Justin Fields was the talk of the fantasy world less than a year ago–part of the new crew of running quarterbacks. And if we’re being honest, he was probably the best runner out there. So his stock was high entering this season, going as a top-five quarterback in the consensus rankings.
Fields, however, struggled mightily through the first three games of the 2023 season. He looked like one of the biggest fantasy busts of the year. Then, in Week 4, Fields exploded for career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns (that’s right–passing). He scored over 35 fantasy points. So, now that Fields is finally coming off a good game, everyone’s asking the same question: should we buy or sell Justin Fields?
JUSTIN FIELDS WAS A COLLEGIATE DUAL-THREAT LEGEND
I’m going to admit something right off the bat, here. When Justin Fields left Ohio State to go to the NFL, I was not a believer.
Looking back on it, my position seems a little hard to justify. Fields went 20-2 over two years as a starter at a big-time program. He completed close to 70% of his passes, he threw 67 touchdowns against only nine interceptions, including a 41 TD to 3 INT season in 2019, which also included ten rushing touchdowns and a trip to the College Football Playoff. He actually took Ohio State all the way to the championship game in 2020, so the guy put up huge numbers and proved himself to be a bonafide winner at a very high level.
I guess my lack of belief in him–and it’s actually mentioned in scouting reports for him leading into the 2021 draft–stemmed from never really seeing him have to make true progressions after dropping back. At a lot of these high-level college programs, it seems like the ball comes out immediately, or a guy, or even multiple guys, are just wide open. That is often not the case in the NFL; your main guy is double-teamed, and all of a sudden you’re having to scan the field looking for other options as the pocket collapses around you. Playing quarterback in the NFL is the hardest position in any sport, and not everyone (even elite college guys) is cut out for it.
FIELDS TOOK OVER IN CHICAGO QUICKLY
When the Chicago Bears picked Fields with the 11th pick of the 2021 draft, I kind of rolled my eyes. I didn’t believe in Fields, and I considered the Bears a walking joke, so it seemed like a great fit for everyone to fail. Journeyman Andy Dalton was at the helm for the Bears at the start of the 2021 season, so I didn’t expect to see Fields any time soon–if ever.
Dalton got injured, however, and Fields was suddenly a starter in the NFL. And he was exactly who I thought he would be. Fields ended the season with seven touchdowns against ten interceptions, his completion percentage fell a full ten points–finishing under 60%–and his rushing was forgettable save one outlier game that saw him rush for a Lamar Jackson-esque 103 yards and a score against the 49ers. Oh, and he finished with a win/loss record of 2-8–including losing his last 7.
Obviously, my expectations could not have been lower heading into 2022. And it was more of the same for about the first five games of the season. Although the Bears somehow had a record of 2-3 (I would’ve guessed 0-5), Fields failed to crack 200 yards passing in a game in all but one contest, and his rushing was fairly pedestrian. He seemed like he just wasn’t cut out for this gig.
FIELDS TURNED INTO A KONAMI CHEAT CODE
But then a VERY significant thing happened. Justin Fields started to run. As anyone who has spent this long reading an article about fantasy football knows, rushing yards for a quarterback are worth 2.5 times as much as passing yards, and rushing TDs get you the full six, whereas many leagues only credit four points per passing TD. And man, did the fantasy points start piling up for Fields.
In the final ten games of the season, Fields only rushed for under 60 yards once. He had games in which he rushed for 132 yards, 145 yards, and 178 YARDS–an NFL record. This is a quarterback we’re talking about, here. In the game Fields rushed for 178, he threw three touchdowns too, albeit in an unimpressive 123 passing yards. That’s, at minimum, a 40-point fantasy game, no matter your scoring settings.
Fields finished the season with well over 1,000 yards rushing, notching the second-highest season total for a quarterback in NFL history. So, even though the Bears lost their final eight games and 11 of their last 12, suddenly Justin Fields was fantasy-relevant.
This is why, heading into the 2023 season, Fields was considered a prize. I think (and don’t quote me on this) that the Wolf had Fields as his fourth quarterback on his Big Board. He had an unprecedented Konami upside. Running at the clip he was running at in 2022 could easily balance out his passing numbers that were “meh” at best. People seemed all too willing to forget the fact that he was 5-20 as a starter in the NFL.
THE BEARS AND FIELDS ARE A MESS IN 2023
As 2023 got underway, it was the same old story for Fields and the Bears’ offense. His completion percentage was low, he failed to make routine throws, he seemed unable to progress through his options, his surrounding talent and coaching staff did not help, and–the cardinal sin for his fantasy owners who were willing to overlook all the other stuff–he wasn’t doing anything on the ground.
Fields averaged less than 15 fantasy points a game through three games–an unmitigated disaster for anyone rolling him out to play. And of course, the Bears were 0-3. Cue the Denver Broncos.
COULD WEEK 4 CHANGE EVERYTHING?
The Broncos were ready to come into town and battle the Bears. The title for the Worst Team in the NFL was on the line in Week 4. And no doubt, inspired by the terrible Denver defense, Fields suddenly (for the first time in his career, in my opinion) looked like an all-around good NFL quarterback.
His fantasy points went through the roof… and did it by PASSING the ball. He completed 28 of 35 passes (80%) and threw for a career-high (by far) 335 yards and four touchdowns. He did, however, lose a fumble and get picked off late in the game. The Bears blew a 28-7 lead and lost. Again.
But Fields looked really good for most of the game. He scored over 35 fantasy points, and for the first time, he looked like he could do the things he’s always been criticized for being unable to do.
If you are a Justin Fields owner, first of all, you have my condolences. Second of all, you need to strike while the iron is hot–like, yesterday. If someone saw that performance from Fields and wants to play ball (maybe they are sitting on Joe Burrow or someone else who’s been disappointing), you should absolutely play with them.
NOT SO FAST…
Field’s performance elevated him to the QB12–which, on the surface, makes him look like a fantasy starter. He’s not. If you started Fields all four games this year, you were really pleased once and really angry three times. That’s not a winning strategy for fantasy or your mental health.
Fields has rushed for 134 yards so far this season. That’s around 33 yards a game. It puts him fifth in the league for rushing yards as a quarterback. That sounds impressive until you realize the 19th-best rushing quarterback is Justin Herbert, who barely runs at all. Over the course of the entire year, Fields has given you less than eight more fantasy points due to rushing yards. That’s less than two points a game. And get this: Herbert has scored three rushing TDs this year to Fields’s one. That’s right, Herbert has outscored Justin Fields by four points this year on the ground.
VERDICT: SELL-HIGH ON JUSTIN FIELDS
Running is Fields’s secret sauce. Without it, he’s useless as a quarterback in fantasy and as a quarterback in the NFL. He doesn’t get to play Denver every week — If Miami played Denver every week, De’Von Achane would rush for 3,000 yards. Fields will not replicate these passing numbers any time soon, in my opinion. He is 5-24 in his career as a starter. At some point, you’d have to think he’ll actually lose his job outright; I’d argue he already should.
But this last game, an anomaly, has given some people hope. Don’t buy into it. No metric supports this being the guy who Fields is. If you see someone looking to unload him on you, walk on the other side of the street. If you own him and someone expresses interest in acquiring him, trade him and don’t look back.
I know this is harsh criticism of Fields, but I’m dealing with facts and results. If I’m wrong (and have been before) I’ll apologize and admit I made a mistake. But I’m pretty sure that won’t be an apology I will have to make.
