One of the best weekends of the year — the NFL Divisional Playoffs — is upon us. We’re down to eight teams remaining in the NFL postseason, and they make up four potentially historic matchups this weekend. And to make a great thing even better, we’re going to make some cold hard cash with our friends at PrizePicks.
We’ve compiled our favorite player prop pick from each of the four NFL Divisional Round games this weekend. Plus, place your entry by 7:40 PM Eastern on Friday to include a free square, courtesy of Luka Doncic over 0.5 points, for a 5-play entry to 10X your money. If you’re feeling really lucky, add a sixth and give yourself a chance to make 25X your entry amount.
Lines/odds via PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to six player props to win up to 25X on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very generous lines.
TRAVIS KELCE OVER 0.5 RECEIVING TD
This one seems like a no-brainer because it is. Andy Reid has a 27-4 lifetime record coming off a bye week, and Patrick Mahomes is 3-0 in the Divisional round coming off a bye. KC will be ready to go, and Travis Kelce will undoubtedly be a massive factor in their offensive game plan. The eight-time Pro Bowler set career highs in targets, receptions, and touchdowns this year in Mahomes’ first season without Tyreek Hill. This matchup also favors Kelce, as Jacksonville allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to TEs this year, along with seven touchdowns. Kelce has the most favorable odds as an anytime TD scorer at -155, and for a good reason. I also like his over 77.5 receiving yards prop, which is a number that he’s exceeded in nine games this season.
JALEN HURTS UNDER 50.5 RUSHING YARDS
Jalen Hurts missed two starts late in the season with a shoulder injury, returning in Week 18 to beat the Giants to earn the Eagles a crucial first-round bye as they tried to get healthy. In that Week 18 game, Hurts ran nine times for only 13 yards, adding 229 yards through the air as well. Hurts’ rushing ability opens up a lot for Philadelphia’s offense, but he may still be hesitant to run and potentially take a hit that would end his season prematurely. The Giants also allowed under 21 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks in the regular season and I think they’ll keep him in check in this one.
JOE BURROW OVER 11.5 RUSHING YARDS
From a run-first quarterback’s rushing under to a pocket passer quarterback’s rushing over. We’re all over the place here.
Joe Burrow rushed for 12 or more yards only six times this season and hasn’t done it since Week 14 against the Chiefs, but I like this over a lot for him. The Bills were 14th in the league with 40 sacks, and get solid pressure even with Von Miller out of the lineup. The Bengals, meanwhile, have suffered similar offensive line issues as the ones that plagued them in last season’s Super Bowl run, mainly due to injuries to Alex Cappa, La’el Collins, Jonah Williams, and others. Buffalo will definitely put pressure on Burrow, and I think he’ll take at least a few opportunities to scramble and pick up some positive yards to salvage those plays. With his number set this low, I feel good about the over.
DAK PRESCOTT OVER 1.5 PASSING TOUCHDOWNS
Dak Prescott did a lot to shut up the haters last week against Tampa Bay, throwing for 305 yards and four TDs in the 31-14 win. Now he’ll face a much tougher test in San Francisco, the league’s top-scoring defense and second-best run defense. The 49ers allowed the fifth-fewest red zone rushing yards this year, so the Cowboys’ game plan may revolve heavily around the passing game when they get close to the goal line. Add in Brett Maher‘s abysmal performance in the Wild Card round, going for it on fourth down may be a big part of their strategy as well, especially if the game is as close as the four-point spread indicates. I like Dak to throw for at least two TDs in this matchup. Another intriguing pivot is the over 3.5 TD pass combo of Dak and Brock Purdy.