2024 Dynasty Sleeper: Dontayvion Wicks is an Underrated Buy-Low Trade Target in an Ascending Packers Offense

Dontayvion Wicks 2024 dynasty fantasy football outlook.
Which young Packers WR is the best dynasty prospect?

Many players are valued too low in dynasty fantasy football, but one, in particular, is an absolute steal at his current price in your dynasty league. A variety of factors are considered when determining the right time to “buy low” on a player, and a young, high-upside receiver with untapped potential is Packers’ second-year wideout, Dontayvion Wicks.

The reason for targeting an undervalued player is to have them eventually increase in value. If you can get a cheap price on a solid, young player with potential, it may pay dividends for your current lineup and beyond.

Everyone knows about the electric wide receiver Jayden Reed—who shined down the stretch for the Packers last season. As we all know, Reed is quite an interesting prospect. However, his price may be slightly overvalued, considering the lack of structure in the Packers’ wide receiver room and his 64-793-8 line as a rookie.

The Packers selected a phenomenal 2023 rookie class. However, I am targeting Wicks at his current price tag. One of the main reasons for this buy-low opportunity is how much cheaper he is than Reed and maybe even Christian Watson after his injury-filled sophomore season.

WHO IS DONTAYVION WICKS?

If you aren’t familiar with his game, please allow me to introduce you to Dontayvion Wicks, the Green Bay Packers’ 2023 5th-round pick out of the University of Virginia.

Wicks’s smooth release, elite burst, and short-area quickness allow him to gain eye-popping yards after catch plays. According to Player Profiler, Dontayvion has a 90th-percentile burst score and an 83rd-percentile catch radius.

The young Packers’ wide receiver did not come out of nowhere. Wicks has shown previously he can produce with very little opportunity. As a 20-year-old at Virginia, Wicks had 1,203 receiving yards on just 57 receptions (good for an absurd 21.1 yards per reception) and nine receiving touchdowns.

DONTAYVION WICKS DYNASTY OUTLOOK

Wicks’ game seems to translate to the NFL just fine, too—as he was sixth in yards per route run amongst rookie pass-catchers in 11 personnel last season.

In a young Green Bay Packers offense attached to an ascending quarterback in Jordan Love, I am taking every opportunity to figure out who will be the most valuable pass-catcher.

Many fans of the NFL believe Christian Watson has a firm hold on his role in Green Bay. Still, I would argue otherwise. Watson has an extensive injury history—he missed three games his rookie year in 2022 for a re-occurring right hamstring injury. Then, he missed eight more games this past season due to hamstring injuries. Watson has shown flashes throughout his career, but Wicks seems to have the best chance to make a name for himself in this offense because the best ability is availability.

Romeo Doubs has also been decent, but Reed and Wicks have much more upside for Jordan Love. Towards the end of the season, it became clear that Reed and Wicks were the team’s best receivers. Love threw nine touchdown passes over the last four weeks of the season—Reed and Wicks each caught three touchdowns, combining for two-thirds of his passing scores over that span.

You might ask how many touchdown catches Doubs had over that span. The answer: one. Where was Christian Watson? Unfortunately, he was on the shelf for the remainder of the season.

What Wicks did towards the end of the 2023 season should not go unnoticed. Because of Watson’s frequent injuries, Wicks recorded 12 more snaps (458) than Watson (446) did last season. This next statistic may seem somewhat specific, but it caught my attention:

We can all speculate about a certain player in hopes of him increasing in value, but it is never a guarantee. One source I will trust is Packers’ head coach, Matt LaFleur, who is clearly a fan of Wicks’ talent. In this press conference, LaFleur is asked about the similarities he sees between long-time Green Bay legend Davante Adams and Wicks.

This press conference speaks volumes to me:

I’d say that player comparison isn’t an incredibly “hot” take coming from an NFL head coach—Wicks had more receiving yards per route run versus man coverage than Davante Adams did last season. Not only that, but he nearly paced Adams in receiving yards per route run versus zone coverage, as well.

Per Football Insights

If that doesn’t convince you, Wicks was amongst the elites in another one of my personal favorite metrics: first downs per route run. The receiving yards per game will come with more opportunity, but Wicks performed exceptionally well in this particular statistic.

In fact – the only players that recorded higher first downs per route run than Wicks last season were Rashee Rice, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk.

Good company to be in.

Per Fantasy Points Data

Multiple other metrics regarding Wicks stood out to me. Wicks was 13th in QB rating per target, 18th in fantasy points per target, 24th in yards per route run, 11th in yards per target, 25th in yards per reception, and 28th in true catch rate. Amongst all wide receivers last season, Wicks was also 10th in route win rate, and fourth overall in win rate versus man coverage.

DONTAYVION WICKS DYNASTY TRADE VALUE SUMMARY

I would spend as early as a mid-second rounder to acquire Dontayvion Wicks in dynasty leagues, but you can likely get him for cheaper. I am willing to move one of DeAndre Hopkins, Quentin Johnston, Jerry Jeudy, or even Wicks’ fellow teammate, Romeo Doubs, to acquire Wicks.

If Wicks takes off like I believe he will this upcoming 2024 NFL season, this may be the lowest price you can acquire him. The Wolf is also high on Wicks ranking the wideout at WR58 (+11 vs. ECR) in his 2024 Fantasy Rankings.

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