The running back landscape in the NFL changes quicker than that of any other position in the league. It’s vital to know when the right time is to buy, sell, or hold a certain running back in dynasty fantasy football.
In the realm of dynasty, youth is a coveted attribute. As running backs approach the ages of 25, 26, and 27 – the dynasty community typically begins contemplating selling these assets as their future becomes more uncertain.
The prices of three running backs stand out above the rest: Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Travis Etienne. The question is, which of these players should we buy, sell, or hold in dynasty fantasy football?
BUY
ISIAH PACHECO, RB, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
In some cases, draft capital does not matter. The Kansas City Chiefs got an absolute steal out of Isiah Pacheco in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Pacheco is about identical size to another running back mentioned in this article, Travis Etienne – considering Pacheco is also 5-foot-10, but a pound heavier at 216 pounds. Pacheco is not only tough to bring down, but he shows an incredible combination of size, strength, and blazing speed. This is highlighted by the fact that he ran a 4.37 40-yard dash (99th-percentile), good for a 98th-percentile speed score, along with being 93rd-percentile in the bench press.
Jerrick McKinnon has played the role of a receiver out of the backfield for the Chiefs over the last few years, but he is still unsigned by Kansas City – indicating they may move on from the 10-year veteran. With no competition added to the running back room over the 2024 offseason, Pacheco looks to take on a huge role in an offense that has ranked 11th and 5th over the past two seasons in total fantasy points for running backs in PPR leagues (per Draft Sharks).
Kansas City added offensive firepower at the wide receiver position this offseason by signing Hollywood Brown from the Arizona Cardinals and drafting the young stud out of the University of Texas in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, Xavier Worthy. With more weapons at Patrick Mahomes’ disposal – opposing defenses will now have to keep an eye on Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown. In theory, this may open up the field for Isiah Pacheco and the run game for the Chiefs.
Pacheco has truly developed both the rushing and receiving aspects of his game. Since Pacheco was drafted, he is 12th in yards per carry (4.7) among the 49 running backs that have had 200 or more carries over the past two seasons (per Draft Sharks).
Regarding his improvement in the passing game, Pacheco was 11th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) receiving grade and recorded the second-highest catch rate amongst all running backs last year. In his rookie year, Pacheco caught only 13 passes.
However, he was far more present in the passing game this past season with 44 receptions. With McKinnon on his way out, Pacheco will be getting an even greater workload in the receiving game – in addition to what he already brings as a rusher. The sample we did get of what Pacheco’s usage would be like without McKinnon in the mix looked solid, too – as Pacheco averaged a 14.9% target share and 22.1 fantasy points per game in those contests.
Pacheco recorded the eighth-highest opportunity share and seventh-most red zone touches amongst all running backs last year, emphasizing Andy Reid’s trust in him as their lead back with no added competition. Pacheco uses elite vision, poised patience, and a strong leg drive to muscle his way through opposing defenses. Just in 2023, Pacheco posted the 11th-highest breakaway run rate – allowing him to finish the season with the 11th-most breakaway runs.
The Chiefs have four of their five starting offensive lineman returning next season and spent a second-round pick on the 6-foot-5, 325-pound Kingsley Suamataia out of BYU to further bolster their protection. The BYU product’s combination of athleticism and size earned him a relative athletic score (RAS) of 9.40 out of 10 – putting him in the top-100 in RAS amongst nearly 1,400 offensive lineman since 1987. Suamataia did not allow a single sack in 361 pass attempts back in 2022, plus entered the 2023 college football season as PFF’s sixth-highest graded lineman – a great pickup for Kansas City.
With McKinnon out of the picture, the Chiefs’ running back room will be spearheaded entirely by Isiah Pacheco, who can take advantage of an experienced offensive line. In one of the best offenses in the NFL, Pacheco has a chance to do serious damage yet again in the 2024 NFL season – as well as blossom in the passing game.
For a more comprehensive analysis – Pacheco has logged nine regular season games in which he recorded three or more receptions, eight of which occurred during the 2023 season. In these games, Pacheco averaged 18 fantasy points per game in full-PPR leagues.
If Andy Reid continues to utilize Pacheco’s versatile skill set in both running and passing situations, we could see a significant boost in his overall performance this season and beyond. Furthermore, Pacheco’s proficiency as a pass blocker is instrumental, often ensuring he remains on the field.
Despite other running backs like Kenneth Walker, James Cook, and Rachaad White being valued ahead of Isiah Pacheco, I firmly believe in selecting Pacheco over any of them. I would rank him as high as a top-10 running back in dynasty and redraft. Considering Pacheco’s significant upside, the Kansas City running back’s price presents a tremendous value.
SELL
KYREN WILLIAMS, RB, LOS ANGELES RAMS
Kyren Williams exploded last season and was deemed a league-winning waiver wire pickup by many in the NFL community – along with Puka Nacua, of course. But there are a few reasons why I am skeptical of Williams in the future.
