Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford sniffed a 50/50 split in carries against the 49ers in Week 6 (12-to-17), with Hunt finding the endzone and finishing as a low-end RB1 in half-PPR.
But if he’s available on your waiver wire, the question has to be asked: Can he be trusted as a premium add off the fantasy football Week 7 waiver wire?
Not to get too Cris Collinsworth-esque, but now, here’s a guy who couldn’t hit RB2 territory after Week 5 last season, including finishing no higher than an RB5 during the last five games.
It looked too much like Kareem hit the running back cliff last year, and after one solid game, the numbers will show that we shouldn’t bet that he’s found his rhythm again.
JEROME FORD STILL A STEP AHEAD
Hunt’s 3.9 yards per carry against San Francisco was only a tenth of a yard more than his career-low 3.8 for the 2022 season. Meanwhile, Ford notched a full yard per carry more while remaining clearly ahead of Hunt in related metrics.
Among running backs with at least as many carries as Hunt, Ford ranks 7th in yards-after-contact per attempt (3.7), to Hunt’s 34th (2.64).
Ford is 8th in Breakaway Yards Percentage (40) to Hunt (22.2), and is 17th in Elusive Rating (79.7) to Hunt’s 59th (9.8), all metrics per PFF.
Yes, it’s a small sample size, but it doesn’t negate the downward trend we saw from Kareem last season, while also showing that Ford has been handling his own as Cleveland’s primary ball carrier.
As seen above, Ford also dominated third down, giving him the edge as a pass-catcher. Over the last two games with Deshaun Watson sidelined, Ford has seven receptions to Hunt’s three, and based on Ford’s snap percentage on third down, his reception total should remain higher going forward.
HOW TO APPROACH KAREEM HUNT ON THE WAIVER WIRE
There isn’t a lot to hold on to as far as upside, but there is a bit there.
To some surprise, Hunt was actually the goal-line back over Nick Chubb during his last really effective season in 2021. We haven’t really gotten to see much of anything as far as goal-line usage out of the Browns the last two weeks because the offense hasn’t run goal-to-go plays without Watson under center. However, he did take 75% of short-yardage snaps against the 49ers.
So, though there is a shot Kareem gets goal-line usage, I’m not betting FAAB on it.
Hunt has the potential to put up games like Week 6 because the Browns are sixth in run play percentage, per teamrankings.com. But he could also give you stretches of being unable to crack RB4 territory, like the end of last season.
He is rosterable as a handcuff but should not be very sought-after. An injury to Ford could make Hunt a volume-based FLEX play, though it would remain to be seen how much work Pierre Strong Jr. would get.
All things considered, it’s a safer bet that Kareem Hunt is more likely to hurt than help your fantasy lineup moving forward, outside of the deepest of leagues. There is no league-winning upside unless he proves to be an anomaly and finds magic that had dissipated in 2022.
With that in mind, I wouldn’t spend more than 5% FAAB, maybe 10% if you’re desperate at the running back position with six teams on the bye week and several injuries at the position. If you get outbid, it likely shouldn’t hurt your fantasy season.
Hunt sits outside the RB2 zone at RB25 on The Wolf’s Week 7 Fantasy Rankings.
