We haven’t even closed the book on the 2022 NFL season yet, but our friends over at PrizePicks released their early 2023 NFL season-long player props and futures for degenerates like us.
Prior to last season, I handed out free money with my 2022 NFL season-long player props, and I’m back to do the same this year. But, with an entire offseason to play out, highlighted by free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft, PrizePicks is only offering a select number of passing yards, rushing yards, and receiving yards lines at the time of publication — which makes sense. So, check back before and after the NFL Draft for more of my favorite season-long picks.
If you’ve never played PrizePicks, the platform allows users to pick and combine two to six player props to win up to 25X on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very generous lines and more favorable parlay returns.
JUSTIN HERBERT OVER 4,775.5 PASSING YARDS
I gave this same play out last year and it went under by 12 measly yards. While that was a terrible beat, I’m more optimistic this year because Herbert should get more than 10 games out of Keenan Allen and 13 games out of Mike Williams (fingers crossed for both). He will also get Rawshawn Slater back from injured reserve to keep him upright. Plus, the Chargers could also be in the market to boost its receiver corps.
But more importantly, the Bolts hired one of the league’s top young offensive minds, Kellen Moore, to call the offense. During Moore’s four seasons in Dallas, he engineered the league’s top-scoring offense once and the league’s top offense from a yardage standpoint twice. Moore will help Herbert push the ball downfield and keep drives alive to smash this over. A 5,000-yard season is not out of the question.
TREVOR LAWRENCE OVER 4,075.5 PASSING YARDS
I’m going back to the Trevor Lawrence well again in 2023 after being all over his resurgence last season. Last year, we hit the over on his passing yards, and Lawrence should go over with ease again in year two under Doug Pederson. The Jaguars return Christian Kirk and Zay Jones on the perimeter, but they also acquired Calvin Ridley from the Falcons. The last time we saw Ridley, he finished as the fantasy WR4 in 2020 when he racked up nearly 1,500 yards receiving. If the Jaguars bring back Evan Engram, this passing offense could be one of the best in the league under Lawrence and Pederson.
JOSH ALLEN OVER 4,375.5 PASSING YARDS
This number just feels low for one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Sure, he’ll lose out on some passing yards due to his rushing ability (600.5 rushing yards on PrizePicks), but Allen should have no problem hitting this over and I’d hit it before it gets bumped up. Allen exceeded this number in 2020 and 2021, and he would’ve easily hit it in 2022 (needed 92 yards) if the team’s game against the Bengals was not canceled.
After the Gabe Davis WR2 gamble did not work out as planned, I’d expect the Bills to add a legitimate second receiver via trade, free agency, or the draft to play alongside Stefon Diggs. Lock this play in before the line gets moved.
NICK CHUBB OVER 1,250.5 RUSHING YARDS
This one just feels like stealing. Nick Chubb is coming off a 1,525-yard season and he could see another 300-plus carries next year with Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson likely walking in free agency. Chubb has cashed this total in three of the last four years and he should see lighter boxes with a full season of Deshaun Watson under center. I feel very good about this one.
KENNETH WALKER III OVER 1,100.5 RUSHING YARDS
Kenneth Walker didn’t have double-digit carries until Week 6, he only had 11 games of double-digit carries, and he still finished with 1,050 rushing yards as a rookie. Yes, Pete Carroll will likely add another legitimate back to the backfield, but with Rashaad Penny’s contract up and Walker’s high draft capital, he should be an every-down workhorse with 15 to 25 carries per game next season. Assuming Walker stays healthy, he’ll smash this total.
NAJEE HARRIS OVER 1,050.5 RUSHING YARDS
Najee Harris looked like dust throughout the 2022 season, yet he finished very strong once it appeared his foot injury healed up. With the offense ascending under Kenny Pickett, Harris had 20-plus carries five times during the second half of the season and one would expect the Steelers to finally address its 16th-ranked offensive line over the offseason. The team will likely try to keep Harris fresh by giving Jaylen Warren more carries next year, but Mike Tomlin is a bell-cow breeder who will always lean on his RB1.
JA’MARR CHASE OVER 1,250.5 RECEIVING YARDS
To be honest, I loved so many of the receiver props, but I wanted to keep this list to my three favorites (check below for a list of my other top plays).
This is stealing. In only 12 games last year, Ja’Marr Chase went over 1,000 yards. Joe Burrow and Chase’s chemistry sits atop of the league and it was proven yet again with Chase receiving double-digit targets in nine of 12 games last season. There are some games where Chase somewhat disappears, but he’ll make up for it with a 150 or 200-yard performance. If the Bengals use their first-rounder on a top offensive line prospect or add a stud in free agency to protect their franchise quarterback, it will only give Burrow more time to dissect defenses.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 1,100.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Sun God proved he’s a legitimate alpha WR1 when he broke out for over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards in only 15 full games. DJ Chark is likely to leave in free agency and Amon-Ra has developed quite the chemistry with Jared Goff, meaning the receiver will likely see over 150 targets in 2023. Not to mention, the insertion of a healthy Jameson Williams will only loosen up the safeties over the top to let St. Brown cook. ARSB will once again be the engine of this team’s ascending offense.
GARRETT WILSON OVER 1,075.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Are there a few other receivers who could be considered “locks” on the board over Garrett Wilson? Yes. However, the rookie cracked the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie with the likes of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White tossing him the rock. The Jets’ QB situation is still a major question mark, but I think they will upgrade that position via trade or free agency since the rest of the roster is ready to win now. Grab this line before the Jets add a serviceable quarterback because it’ll only increase.
Others I like: Dak Prescott under 4,425.5 passing yards; Kirk Cousins over 4,250.5 passing yards; Derrick Henry under 1,300.5 rushing yards; AJ Brown over 1,150.5 receiving yards; Justin Jefferson over 1,450.5 receiving yards; DK Metcalf over 999.5 receiving yards; Travis Kelce over 1,125.5 receiving yards