Being a smaller back (5-foot-9, 194 pounds) coming out of the University of Notre Dame, Williams was not selected in the 2022 NFL Draft until late in the fifth round. Fortunately for him, Williams was drafted to the dynamic Los Angeles Rams offense spearheaded by the offensive mind of head coach Sean McVay.
Williams did not do much his rookie season, but was given HEAVY usage in 2023, as he was first amongst all running backs in snap share at 83.9 percent. This allowed Williams to go on a tear and rack up 1,144 rushing yards, the third-most rushing yards in the league – in addition to 15 total touchdowns.
That is all great of course, but the issue is the Rams decided to use a 2024 third-round pick in order to draft the star running back out of the University of Michigan, Blake Corum. Corum is a little larger (5-foot-8, 205 pounds) than Williams and is coming off a collegiate career in which he scored 45 touchdowns over his final two seasons as a Wolverine – this is not a Tank Bigsby – Travis Etienne situation (we’ll get into that later).
Williams ranked top five in carries within the 10-yard line and top ten in carries inside the 5-yard line this past season (per Draft Sharks). Corum poses a legitimate threat near the goal line and stands a chance to poach some touchdowns from Williams.
Corum ran a 4.53 40-yard dash (70th percentile), tested in the 93rd percentile for bench presses and scored a 94th percentile agility score at the 2024 NFL Combine. For comparison, Williams ran a 4.65 40-yard dash (30th percentile), earning himself a 9th-percentile speed score, along with a 51st percentile agility score.
On top of that, head coach Sean McVay even went as far as stating that the reason the Los Angeles Rams drafted Corum is because he believes “there’s a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams.”
I may be wrong – but Corum seems to be the better running back prospect coming out of college and is bigger, faster, stronger, and more agile than Williams is. Teams do not typically burn third-round draft picks on running backs they do not plan on utilizing and with Williams’ smaller size, he’s far from the ideal workhorse back.
The injury history is quite muddy for Williams as well – the summer before his rookie season in 2022, Kyren broke his foot at practice. With the heavy workload last season, Williams ended up on the injured reserve before Week 7 with a high ankle sprain and did not return until Week 12.
In addition to that, Williams suffered a metacarpal fracture in his hand during the NFC Wild Card game in January and received surgery afterward. Williams has had several injuries over his short NFL career already and Draft Sharks’ injury analysis shows an 88.7 percent chance of an injury in 2024.
Fast forward to this summer – Williams has missed time during the Rams’ offseason program due to yet another foot injury. Corum is taking his time to learn McVay’s offense and his head coach is taking notes, emphasizing his “great instincts as a runner, good feel in the pass game, great toughness”
After the Los Angeles Rams wrapped up mini-camp, McVay even added that he’s “pleased with a lot of guys, but Blake Corum has really stood out”. It’s hard to imagine McVay completely neglecting Corum in his rookie season considering the draft capital they spent on him and the promising comments he’s made so far about the ex-Wolverine.
I expect to see Corum gradually eat into Williams’ snapshare, workload, and touchdowns. The Rams clearly value Corum and he does seem to be the better prospect coming out of college than Williams was.
Of course, like any rookie, they can ultimately disappoint. I suspect that Williams’ impressive season was primarily due to the abundance of opportunities available, as opposed to the talent he actually possesses.
Nothing will take away the anomaly of a season from him, but darker days may be ahead for Kyren Williams. With less opportunity, scoring points may be harder to come by.
For running backs, being a viable pass catcher is what separates you from the rest of the pack. The NFL’s most elite running backs such as Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Travis Etienne – are all extremely dynamic in the passing game. Unfortunately for Williams, he did not show any signs of life in the receiving game.
Of the 43 running backs that received 30 or more targets, Williams ranked dead last in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade. Williams also placed 41st among those 43 running backs in yards per target (per Draft Sharks).
In 2023, Williams put up average ranks of 24th in targets and 21st in yards per reception amongst all running backs. As a result, Williams finished 28th in receptions and 32nd in receiving yards.
Additionally, Williams was just 37th in catch rate. To wrap up his metrics, Williams was also 28th in breakaway run rate and 20th in breakaway runs.
Williams lacked a significant presence in the receiving game and largely benefited from the extensive opportunities he was given. Many reliable, undersized running backs excel as both runners and receivers. Without Williams heavily involved in the passing game, his fantasy production will depend largely on opportunities and touchdowns, which may decrease over time with the emergence of Blake Corum.
HOLD
TRAVIS ETIENNE, RB, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Those who held Travis Etienne after missing his entire rookie year were ultimately rewarded. Etienne missed his entire first NFL season in 2021 due to a Lisfranc injury – however, he followed that up with two consecutive seasons of 1,400-plus total yards. The only other running back to accomplish that feat over the last two seasons is none other than the San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey.
