Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first, if you haven’t already.
Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in Week 1, how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in Week 2, and Mike ThaGawd White at QB this past week.
In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.
WINNING STRATEGY
Carson Wentz — $5700, 20.34 pts, 8% ownership
Eli Mitchell — $5400, 22.7, 11%
Michael Carter — $4900, 32.2, 6%
Cooper Kupp — $9000, 27.5, 14.6%
AJ Brown — $6900, 34.5, 14.5%
Michael Pittman — $5300, 30.6, 26.4%
Pat Freiermuth —$3600, 14.4, 4.5%
Chris Godwin — $6400, 31, 24.6%
Seahawks DEF — $2800, 13, 5.1%
Total Points — 226.24
- Stack: Single-stack with a run-it-back. Our third single-stack, second with a runback
- Used all $50G of the salary cap, the fifth time that’s happened. Stack/runback used $17900, 35.8-percent of the cap ($5967-per-player)
- Stack used Vegas’ highest over/under out of twelve games (TEN at IND, O/U 51). The first time this season that’s happened.
- Wentz joins Joe Burrow (week 1, $5800) and Baker Mayfield (week 6, $5900) as the only QBs under $6700
- Derrick Henry (week 2, $8300) is the only one out of now 17 running backs that cost over $6700
- Total ownership percentage: 114.7. Week 5 (111.8%) is the only time it’s been higher than 93-percent this year
THE SKILL
Chris Godwin had opportunity knocking with Antonio Brown still being out, Rob Gronkowski being eased back into action, and Mike Evans historically having a rough time versus Marshon Lattimore and the Saints coverage.
Pat Freiermuth also had opportunity knocking with Eric Ebron being ruled out versus the Browns.
Even a subpar defense like the Seahawks makes sense to put in play until the Jags can start putting it together.
Any lead back in a competent offense with a $5400 tag deserves attention, like Eli Mitchell.
Kupp bein’ Kupp, and AJ Brown has shown for two weeks in a row now his return to old form (old at 24 years old? Anyway…).
And Carson Wentz versus a bad Titans secondary is no crazy contrarian move. TY Hilton‘s exit during the game opened up more opportunities for Michael Pittman, but Pittman was set to see plenty of action anyway.
THE LUCK
Notice I said “in a competent offense” before. The Bengals, and the Bills for that matter, may have been guilty of taking their foot off the gas pedal some before playing a team they thought they’d beat just by walking in the door.
For week 8, the run defense of the Bengals played opposite of what their PFF and DVOA ratings expressed, and Michael Carter absolutely feasted. Regression to the mean is no surprise, but to this extent…wow.
CONCERNING CORRELATION WITH VEGAS ODDS
The winning Millionaire stack didn’t match up with Vegas’ highest total points line until this week. As much as we pay attention to those odds the winning lineup’s stack compared to that week’s Caesar’s Sportsbook total points line has largely been middle-of-the-pack:
Week 1: 6th-highest of 13 games
Week 2: 3rd of 13
Week 3: 8th of 13
Week 4: 4th of 13
Week 5: 6th of 12
Week 6: 5th of 10
Week 7: 2nd of 10
Week 8: 1st of 12
