We’re back again with Thursday Night picks, sponsored by PrizePicks. We continued our streak of positive weeks with a 3-1 showing in Week 7. The Cardinals came through with back-to-back pick sixes to end the first half and never looked back, covering their line of -2 easily. Chris Olave had a few catches early and nailed his over in the fourth, and Alvin Kamara gave us a scare in the first half but didn’t have a single rushing yard in the fourth as the Saints were trailing big. Zach Ertz had a few catches, including one near the goal line, but couldn’t get us a TD for the perfect week.
If you’re new here, each week for the Thursday game I’ll be giving out four picks:
- One game line pick (Spread or Over/Under)
- One player prop OVER via PrizePicks
- One player prop UNDER via PrizePicks
- One TD scorer
Lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PrizePicks. If you’ve never played PrizePicks, it allows users to pick and combine two to five player props to win up to 10x on an entry. If you’re a player prop bettor who typically uses a sportsbook, sign up for PrizePicks using our link below to view and take advantage of their very, very generous lines.
Thursday Night Football looks to provide us with an unprecedented second straight week of decent football in Week 8, as the 4-3 Ravens travel to Tampa Bay to face the 3-4 Buccaneers. Baltimore’s coming off a close win over Cleveland in Week 7, while Tampa got blown out by the lowly Panthers and desperately needs to turn things around as we approach the midway point of the season. Baltimore’s currently a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 45.5.
Season Record: 14-14, +0.7 units
Let’s go!
GAME TOTAL: OVER 45.5 POINTS
Primetime overs have not been a lucrative endeavor in 2022, but went 2-1 last week and have started to even out after a very low-scoring start to the year. I’m expecting that bounce back to continue in this matchup, especially at the current number.
The Ravens boast the NFL’s 6th-ranked scoring offense at 25.9 points per game, primarily due to a strong ground game that starts with Lamar Jackson, who’s fifth in the league with 510 rushing yards and leads the NFL with a beastly 7.7 yards per carry. Gus Edwards made his return to the lineup last week and took control of the backfield immediately, leading Baltimore’s RB group with 23 snaps and turning them into 16 carries for 66 yards and two TDs. Baltimore seems set on a committee approach with Edwards, Justice Hill, and Kenyan Drake, which always ensures fresh legs in the backfield. The result so far is the 5th ranked rushing offense in the league at over 156 yards per game. Tampa Bay is allowing just over 118 rushing yards per game so far this year, which puts them right around the league average, but they’ve yet to face a dual-threat QB like Jackson.
Tampa’s offense has sputtered as of late with just 21 points in their last two games combined, but a home game in primetime might be the perfect chance for them to get right. There’s certainly holes in this offensive unit that we don’t typically see in Tom Brady-led teams, but I don’t see last week’s three point output against Carolina repeating itself any time soon. The Bucs still have one of the more talented receiver groups in football, and that group could be in for a massive rebound against a Baltimore secondary that’s struggled to slow down opposing wideouts, giving up the third most receiving yards to WRs through seven weeks.
I expect this matchup to be close down the stretch and lead to a good deal of second half scoring, and both teams’ defensive shortcomings appear to play to their opponents’ strengths.
OVER: RYAN SUCCOP OVER 1.5 FG MADE
Admittedly not the most exciting prop, but we’re going for wins here, not just good times.
In what’s been a disappointing start to the year for the Buccaneers, Ryan Succop has been one of the bright spots. He’s fantasy’s No. 5 kicker with 16 makes on 17 attempts, including going nine for nine on kicks of 40+ yards, and his 94.1% success rate is third among kickers with over 10 attempts. His five attempts from 29 yards or less are the second most in the league, which makes sense considering the Bucs are tied for 27th in red zone TD percentage at just 47.4%.
I think Tampa will be able to move the ball against Baltimore’s secondary, but definitely expect a few drives to stall out after getting in field goal range, giving Succop a handful of easy chances to hit this over.
UNDER: LAMAR JACKSON UNDER 205.5 PASSING YARDS
Through seven games, Lamar Jackson is averaging about 181 passing yards in Baltimore’s wins, and 224 yards per game in their losses. This isn’t in any way a knock on Jackson as a passer, but it does drive home the point that Baltimore is a much more effective offense when they’re emphasizing their rushing attack.
That point was driven home even more last week, when Jackson completed nine of his 16 attempts for just 120 yards, and Baltimore escaped with a win. Albeit in poor weather, that was against a very poor Cleveland secondary; against a Tampa team that’s ranked sixth against the pass, it’ll be much tougher to move the ball through the air. Jackson’s topped this number just once in his last four games, and I don’t think he does it in this matchup, either.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER: LAMAR JACKSON +175
Getting a team’s leading rusher to score a TD at almost 2-to-1 odds seems like cheating to me.
Jackson doesn’t have a rushing TD since Week 3, but in my twisted brain, that just means he’s due. After Gus Bus rumbled for two scores in his 2022 debut, I think stopping him in the red zone will be a major point of emphasis for Tampa’s defensive front, leaving them susceptible to a play action bootleg that gets Jackson out of the pocket and into open field where he’s most dangerous. Plus, Lamar’s always a candidate to break off a huge chunk play no matter where he is on the field. Love the value here.