It should come as no surprise either, given that Etienne was a top prospect coming out of Clemson University and was selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the 25th overall pick back in 2021. He put up two straight seasons of 1,600-plus rushing yards and had a 12.2 percent target share (87th percentile) as a Clemson Tiger.
Etienne walked into the NFL draft holding the NCAA FBS record for most career games with a touchdown as well as being the ACC record holder for rushing yards, total touchdowns, rushing touchdowns, and points. Etienne is also one of 12 players in FBS history with over 4,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards – and his 4,952 rushing yards was the second-most out of all 12 of those players.
It’s safe to say Etienne’s game has fit in seamlessly within the NFL. Not only does he bring production on the ground, but Etienne is also a reliable receiver – he boasted the sixth-most receptions (58), routes run (336), and total touchdowns (12) amongst all running backs in the NFL last season.
To add on to his playmaking resume – Etienne had the 15th-most yards per route run, ninth-most yards per reception, seventh-most targets, and fifth-most receiving yards (amongst all running backs) in 2023. Etienne boasts solid size (5-foot-10, 215 pounds) for such an explosive back, making it tough on opposing defenders attempting to tackle him – it makes sense that he had the fourth-most tackles evaded (69) in the league last year.
More significantly, Etienne recorded all of those metrics behind the worst run-blocking offensive line in the NFL last season. This makes what Etienne did last season that much more impressive.
Etienne has been a model of durability since missing his entire rookie year, playing in every game for the Jacksonville Jaguars over the last two seasons and even ranking fourth in carries across the NFL in 2023. Nonetheless, critics argue for selling Etienne without considering the toll taken by his extensive workload behind a mediocre offensive line, which likely impacted his efficiency and performance down the stretch.
Recently, Doug Pederson has made comments that point to reducing Etienne’s workload this upcoming season – which has fantasy football managers concerned. However, this should be looked at in a different light.
By taking the load off of Etienne, he has the potential to increase his efficiency in 2024. With 47 fewer carries in 2022, Etienne was able to produce 5.1 yards per carry – in comparison to 3.8 in 2023.
Ironically, Etienne rushed for 117 more rushing yards with a smaller workload back in 2022. Etienne brought his receiving game to another level this past season – if he can maintain his role as a receiver and increase his effectiveness on the ground, he may have his best season yet ahead of him.
“Year 3 with us in the offense and just seeing his growth, I think there’s more out there that he can get yard-wise,” Pederson said. “It’d definitely be an emphasis utilizing him more so in the run game and making sure that those yards that are there, that we’re doing the right things, we’re hitting the right holes, we’re anticipating defenders and blocking schemes and all that kind of stuff. And then being able to take that wear and tear off him.”
After the 2023 NFL Draft, many assumed Tank Bigsby would come in and take work away from Etienne. Those theories were quickly put to rest as Etienne posted a snap share of 74.3 percent last season, which was the sixth-highest amongst all running backs in 2023.
Even the snaps Bigsby did get were atrocious – having dropped two passes that turned into interceptions (a third that was just missed by the defender) and two fumbles, while Etienne did not have a single fumble last season. The Jaguars have not added any competition at the running back position over the 2024 offseason, showing their confidence in Etienne heading into next season.
Jacksonville struggled last season with inconsistent play and injuries on the offensive line. Etienne still managed to average 16.6 fantasy points per game (seventh-most amongst RBs) and was the RB3 overall behind that same banged-up front.
Lucky for Etienne, the Jaguars signed Mitch Morse to be their new center – a nine-year starter for the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills who did not allow a single sack last season. Morse comes to Jacksonville to replace Luke Fortner, who allowed 4.5 sacks last season.
With a healthy offensive line and the addition of a Pro Bowl center, Mitch Morse, Etienne could be in for another great season in 2024. Do not overthink this one.
Etienne is one of the more elite running backs in the NFL and I am taking him over players such as Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane (as much as I love him dearly), and Kyren Williams. Travis Etienne should be valued as a top-five running back in dynasty fantasy football.
OVERVIEW
While Travis Etienne and Isiah Pacheco both have the potential to be top five at the position, managers should proceed with caution when drafting Kyren Williams heading into 2024.
Once the Rams realize Blake Corum could be a better version of Kyren Williams, it may no longer be the one-man show out of the backfield we saw in Los Angeles last season. Even if Corum does not have an immediate opportunity to demonstrate his abilities – Williams, at just 23 years old and with a history of injuries, raises concerns for his durability as a smaller running back.
I am keeping a firm grip on my shares of Isiah Pacheco and Travis Etienne. In leagues I do not own them in, I am doing everything in my power to acquire them.
I deemed Pacheco the “buy” and Etienne the “hold” as Etienne is going to be more expensive, while Pacheco presents the greater value. This is your chance to think about turning those shares of Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker, James Cook, and Rachaad White into a player with more upside (and less competition for touches) like Isiah Pacheco or Travis Etienne.
