This article looks at a frequent situation that happens during rookie drafts — the majority-approved choice at the rookie 1.01 as a stud running back, and the holder of the 1.01 in the depths of a rebuild.
In ’23, Bijan Robinson has been the consensus pick at 1.01 in rookie drafts by the dynasty fantasy community, in 1QB and Superflex leagues. Regarded as a generational talent, he fits the mold for anyone sitting at 1.01 in rookie drafts and looking to take the best player available. It might sound crazy, but is there any situation where Bijan isn’t the right choice for someone’s dynasty team?
THE SCENARIO
In a dream scenario, the timing works out just right for a rebuilding dynasty team sitting at 1.01, looking at 2023 as the year they become competitive or even a bona fide contender. Bijan becomes the final piece, your team is no longer a rebuild, and you can hit the ground running.
But, what if you know that your team is rebuilding beyond 2023?
Running back, especially studs at the position, are generally known to take the least amount of time to get acclimated to the pro game and produce at a high level. We still see it take time with tight ends and quarterbacks, and used to see it more with wide receivers, but the last several years have seen highly-touted receivers break out as rookies.
In 2023, if you’re not going with Robinson at 1.01 in your Superflex league, then most certainly you’re taking one of the top three quarterbacks. In this exercise we’ll only look at the QB and RB positions, but the logic works for comparing WR and TE as well.
So the question is, how bad could you possibly hurt your rebuilding team’s 2024 draft capital by going with Bijan over a good, but developing, quarterback? In this list of rookie draft pick values from Fantasycalc.com we can get an idea of how much value you could lose in this situation:
Generally, trade calculator values reflect the same thought: as you start with the 1.01 and go down, the value gap between picks becomes smaller, so much that in this example dropping from the 1.04 to the 2.01 is exactly as much of a value drop as going from the 1.01 to the 1.04. With that much value on the line at the high end of the first round, it’s worth diving in and trying to find out if it’s worth the risk of losing 2024 draft positioning to get a top-tier running back, or if we should tell our fantasy team’s imaginary fans to “Trust The Process.”
As with most things in life, making blanket declarations can be dangerous, case-by-case studies are the play, and dynasty league strategy is no different. Fortunately at RSJ, we can pull from our RSJ Dynasty League to provide an informative case study, as we hold our 2023 rookie draft this Monday, June 12th. Our own silent assassin, CJay, enters ’23 in a multi-year rebuild, and not only that, has the roster that resembles a common look for a multi-year rebuilding squad, providing an optimal reference.
(RSJ Dynasty’s scoring format is half-PPR, 4pt passing TDs, no TEP)
Jimmy Garoppolo sits as this team’s QB2. Jimmy, a perennial low-QB2/high-QB3, is just the type of QB we could expect to find on a rebuilder. At RB2 sits Chuba Hubbard, 2023’s RB53 and a much more fitting example of the type of player we can expect to see not just on a rebuilding team, but a team who’s picking at 1.01 in rookie drafts. This kind of roster makeup is enough of a commonality that we can use it as an example of what can happen with this multi-year rebuilder, depending on their draft choice.
THE MODEL
As a generational talent with high NFL draft capital, I went back to 2015 to find players in similar hype and situation, situations where the fresh RB was basically seen as “the guy” in their respective room. Draft capital wasn’t the only factor considered, and it was tough to know exactly where to draw the line, in 2017 in particular. That year had Leonard Fournette as the guy in Jacksonville as the NFL Draft’s fourth pick, and Christian McCaffrey going to Carolina at pick eight. In his rookie year, McCaffrey shared the backfield with Jonathan Stewart and didn’t yet see the insane receiving volume he would see in year two, but still flirted with RB1 numbers and I put him on the list anyway. Dalvin Cook was a second-round pick but only played four games, so I left him off. Joe Mixon shared enough backfield work with Giovanni Bernard to leave him off the list. As a third-rounder, Alvin Kamara finished his rookie year as an RB1 in fantasy, but so much of that was due to high receiving volume, getting out-carried by Mark Ingram 230-to-120, a role I don’t really see with Bijan, so I didn’t include Kamara. And, even though Kareem Hunt was a third-rounder, the 2017 Offensive Rookie Of The Year was clearly the guy in Kansas City, so he made it on the list. I listed Josh Jacobs as “borderline” because of the considerable amount of work taken by DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Still, at 18.6 carries per game, I was comfortable putting him on this list.
Overall, I believe it’s a sufficient sample size to look at and observe the average output: 16.06 half-PPR points per game, which would be good enough for the RB5 last season.
