 points week one
- 44 points week two
That’s 91 points total! That’s going to simmer down. The team has scored on, what, all 14 drives led by Carr?
This is a textbook negative regression coming to the Saints and it’s best to get ahead of this thing and capitalize on Shaheed’s ridiculous trade value before things very likely fall apart! Shaheed makes a very reasonable WR3/flex, but if you can get another good WR/flex option and a little depth in the deal. It should be a no-brainer!
Kyren Williams
Williams is currently the RB10 in xFP according to my model. Why would I be advocating for trading him away? Especially now that he’s in line for a greater potential target share with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp sidelined for a while with injuries.
Oh, and did I forget to mention, he’s the RB3 in xTD/game according to my model? That’s exactly why I say sell, sell, sell!
With scuttlebutt coming out that the Rams should trade Matthew Stafford as the ground is collapsing beneath their feet, Williams’ touchdown equity will take a massive hit. An even bigger hit than what’s expected without Kupp and Nacu helping this normally high-octane offense serve as fertilizer for fantasy production.
Most carries this season without a rush of 10+ yards:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 17, 2024
1. Kyren Williams (30)
2. Zach Charbonnet (22)
3. Javonte Williams (19)
Currently, Williams is averaging a measly 2.5 yards per carry and just over 4 yards per reception. That’s not going to continue to cut it. With injuries across the offensive line starting to pile up, he’s in danger of having the ground collapse beneath his feet as well.
Players to watch: Mark Andrews, Tyler Lockett, Rachaad White
SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
- Travis Kelce – No no, do NOT drop Kelce. Do not sell him for pennies on the dollar. And do not pass go or collect $200 if you do so! The fact of the matter is, he’s only caught four balls on seven targets for 39 yards. I would like some more ketchup on this fantasy hot dog. Monitor how the targets shift with the Pacheco injury. Patrick Mahomes will likely have to sling the rock more.
- Jerome Ford – His entire allure was that Nick Chubb was out and he was going to get fed more than a tilted hungry, hungry, hippo gameboard. He was outworked by D’Onta Foreman last week and the clock is ticking on Ford’s value going forward. Consider getting out of this mess ahead of time, but, at the very least, wait and see what happens in week three.