The Betting Den: NFL Week 9 Best Bets & Player Props to Hammer

The Betting Den is back to preview their favorite NFL Week 9 best bets and player props! From player props to straight bets and parlays, the Betting Den has got you covered. Ethan provides the straight bets and parlays, while Misha makes all of the player props picks.

The Betting Den is live on the Roto Street YouTube channel every Wednesday at 5 pm EST to give an in-depth breakdown of their weekly picks.

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STRAIGHT BETS (WEEK 8: 5-2):

1. TNF: Eagles @ Texans +14.5 (19% of public)

I don’t think there is any doubt the Eagles will win this football game. I totally see this being a 21-point game and the Texans’ back door cover on a garbage time irrelevant drive. Dameon Pierce is a ferocious running back and should keep things interesting for the Texans.

2. Hammer Play: Over 48.5 Chargers @ Falcons (10% of public)

Just as we all thought at the beginning of the year, the Falcons are atop the NFC south. Justin Herbert is going against a Falcons’ defense that has allowed over 1,000 yards in the last two weeks combined.  On the other side of the ball, this is a really good matchup for an Atlanta team who really loves running the ball because the Chargers have allowed over 200 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Expect a shootout in the dome.

3. Scary Selection: Colts +5.5 @ Patriots (49% of public)

Sam Ehlinger played well last week, completing 17 of 23 passes for 201 yards, and adding 15 rushing yards on the ground. The offense couldn’t finish drives and had to settle for three field goals but I partially blame Frank Reich for that issue. Anyway, I like the Colts this week. The Patriots coming off a division win against the Jets and this seems like a let-down spot for New England.

4. Buccaneers ML vs. Rams (47% of public)

Both of these teams are really struggling. The Bucs have lost five of their last six games, while the Rams have lost three of their last four games. The Rams have glaring offensive line problems and Cooper Kupp is banged up. Neither team can run the football but the Buccs are more healthy offensively and Tom Brady should be able to pull out a win at home.

5. Titans +12.5 @ Chiefs (39% of public)

The Titans have won five in a row after losing their first two games. Since they got blown out at Buffalo, Tennesee has been rolling and the Chiefs’ front seven does not fare well against the run. It’ll be interesting to see what the Titans do to stop Patrick Mahomes & co., but I think the Titans can cover the double-digit spread.

6. Ravens -3 @ Saints (49% of public)

The Ravens had a mini-bye week, playing last Thursday and then on the following Monday. That’s 10 days off, whereas the Saints have seven days off leading into this game. I think this will be an entertaining game, but the Ravens are the better team and they just added Roquan Smith to the defense.

PARLAYS

1. Easy Money Lay: Bengals ML vs Panthers, Vikings ML @ Commanders, Chargers ML @ Falcons (+226)
2. Hungry Dogs Lay: Jets ML vs Bills, Titans ML @ Chiefs, Saints ML vs Ravens (+6420)

Same Game Parlays:

1. Dolphins +5.5 @ Bears, over 39.5 (-130)
2. Jags +11.5 vs. Raiders, over 57.5 (-175)
3. Bengals ML vs. Panthers, over 32.5 (-170)

PLAYER PROPS via PrizePicks (Week 8: 12-4, YTD: 54-54)

Passing Yards

1. Tom Brady o275.5
   • I will keep running back this bet until the Bucs win or it stops hitting
   • Averaging 283.4 ypg
   • Coming off of multiple embarrassing losses, Brady is beyond upset 
   • PFF has him projected at 312.4 yards… top QB in the NFL this week
2.  Patrick Mahomes o270.5
   • Titans’ run defense is top-five but its pass defense is bottom-five
   • Averaging 308.4 ypg
   • Coming off the bye, all the weapons are healthy and raring to go
   • PFF has him at 295.3
3. Scary Selection: Aaron Rodgers o240.5
   • Detroit has the worst passing defense in the league
   • Averaging 225 ypg
   • Coming off many tough losses, this feels like a bounce-back, get-right spot for the Packers
   • PFF has him projected at 282.5 yards
4. Geno Smith o220.5 
   • The Cardinals’ pass defense is bottom-10 in the league
   • Averaging 240.5 ypg
   • DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both a week healthier and Geno is due after three passing dud performances
   • PFF has him projected at 271 yards