Seeing as how someone takes their pick of any rookie QB if that’s the position they roll with at 1.01, I took a similar approach to quarterbacks. Note how much of an outlier Justin Herbert was at 22.9 ppg. The Urban Meyer fiasco in Jacksonville nearly put Trevor Lawrence off this list for me, but since he was touted as such a high prospect, I opted to leave him here.
Note the average: 16.61 ppg, higher than what we have at running back. For rebuilding teams who already have two solid RBs but say one, or even no viable QBs rostered, this article isn’t directly speaking to them.
THE IMPLEMENTATION
So now that we have an idea of stud QB and RB production during their rookie seasons, let’s compare the difference in that production to what already existed on today’s test subject’s roster.
Last year, Jimmy G put up 15.3 ppg. Based on our model, if CJay goes with his choice at QB at 1.01 this Monday, the 16.61 ppg he could expect would be around a 1.36-ppg improvement.
Last year, Chubba Hubbard put up a respectable 5.8 ppg. If CJay goes with Bijan at 1.01, the 16.06 ppg he could expect would be a 10.26 ppg difference.
That means that going with Bijan could equal over 8.9 ppg than picking whoever he thinks is the best QB in this class.
If we add 8.9-ppg to CJay’s 2022 team output as a reference, that would put him at 77.41, third-to-last, and he’d be sitting at 1.03 instead of 1.01 in this upcoming rookie draft, which means Bijan off the board, and maybe his choice at quarterback gone as well.
Imagine getting Kyler Murray in ’19 and still getting a shot to draft Jonathan Taylor in ’20, or Justin Fields in ’21 with a shot to get Breece Hall in ’22. Imagine Josh Allen in ’18 and then being able to hit the ground running after taking Josh Jacobs in ’19. Your first pick could be running back, but if improving your team’s ppg by 8.9 in doing so, you’re shot at a stud QB that next year just got undeniably worse.
THE DECISION: WHO’S THE PICK?
On June 6th’s episode of RSJ Dynasty Dive, Emery and I discussed this situation while doing a first-round mock of this Monday’s RSJ Dynasty League rookie draft, and after all things considered, our picks were:
In this case, 8.9-ppg wasn’t enough to sway what we would do if we were in CJay’s position. In our particular league’s context, one team (Xenos) is the clear frontrunner to get the 1.01 in 2024 no matter what CJay does. After that, Cjay has a realistic shot at ’24’s 1.02 even after obtaining Bijan’s services, though it’s much, much more of a toss-up than the 1.01.
(Emery and I discuss this subject at 29:26-48:50)
But that’s our league, a common league with clearer tiers of contenders, rebuilders, and middlers, but maybe yours is different. Maybe there’s a handful of realistic candidates to get 2024’s 1.01, or maybe your league has an uncommonly low range of team points per game, where an 8.9 ppg improvement on your team could knock you back a handful of spots in ’24. And that makes this situation worth considering.
On another hand, if you’re not the team holding the 1.01 this year, this situation is worth considering in the case that it motivates the team holding the 1.01 to consider trading the pick. The 2024 quarterback draft class is led by Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, both intriguing prospects, but neither is considered the next Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence. In that case, rolling with a QB in ’23 and racking up some future draft capital might be on their radar, rather than a generational running back talent that’s not only stuck on a struggling dynasty team, but hurting that team’s future draft capital as well.
Also, with Bijan in a tier of his own, if the 1.01-holder likes player(s) that they could trade down for while getting a Bijan-worthy haul in return, perhaps you’ve done a well enough job accruing assets on your own team to justify trading up to get him.
Got a quarterback you like in 2023? Maybe the manager at 1.01 does as well, and likes them enough let Bijan drop to 1.02. 1.02 is clearly easier to trade up for than the 1.01, and if you can’t get Bijan at 1.02, ah well, then you get the QB you want. But what if the 1.01 takes that QB? Well then…I imagine you could live with that…
CONCLUSION
When a running back gets discussed as an upcoming rookie draft’s 1.01, this subject is always worth considering. If your rookie draft is over already and you’re wondering how much you may have hurt your rebuilding team’s draft capital in ’24 by taking Bijan with the first pick, remember:
Just as the NFL is a game of inches, won in the trenches, it’s the nuance, the little things in dynasty that can add up and gain you an edge. Small moves, Ellie, small moves (yes, a “Contact” reference).
If this article helped keep your mind churning and your values fresh, feel free to check out myself and RSJ’s Emery Dinsmore as we continue getting our weekly RSJ Dynasty Dive segment off the ground, which for now, you can watch live on YouTube or Facebook on Tuesdays at 6pm EST, or catch the recordings later on the same respective outlets. Follow us @RSJDynastyDive to vote on segment-linked polls, or just talk some dynasty at us.
