As the 2024 fantasy football season approaches, identifying mid-round WR breakout candidates can give fantasy football managers a championship-caliber edge. In recent years, we have seen fourth to fifth-round (some late-third) wide receivers help managers kickstart a legendary playoff and championship run.
These mid-round receivers may have already “broken out,” but have a prime opportunity to leap to their next gear in fantasy. Past examples include 2019 Chris Godwin, 2020 Calvin Ridley, 2021 Diontae Johnson, 2022 Jaylen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 2023 Keenan Allen.
Here are some key targets poised for a “loaded” breakout season, using recent trends and offseason moves:
DeVonta Smith (PHI) – ADP 26.7 (Underdog)
The star Eagles WR has seen back-to-back top-20 finishes in half- and full-PPR, with a notable WR9 PPR finish in 2022. While he seems to be going later on other platforms (No. 45 overall on Sleeper’s Big Board), Smith is being taken near the top of the third round on Underdog. FOLLOW SUIT.
The Philadelphia Eagles dismissed offensive coordinator Brian Johnson in the offseason, eventually welcoming in the innovative and crafty-minded Kellen Moore. Per Jacob Gibbs, Kellen Moore’s primary slot receiver has led the league in PPR points as the pre-snap motion man; CeeDee Lamb produced 87 of these points in 2022, with Keenan Allen posting a formidable 105 in 2023 while missing four games. CeeDee finished as WR5 in 2022, and Allen as WR8.
If a genie told you before your drafts that you could get a top 10 receiver in the third round or later, run full speed ahead. Come Christmas time, DeVonta Smith might have gotten you everything on your wish list.
George Pickens (PIT) – ADP 47.1
George Pickens is a freak of nature… but everybody already knows that. Fantasy football drafts are about landing the best value at each draft slot. That said, reach for the upside and grab George Pickens wherever you can in drafts. Do not be the guy who waits for an extra round to take him because of his ADP; Pickens is the man in Pittsburgh.
We see here that Pickens was a monster threat downfield while rarely dropping the ball; he additionally posted over 1,100 yards, catching passes from Mitchell Trubisky (oof), Kenny Pickett (ouch), and Mason Rudolph (please end this QB pain train).
The Steelers added tenured QB Russell Wilson to the team this offseason, who is a 9x Pro-Bowler and a Super Bowl champion. Sure, Russ has not provided nearly the same level of play since his early-to-mid Seattle days, but his experience and accolades are worth many more fantasy points than Pittsburgh’s recent lackluster QB play. George Pickens has not missed a game yet in his NFL career, and you shouldn’t miss a single chance to grab Pickens before his 47.1 Underdog ADP.
Jayden Reed (GB) – ADP 58.9
Alright, fine; a less obvious and dark horse candidate for a loaded breakout season. Looking at baseline numbers from his rookie season, scoring and versatility jump off the bat for Reed. He posted 793 receiving yards on 64 receptions, scoring eight times through the air and twice on the ground, where he logged 11 carries for 119 yards.
While many thought Christian Watson would be Jordan Love’s primary target, he only played nine games in 2023. Watson has had a lingering hamstring issue through the first two seasons of his NFL career, and his longevity is in great question. Look for a second-year Jayden Reed to capitalize on more volume and for Matt LaFleur to unleash the full potential of Reed’s dynamic versatility.
Chris Godwin (TB) – ADP 64.6
Why do we keep doing this with Chris Godwin, man? As evidenced in the intro, Chris Godwin has already posted a “loaded breakout” season; with an ADP of 46.0 according to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Godwin finished as PPR WR2. Now, I am not saying Godwin will repeat this in 2024, but there is a lot to be excited about for Chris Godwin this season.
Vetri attributes slot misusage to Godwin’s 2023 fantasy down year (PPR WR29 finish), referencing 26% fewer slot SNAPS for Godwin. Chris Godwin has produced all of his top-15+ finishes from primarily slot alignments, which is great news for newly hired Bucs OC Liam Coen, who has publicly said that Godwin will be moved into the slot more.
This will also be the second full season of Baker Mayfield with both Mike Evans and Godwin, which should allow all three of them to further build their chemistry en route to chasing a fourth straight NFC South title! While Godwin’s ADP falls below the sixth round and may seem lower than the purposes of this article, expect his hype and, subsequently, ADP to rise in 2024 drafts; grab him while he’s a steal!
Key Takeaways
When targeting loaded WR breakout candidates, consider their team context, the potential for increased volume, historical performance, and coordinator trends. Players stepping into more significant roles or benefiting from improved team dynamics often present the best-loaded breakout opportunities.
By focusing on these four players, you can potentially gain a significant advantage in your leagues, maximizing your chances of success in the 2024 season.
