Here at the Roto Street Journal, we don’t just play fantasy football — we live it. From early summer to late winter, our free time is primarily taken up by scouring injury reports and matchup breakdowns. Longtime friends turn to mortal enemies for a week at a time. Sunday mornings are anything but relaxing, consisting of sit/start dilemmas, last-second injury updates, and stressing over setting the perfect lineup. Maybe this describes you, too — or maybe, you’re one of the select few that’s avoided fantasy football up until now but has finally gotten the itch (or been guilted into joining a league).
Either way, welcome.
Whether you’re a newbie or a seasoned veteran, there are a handful of mistakes that millions of fantasy managers make every year that take them from playoff contention to trying like hell to avoid a last-place punishment. Knowing what these mistakes are is the first step to avoiding them on your way to fantasy glory.
1. TREATING PLAYER RANKINGS AND POINT PROJECTIONS AS GOSPEL TRUTH
Whether in your draft prep or during the draft itself, it’s definitely useful to look at a few different sources for player rankings to see who the experts are high on. We’ve all been in drafts when you can tell right away that one guy is just taking whoever’s ranked highest of the remaining players. Or, he’s inexplicably starting one guy over another, until you see that guy’s projected for 0.4 more points than the other.
I personally recommend our regularly updated 2023 Fantasy Big Board and Rankings for all of your research needs, but everywhere from ESPN and Yahoo to CBS Sports and NFL.com has its own iteration of these player rankings and projections. But no matter which site you use, there’s one constant in fantasy football — the experts make mistakes. If you need an example, look no further than 2021, when Cooper Kupp was ESPN’s WR18 and was drafted as late as the fifth or sixth round, months before he blew up to lead all players in fantasy scoring.
How to avoid it: Take in all of the outside information you can, but do your own research and trust your gut when it matters most. After all, if you end up being wrong, it’s much better to be able to point to your own over-or-under-estimations of a guy than say “It’s Matthew Berry’s fault,” or “Yahoo! only projected him for 3.8 points!” Fantasy experts are there to guide you to what they believe could be the best outcome, but it’s always important to trust your gut.
2. TINKERING POST-DRAFT FOR NO REASON
It’s a tale as old as time. You host your draft in mid-August, and instantly your brain is in fantasy mode. The only problem is, you won’t actually feel the rush of a packed NFL Sunday afternoon for almost a month. So, what do we do? We get bored and antsy and we tinker. Throwing out random trade offers and making god-awful waiver moves just to feel something. I’ve been a victim of it myself, and 99 times out of 100, I look back on my preseason impulse moves and regret every single one of them.
How to avoid it: Be. Patient. The season is coming, and once it starts it’ll be over before you know it. Get to know your roster and take a look at some early-season matchups to get an idea of how you feel about your draft, but don’t make moves just for the sake of making moves.
3. FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON PAST PERFORMANCE INSTEAD OF FUTURE POTENTIAL
This is a trap that’s all too easy to fall into. “This guy’s rushed for 1,000 yards the past four seasons, how is he being drafted in the sixth round?!” Meanwhile, you’re ignoring that he’s now 31 years old, had off-season ankle surgery, and his team just drafted his long-term replacement in April. It goes the other way too — you may be confused as to why a second-year receiver who struggled in his rookie campaign is getting so much love until you see how his coaching staff is talking about his progression and realize he got bumped up his team’s target totem pole over the off-season. Past performance can be one of many indicators of how a guy will perform in the upcoming season, but it’s crucial to look at the big picture.
How to avoid this: Look at all players through a skeptical lens. Factor in past performance, but make sure you’re aware of their current situation. If their ADP for this year doesn’t line up with their performance in years past, there’s probably a good reason.
4. IGNORING THE WAIVER WIRE
So you’re in a 12-team league with 15 roster spots per team. That’s 180 guys. Safe to assume there’s nobody better leftover right? WRONG. Even if a guy isn’t set up to contribute in a major way in Week 1, things change. Starters get hurt or fall out of favor with their offensive coordinator. Every year, there are guys who we virtually ignore in drafts that end up leading teams to championships down the road. Keeping Mistake No. 2 in mind, don’t go grab a bunch of end-of-the-bench guys just for the hell of it, but don’t ignore them completely and think your Week 1 roster is automatically good enough to win it all.
How to avoid this: Consistently check on the available players in your league and be aggressive about scooping one up if it’s the right fit. Did you draft a top-five RB? Stash his backup in case he gets hurt. You’ve got a high-risk, high-reward receiver group? Pick up a reliable option that you can sub in if needed. And if your league’s waiver wire uses FAAB, don’t be scared to use it — it won’t do you any good having a full balance while you’re stuck doing your league’s last-place punishment.
5. IGNORING MATCHUPS AND SCHEDULES
Picture this: it’s Week 7. You’ve had a solid start to the year but now you face the No. 1 team in the league, and you’re desperate to make a statement. Your RB2 has been going off the past few weeks, while you have a guy on the bench that’s struggled thus far. Seems like an easy decision, but too many times new players will forget to factor in the matchup. Then, when your RB2 goes for 4.6 points against a stifling run D while your bench back explodes for 100 yards and 2 TDs, you think, “How could I have known?” Don’t be that guy.
How to avoid this: Don’t get lazy. If a guy has been dominating but his projection for the week is lower than anticipated, figure out why. Take your own considerations into account and don’t be a slave to the projections, but make sure to take in all of the necessary information you can before finalizing your lineup at 1PM on Sunday.
