A tradition unlike any other.
The tug of war between tape and analytics continues, with each side claiming victory when a champion of the tape hits in the NFL that didn’t necessarily test out well, and obviously vice-versa.
Christian Watson was one of the most polarizing, hotly debated rookies in the 2022 draft class for this very reason. Watson is a size, speed freak of nature but had disappointing college production and questionable hands.
His 2022 fantasy impact was hotly contested due to his deficiencies and Aaron Rodgers’ history of limited rookie usage.
Across Watson’s first six games, he saw a total of 14 targets, and he caught 10 for 88 yards and zero touchdowns.
Fellow rookie Romeo Doubs looked to clearly be ahead of him on the depth chart and had more trust built up with Rodgers than Watson.
Enter week 10 against Dallas.
Watson blew up and took three of his four receptions to paydirt, with 107 yards as the icing on the cake. He followed up that game with another two touchdowns on four receptions against the Titans.
Is this sustainable? Can Watson really be trusted or is this just a hot streak?
BY THE NUMBERS
Watson has caught five touchdowns on eight receptions over the last two weeks. He’s seen 14 targets.
That’s a touchdown on 62.5% of his receptions or 35.7% of his targets.
Obviously, those numbers are not sustainable. So, let’s dive a little deeper and look into some more opportunity-based, predictive numbers for further clarity.
In weeks 10 and 11, Watson saw 264 air yards (45.4% of the team’s air yards) and has seen 25% of the team’s targets, trailing only Allen Lazard at a 26.79% target share. Watson’s average depth of target is 18.86 over the last two weeks.
Comparing that to the other six games Watson has played where he saw:
- 253 air yards and an aDot of 11.5
- A 6.7% target share and a 9.86% market share of the team air yards
Currently, Watson ranks first in fantasy points per route run (0.76) and third in fantasy points per target (2.7). He’s also averaging 2.5 yards per route run and 28.2% targets per route run.
So, let’s do a little thought experiment here.
Leave the receptions on Watson’s stat line but take away the touchdowns and let’s look at his PPR production to determine how viable his fantasy outlook is.
Week 10 adjusted fantasy points – 14.7 fantasy points and eight targets
Week 11 adjusted fantasy points – 8.8 fantasy points on six targets
CONCLUSION
Without the touchdowns, Watson is averaging seven targets, four receptions, and 77.5 yards. This equals 11.8 adjusted fantasy points for a sustainable flex value with obvious touchdown upside.
Aside from the ridiculous touchdown rate, there’s nothing to suggest Watson shouldn’t continue to sustain his value even if he doesn’t find his way in the end zone.
Check out The Wolf’s Rest of Season Rankings to see where Watson lands.
