Welcome to Week 3, as the 1-1 New York Giants make the trip out west to face the 2-0 San Francisco 49ers. These teams have had virtually opposite starts to the season — the Niners are 2-0, winning their first two games by a combined 30 points, while the Giants got their doors blown off in Week 1 and then needed to come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to squeak by the lowly Cardinals. New York also lost star Saquon Barkley to an ankle injury, which should keep him out at least until Week 5 or 6.
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GAME LINE: UNDER 44.5
If you’ve been riding our picks so far this year, first off, thank you and you’re welcome. Also, you’ll know that this is three straight Thursday night “under” picks for us to start the year. The under hit on primetime games at over a 60% clip in 2022, and unders are 4-2 so far this year in primetime and 1-1 on TNF. And unsurprisingly, this game has “low-scoring” written all over it.
San Francisco has been a force to be reckoned with through two weeks. They and the Cowboys are the only teams in the top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense, and the 49ers are the odds-on favorite as of today to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. Christian McCaffrey leads the league in rushing and Brandon Aiyuk has come on strong to compliment Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in the passing game, but their real strength is on defense. They’ve yielded the second-fewest rushing yards to RBs through two weeks and the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends, so Saquon’s absence will be heavily felt, and Darren Waller may have a tough time getting on the same page with his QB.
I’m expecting a blowout here, which typically trends to the under, and I think there’s a good chance we spend most of the second half watching San Francisco milk the clock. I’d play this down to 44.
PICK ‘EM: DANIEL JONES MORE THAN 32.5 PASS ATTEMPTS
Last week, Daniel Jones and the G Men overcame a 20 point deficit in the second half to eek out a 31-28 victory in Arizona. Jones threw 37 passes in the win, up nine from his 28 attempts in Week 1 — but that game was an absolute blowout, and Jones was benched before it even ended to avoid taking more than the seven sacks he’d already taken.
The 49ers are worlds ahead of the Cardinals talent-wise, so I think we could be set up for a similar game here for New York — aside from the second half comeback. Combine this likely deficit with Barkley’s absence and I think Danny Dimes ends this one with at least 33 attempts.
PICK ‘EM: BROCK PURDY LESS THAN 230.5 PASS YARDS
Sticking with the blowout theme here, with the Niners likely nursing a lead for most of the second half, I don’t think it’s likely that young Brock Purdy is out there slinging it 40-50 times. He’ll rack up some yards in the first half that could make us sweat a little, but San Francisco runs the ball so effectively that they could build a three touchdown lead without throwing a pass.
I think it’s a no-brainer to fade Purdy here — not due to lack of talent, but lack of need/opportunity for an aerial attack on Thursday.
LONG SHOT: MATT BREIDA ANYTIME TD +230
The oddsmakers clearly don’t have a ton of faith in any Giants players to reach the end zone this week, as Daniel Jones has the best odds at +225. Matt Breida is right behind him at +230, and even given the matchup, I’m not sure why he’s so low. It’s not that Vegas doesn’t think he’s going to be the lead guy, because his backfield counterpart Eric Gray is all the way down at +800. Maybe they think Jones will run it in himself if they get close like he did seven times last season? But with Jones already having taken 10 sacks through two weeks, does Brian Daboll want to risk banging him around even more?
Regardless, Breida is going to get a large chunk of the rushing work on Thursday, and it would be irresponsible not to take this bet at the current odds.
