The Workload Report: 2023 Fantasy Football Week 5 Snaps, Targets, Volume, Air Yards, Results

Let's take a deep dive into Week 5.

Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy football success. The Workload Report was created to help visualize the crucial snaps, targets, touches, air yards, and other advanced usage metrics that matter.

The Workload Report is broken into three distinct sections: opportunity, production, and results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and discover where these coveted fantasy points are coming from in Week 5 for every team. Each week, we’ll highlight several categories and dive into which players showed up and why. Then, at the bottom, I’ll give one important takeaway from 10-12 NFL teams.

In addition to the screenshots below, check out the full version of The Workload Report to dig into all the data yourself.

If you have any feedback, feel free to hit me up on Twitter, and we can talk shop!

DOWNLOAD: THE WORKLOAD REPORT – WEEK 5

(Sort by Team, How to Use, Team Totals)

WEEK 5 FANTASY ALL-STARS

Dedicated to the players who break 30 PPR points each week

Out of Body Experience: These performances are true outlier games, typically involving 3-4 touchdowns, double digit receptions, 200 rushing/receiving yards or combinations of all three. Ja’Marr Chase and DJ Moore are your “had to have it” guys of the week.

Just Another Week in the Life: These players had awesome performances this week, however their scoring output wasn’t really that crazy relative to the rest of their season’s performances. Travis Etienne and Tyreek Hill both had 30+ points and should have more in their future.

Seems like an Outlier: This type of performance doesn’t happen that often, but when you look at the box score, it just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Zack Moss has his best performance of the year, in the first week that Jonathan Taylor is back? Make it make sense!

SAVED BY THE ENDZONE

These players may have a high fantasy score, but most of it was due to TD “luck.”

Random Tight End of the Week: It seems like every single week, there are a handful of Tight Ends who show up in the box score for one catch, a few yards, and a TD. Putting too much weight into these performances is hard, so be weary if targeting them on the waiver wire. This week, Tommy Tremble, Foster Moreau, and Zach Ertz fit this description.

Don’t Fall in Love with the TDs: These players might have had a “get right” week in the fantasy football world. Generally speaking, they are good players that we want more production from. However, purely TDs only is not the production we want. Don’t chase the steam on George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, TuTu Atwell, Chris Olave, and Kavontae Turpin just yet.

A TOUCHDOWN AWAY FROM BREAKING THE SLATE

Had any of these guys hit paydirt, we may have been hearing a lot more about them this week.

On the Edge of Glory: These players had great usage and production this week. However, they just couldn’t get into the box for six more points. We should feel confident that they had a good performance without the TDs, because each of them has an underlying stat or two that makes us excited. DeAndre Hopkins (0.93 WOPR & 64% Air Yards), Calvin Ridley (0.98 RACR), Cooper Kupp (35% target share in 1st game back), AJ Brown (16.9 aDOT & 40%+ receiving share), and D’Andre Swift (32% USG & 18% target share) make the list in Week 5.

May Have Peaked: All things considered, these players had great performances this week, even without scoring a TD. However, some of their underlying metrics are a bit more concerning and should highlight that this performance may not indicate future success. Darren Waller (37% target share & 57% AY share need to be sticky), Kyle Pitts (Elevated WOPR and RACR in Week 5), and Josh Downs (1.8 RACR indicates a lot of YAC this week) fit this category.

DOMINATING THE DOMINATOR RATING

(Rec. Yds + Rush Yds)/(Team Rec. Yds + Team Rush Yds) + TD Share + Air Yd Share (WR/TEs) > 40%

Skewed by TDs: Dominator Rating is a metric that measures your overall team share in rushing, receiving, and TDs scored. In Weeks, where a team only scores one touchdown, that player will have a 100% TD share, which will skew the DOM number a little bit. Justice Hill (only 26% rush share), Tyjae Spears (still just a 52% snap count), and Dalton Schultz (only 26% receiving share) all have some underlying stats that don’t fully support their “dominant” rating.

Taking the Bull by the Horns: These players busted onto the scene this week and fully took over their respective backfield/receiving room. If this production continues, they should be a constant on the list each week. Breece Hall (76% rush share up from 56% rush share in Weeks 1-4), George Pickens (0.93 WOPR up from 0.6 in Weeks 1-4), Ja’Marr Chase (61% receiving share), and DJ Moore (82% receiving share) fit this build.

Consistently Dominant: This is by far the category that should get you the most excited. These guys fall into two different subcategories: either they didn’t see much change to their rushing/receiving share and finally scored some TDs, or they didn’t see much change to their DOM rating, and it’s still elite. Travis Etienne, who had a 70% rush share and 14% target share (consistent with the rest of the season) but tripled his TD season output in Week 5, really stands out this week.

AIR YARDS= FUTURE PRODUCTION

Who saw Air Yards > 35%, but fantasy share < 20% this week?

This is arguably the most impactful section each week, and I try to spend the most time parsing through the numbers. There are three different buckets that we can separate these players into:

Ready to Explode: In this bucket, I want to look for players who have seen a solid WOPR to start the year, but whose RACR has not been efficient. If the opportunity share holds, the efficiency should bubble up and create a big week. Brandon Aiyuk (down week for RACR), Garrett Wilson (on the list again…please get rid of Zach Wilson), Michael Thomas, and Zay Flowers fit into this category.

Need More Volume: These guys are seeing a big Air Yard Share, and their RACR is also relatively high. However, their number of Air Yards is actually low relative to other players. In other words, if more volume comes, more big games should be in store for Josh Reynolds, Jerry Jeudy, Michael Pittman, and Chris Olave.

