We’ve officially reached one of the most bittersweet times of the year — the NFL postseason. As great as it is to know we’re in for a few weeks of high-stakes matchups between the best teams the NFL has to offer (and the Dolphins), we know each week inches us closer and closer toward a football-starved spring and summer. So, enjoy it while it lasts and make some money while you’re at it.
We’ve sifted through the data and come up with a fantasy player prop selection for each game. Pick your favorites and enter them in your PrizePicks lineup for a chance to 25X your money and make Wild Card Weekend even sweeter.
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GENO SMITH OVER 15.5 RUSHING YARDS
Most are in agreement that Seattle has very little hope against the juggernaut 49ers, but that won’t stop Geno Smith from doing all he can to give them a chance. That’s where this prop comes in. San Francisco finished 11th in sacks this year and employs the league’s leading sack-getter in Nick Bosa, who had 18.5 sacks himself. Facing a Seattle team that gave up the 10th-most sacks this season, they’ll have no trouble getting pressure on Geno and forcing him to exit the pocket and make plays with his legs.
Smith has topped this rushing total in five straight games and 11 of 17 overall this year, and the game flow should have him well over this number on Saturday afternoon as well.
AUSTIN EKELER OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Austin Ekeler was fantasy’s RB1 in PPR scoring this year but falls to RB4 in non-PPR — which shows how much of an impact he has in the Chargers’ passing attack. Ekeler finished fifth in the league in receptions among all NFL players and second among running backs in receiving yards with 722, trailing only Christian McCaffrey.
With Mike Williams suffering a back injury in the Chargers’ meaningless Week 18 game and looking increasingly questionable to play this weekend, Ekeler’s role in the passing game becomes even more paramount to LA’s ability to maintain competitiveness against Jacksonville. Ekeler’s receptions number is set at 5, which I don’t hate the over for either, but I feel more confident that he’s able to break a handful of catches and top his yardage number.
ISAIAH MCKENZIE OVER 23.5 RECEIVING YARDS
There’s no doubt that once the playoffs start, role players become much more important, especially on offense. And with Miami’s defense having to worry about Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and others in Buffalo’s second-ranked scoring offense, I think the opportunity is there for Isaiah McKenzie to make a huge impact.
McKenzie had a solid season overall, catching 42 passes for 423 yards and four touchdowns for Buffalo. One of his best performances of the season came in the Bills’ first matchup with Miami, when he caught seven passes for 76 yards and a TD in a closely-contested contest. McKenzie was held in check in their second matchup, catching just two passes for 24 yards, but he was targeted five times.
With Miami knowing they have to stop Buffalo from scoring to keep this game close and knowing the main weapons they have to worry about, I think McKenzie could be in for a big day and I love his over at this number. Plus, with McKenzie’s speed and big play ability, one catch could be all we need for 24 yards.
GRAHAM GANO OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS MADE
The Vikings and Giants game currently has Vegas’ highest total of the weekend at 48. Despite this, I think points may be hard to come by in this one with a run-heavy Giants offense going up against Kirk Cousins in a non-1PM EST game, where his struggles are well-documented. In particular, the Giants will take points however they can get them, and I think that strategy bodes well for their kicker.
Graham Gano was one of the more consistent kickers in the NFL this year, hitting over 90% of his kicks, which put him tied for fifth among kickers with over 30 attempts. He also had very little drop-off on long-distance kicks, hitting 18 of 20 from 40-plus and eight of nine attempts from over 50 yards. In what should be a closely-contested game being played in a dome, Gano should get ample chances, and I have faith in him cashing in as long as those chances arise.
SAMAJE PERINE OVER 17.5 RUSHING YARDS
Samaje Perine rushed for 394 yards this season, his highest total since his rookie season in 2017. This was due in large part to three starts while Joe Mixon was sidelined with injury, in which Perine averaged 16 carries and about 65 yards per game. Mixon predictably took back over the lead role once he returned, but Perine still had four or more carries in all of those games and rushed for 18 or more yards in three out of four. In two matchups against Baltimore this year — both in the backup role — Perine averaged 17.5 yards on 4.5 carries per game.
This pick is partially due to game flow, as I expect Cincinnati to demolish the Ravens without Lamar Jackson and likely spend most of the fourth quarter running the clock out. They’ll likely want to keep Mixon as fresh as possible heading into a likely divisional-round matchup with Buffalo, so Perine could get a slew of late carries that allows him to hit this number easily. Even if this isn’t how the game ultimately plays out, Perine has carved out enough of a role in Cincinnati’s offense that I feel confident in his over here.
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT OVER 0.5 TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS
Finally, we reach the highly-anticipated Monday night matchup between the Cowboys and Bucs in Tampa. With inconsistent quarterback play, Dallas has stayed competitive this year thanks in large part to their top-10 rushing offense behind arguably the best RB duo in football in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
Pollard outrushed Elliott by 131 yards this year despite logging 38 fewer carries and scoring nine touchdowns compared to 12 for Zeke. A large part of this touchdown difference comes down to red zone usage; Elliott was tied for 15th in red zone carries with 35, while Pollard had just 23. Zeke has about 20 pounds on Pollard and tends to have more success between the tackles, which leads to a higher usage rate when they get close to the goal line and the defense stacks the box.
As a frequent bettor of a Tony Pollard anytime TD, I’ve felt the frustration firsthand when Pollard does virtually all of the work to get Dallas in scoring position and Zeke finishes the job with a 1-yard plunge into the end zone. I see a similar scenario playing out in this game with points potentially at a premium, and think Zeke is a safe bet to find the end zone on Monday night.
