After a disappointing 2022, will Michael Carter’s struggles open up opportunities for other running backs on the roster, such as Israel Abanikanda?
As a rookie in 2021, Michael Carter was impressive. While he was never meant to handle a complete workload, his play had the football community excited about the possibility of a lethal two-headed monster alongside Breece Hall.
However, not only did Hall suffer a horrific knee injury, but Carter’s 2022 campaign was two, maybe three steps back from his rookie season.
Jets X-Factor’s Michael Nania said Carter was “last out of 42 qualified running backs with -0.5 RYOE [Rushing Yards Over Expected] per carry.”
“His overall YPC dropped by 0.8 (from 4.3 to 3.5), and of that, 0.7 of it comes from his decline in yards after contact per carry (from 3.4 to 2.7),” Nania continued. “Carter’s receptions led to significantly worse results on a per-play basis. In 2021, he averaged 9.0 yards per reception while recording a first down on 44.4% of his receptions. In 2022, he averaged 7.0 yards per reception and moved the chains on just 29.3% of his receptions.”
Carter’s struggles opened the door for Zonovan Knight to come in and make a more significant impact, until faltering at the end of the season with a pathetic 1.79 yards per carry over his last four games.
THE NEW FACE IN THE RUNNING BACK ROOM
A fifth-round pick out of Pitt, Isreal Abanikanda, brings a history of being a track sprinter, adding breakaway speed and deadly burst attributes that Carter doesn’t bring to the table.
With questions about how much work Hall will be able to handle once Week 1 hits, it’s worth trying to get a handle on how opportunities could be split until Hall is 100%.
Abanikanda brings speed, acceleration, one-cut ability, and experience running in a zone scheme, which is the way the Jets like to run the ball. These traits have led to the recent camp buzz that we want to know about:
Because of his ability to take it to the house, Israel has put his name in the pool to start if Hall is a no-go to begin the season. But, how far could he really ascend as a rookie in an ascending offense?
POTENTIAL JETS X-FACTOR: HIS QUARTERBACK’S TRUST
The importance of earning Aaron Rodgers‘ trust is well-documented, he hasn’t been shy about the subject. Because of this, we have to remember that Carter, despite his down year last season, still projects to be better in the receiving game, and the better pass protector, two question marks that Abanikanda brings with him. Missing your blocking assignment on third down is a great way to get on your quarterback’s bad side.
Not that Israel can’t become competent in those areas, but Carter was a better pass-blocking prospect out of college and has substantially more experience in a receiving role. Plus, with the Jets looking to win now with a 39-year-old soon-to-be Hall of Fame QB, results need to be immediate.
FANTASY IMPACT
With the potential that Hall is enough of an athletic freak to render the rest of the Jets backfield useless in fantasy even as soon as Week 1, it’s still worth keeping up with the handcuff situation. I believe in Israel’s potential even if Carter returns to his 2021 self.
Having Hall on my squad in the RSJ Dynasty League was a factor in trading a 2025 2nd for this year’s 3.01 and a 2024 3rd so that I could grab Abanikanda. However, using a 3rd-round rookie pick is worth the risk whether or not you’re handcuffing your dynasty teams’ backs, due to the potential utilization he could get playing one of the most injury-prone positions in the NFL.
Although Michael Carter still profiles as a better receiving back/pass-blocker, from a long-term perspective, Abanikanda has the potential to overtake the RB2 role in New York if he develops well in those areas and/or if Carter can’t rebound. This season, I expect Izzy to take the snaps Breece doesn’t get until he’s 100%, but if Carter’s struggles continue, it will leave the door open for Abanikanda to capitalize and give us a Breece/Izzy committee of sorts sooner rather than later.
In redraft, it’s not time yet to expect he’ll be taken in drafts come August. Come that time, if talk of Abanikanda potentially starting continues, be careful not to overvalue a back who could easily become irrelevant after the season’s first quarter.
The Wolf is still high on Hall, ranking him as the RB10 on his 2023 Fantasy Rankings. Meanwhile, Carter sits at RB64 (-7 vs ECR) and Abanikanda settles in at RB76 (-6) on the most updated rankings sheet.
Pardon our dust as the RSJ Dynasty Rankings transfer from the Wolf himself to Emery and yours truly, hosts of the RSJ Dynasty Dive, who you can find @RSJDynastyDive, and soon to bring you multiple dynasty perspectives as Emery and I will soon be releasing our own dynasty rankings.