Rushing Yards

1. Miles Sanders o79.5
   • Playing the Texans who get torched by every running back and lose every game 
   • Averaging 80.4 yards p/g
   • Eagles’ should pound Texans on TNF and just run the ball down their throats
   • PFF has Sanders at 75.9 yards
2. Kenneth Walker o78.5 
   • Walker racked up 97 rushing yards against this same defense in Week 6
   • Since taking over as starter halfway through Week 5, Walker is averaging over 100 yards per game
   • Walked missed his over last week and should be hungry to bounce back this week
   • PFF projects Walker at 84.1 yards

Receiving Yards

1. Tee Higgins o75.5
   • Playing the Panthers who aren’t special on defense
   • The Bengals are without Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow tried to spread the ball around last week — it did not work
   • Higgins should see 10-plus targets and I expect him to challenge for over 100 yards this week
   • PFF has him projected at 86.9 yards
2. DK Metcalf o62.5 
   • Metcalf avoided a major injury in Week 7 and had 55 yards last week despite playing only 63% of snaps
   • He’s averaging 65.9 ypg excluding Week 7
   • Metcalf will only look better as each week progresses — he saw 143 air yards last week
   • PFF projects DK at 71.5 yards
3. Hammer Play: Mike Evans o70.5
   • This makes no sense to me… Evans has eclipsed 70 yards in five of seven weeks this year and is now playing a weak Rams secondary
   • He has 96 and 123 yards in the last two games but has seen 222 and 184 air yards over the last two weeks
   • Evans and Brady have struggled to click consistently, yet he’s still putting up yardage
   • PFF has him projected at 84.4 yards
4. Kyle Pitts o40.5
   • The Chargers have a weak pass defense after being decimated by injuries, so this game has shootout potential 
   • Last week, Pitts had his highest snap share since Week 2, which hopefully means more opportunities for the tight ends 
   • PFF has him projected at 61.8 yards
5. DJ Moore o57.5
   • Cincy has a good defense but was torched by Jacoby Brisset last week… and Eli Apple isn’t a lock-down corner by any means
   • Moore has turned in two solid back-to-back performances (69 yards and 152 yards) catching from Walker, and has been getting peppered with targets (10 and 11 targets past 2 games)
   • The Panthers are playing with a lot more heart than people expected after Rhule got canned, PJ Walker has also been a massive boost for the Panthers pass catchers
   • PFF projects Pitts for 82 yards
6. Gabe Davis o50.5
   • The Jets’ defense is sneaky good, but Davis will likely avoid Sauce Gardner
   • Daddy Davis averages 69.7 ypg
   • Davis put up a dud last week but was still targeted seven times
   • PFF projects him at 68.4 yards

Anytime TD Scorers

1. Cooper Kupp 
   • The weekly bet is back 
   • If Kupp doesn’t play or is severely limited, pivot to Allen Robinson
2. Travis Etienne 
   • The Raiders’ defense can’t stop anybody and just got gashed by Alvin Kamara
   • ETN has taken over the Jags’ backfield and taken off
   • Etienne has touchdowns in back-to-back weeks after none through Week 6
3. Tyreek Hill 
   • Tyreek hasn’t scored since Week 2 and it seems like positive touchdown regression should come soon
4. Justin Jefferson
   • Similarily to Hill, Jefferson hasn’t scored since Week 1 and there’s too much volume for the drought to continue.
5. Shootout Same Game Parlay: DeAndre Hopkins and Kenneth Walker Touchdowns

To Throw an INT

1. Kenny Pickett
   • He’s a turnover machine 
   • INT in 4 out of 5 games he’s played 
   • 8 INTs in 5 weeks