Potentially Smoke & Mirrors: All of these guys have some sort of red flag. Either their WOPR isn’t very high, meaning they have just seen a couple of long bombs (“Prayer Yards), or they’ve never really consistently shown signs of an efficient RACR in the past, so there’s no sense trying to hold out hope this year. Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, and Justin Watson headline the more cautious part of this list.

RECEIVING ALPHA DOGS

Anything above a 0.8 WOPR is considered ‘ELITE

With more than 25% of the season under our belt, we can really start to make some headway in this category. For Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR), we want to compare this to Receiving Air Conversion Rate (RACR) to parse how well players perform from an efficiency standpoint.

One-Week Wonders: These players posted an above-normal WOPR this week and have some underlying stats that could give us pause when assuming they will continue with this role for the rest of the season. Darren Waller (high one-week WOPR) and DJ Moore (WOPR of 0.9 and RACR of 2.0 is tough to maintain) fit the mold in this category.

On the Rise: These players have all seen an increase in WOPR, and their RACR also tracked up as similar or better efficiency with the added volume. If this continues, this is the exact cohort of players we want to try and pounce on early. DeAndre Hopkins and George Pickens are worth monitoring for the next few weeks.

Elite, Elite, Elite: These players have a history of posting WOPR above 0.8, so they are no stranger to this list. Along with big opportunity weeks, these guys have underlying stats that skew very positive, so it’s an extra vote of confidence to see them appear in this category. Ja’Marr Chase (61% Receiving share w/ no Higgins), Tyreek Hill (32.1 PPR points on only 64 air yards in Week 5), and Brandon Aiyuk (WOPR went up and RACR ticked down, should regress) fit the bill from Week 5.

RUSHING WORKHORSES

Which players commanded more than 75% of their team’s rushing yards?

Stranglehold on RB Opportunities: This is seemingly a rare species in today’s NFL, a bell-cow running back. When we find one, we want to study and track it for multiple weeks. At the running back position, one of the easiest things to consistently bet on is volume, and it’s hard to deny that these guys have it. In Week 5, it’s really only Joe Mixon who has shown a consistent almost 90% rushing share all season!

Separating within the Backfield: These players have seen their rushing and snap share start to tick up. It’s not yet hitting those elite marks each week, but this week’s performance was a great step in the right direction. Dameon Pierce, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Breece Hall should keep separating. I’ve been purposefully quiet on Zack Moss this week, just because I’m not sure I trust this usage with JT back — although he did just do it with JT back.

SNEAKY PASS-CATCHERS

Non-WRs who saw a hefty receiving share this week

Low Usage, High Involvement: While the snap counts for these players aren’t at very elite levels, their consistent involvement in the rushing/passing game on the field indicates that they have a defined role in the offense. We want to focus on the receiving role since receptions are more fruitful than rushes. Kendre Miller and Samaje Perine are two names to remember if the guys in front of them go down.

Nothing New for these TEs: Since this list comprises non-receivers, there are typically a lot of tight ends. The players in this category make the list more often than not and should be counted on as those true Alpha-TEs who aren’t just TD-dependent to score fantasy points. Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Darren Waller fit the mold in Week 5.

RUNNING BACK USAGE TO LOOK OUT FOR

These RBs are all seeing decreases in their USG rating

A Thorn in Their Side: It’s hard to flat-out say that these guys are no longer RB1s due to one low usage week, but their performance is indicative that either the coaching tendencies, their backfield teammates, or both are going to be prohibitive for their fantasy domination this year. Miles Sanders, Bijan Robinson, and Derrick Henry must shake off that thorn and break free.

Losing their Grip on RB1 Status: A low snap share and a low usage rate generally combine for a pretty bad RB fantasy performance. That’s exactly what happened to these guys this week. It’s important to monitor their usage moving forward or potentially cut ties now and get them off your team. Alexander Mattison, Brian Robinson, Devin Singletary, and Dalvin Cook could all be getting outplayed in their own backfields.

ONE THING FOR EACH TEAM

A quick takeaway for 10-12 teams. Rotated in alphabetical order, each team will show up every three weeks.

HOUDameon Pierce, with an 87% rush attempt share is what we want to see more of.

IND – Zack Moss took full advantage of Jonathan Taylor being slowly worked back in (10 snaps and six rush attempts). However, it’s hard to ignore Taylor’s 70% involvement rate. We expect his snaps to keep ticking up, especially with Anthony Richardson out.

JAXChristian Kirk is quietly having a better season than Calvin Ridley in many different underlying metrics.

KC – It was good to see a 28% target share from Travis Kelce in Week 5. We want him to continue dominating even though he is battling injuries. It’s still hard to figure out which of the seven Chiefs WRs is due for a big week on any given Sunday.

LARCooper Kupp returned and acted like he didn’t miss a beat—wheels up for him rest-of-season.

MIA – Why can’t we have nice things? It looks like De’Von Achane is out for the next 3-4 weeks, so we can fully expect Raheem Mostert to be a dominant force in their backfield. TBD on Jeff Wilson Jr.’s status.

MIN – 51% snap share for Alexander Mattison and 29% for Cam Akers. I would expect that number to keep getting closer, although the Justin Jefferson injury could provide pathways for both of these guys to be fantasy-relevant. The Vikings are a bit of a mess right now.

NE – Let’s make it easy. Just don’t start anybody from this team in fantasy football each week.

NO – Alvin Kamara‘s target share came crashing back down to earth in Week 5, after a crazy 14 targets in Week 4. Still, he looks like the guy you want in this backfield until further notice.

DOWNLOAD: THE WORKLOAD REPORT – WEEK 5

Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn

Related Posts