Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first, if you haven’t already.
Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in Week 1, how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in Week 2, and the Titans’ defense against the Chiefs this past week.
In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.
WINNING STRATEGY
'meaganjoy' took down the $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire yesterday and scored a ticket to our #DKChampSeries Tournament of Champions.
$3.5M standings: https://t.co/JDQVScRNRs pic.twitter.com/o96Oxpxsjn
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) October 25, 2021
Matthew Stafford — $7100, 30.16 points
D’Andre Swift — $6000, 28.4
Damien Harris — $5700, 28.3
Chris Godwin — $5900, 28.1
Cooper Kupp — $8400, 40.6
Terry McLaurin — $6900, 28.2
Foster Moreau — $2500, 18
Van Jefferson — $3500, 14.3
Buccaneers D — $4000, 21
Total Points — 237.06
- Stack: Double-stack with a run-it-back. Second time that’s happened this season
- Salary cost was all $50,000, fourth time this season. Cost of the stack/runback was $25000, 50% of the total cap spent ($6250-per-player)
- Stack used Vegas’ 2nd highest over/under out of ten games (DET at LAR, O/U 50.5)
- Joe Burrow (week 1, $5800) and Baker Mayfield (week 6, $5900) are the only winning QBs under $6700 so far
- Derrick Henry (week 2, $8300) is the only RB of now fifteen to cost more than $6700 in winning lineups
- Total ownership percentage: 91.4. It hasn’t been higher than 93.0-percent except for week 5 (111.8%)
THE SKILL
Had to get the Matthew Stafford revenge game in there if you were spitting out lineups this week.
It wasn’t the shellacking many expected, which helped the Rams’ offense keep from leaning predominantly on the ground game. Normally this point may land in the “luck” category, but however, Stafford may still have had the green light to air it out even if it was a blowout.
There was no shame in paying up for defense in prime position to make sure Justin Fields and the Bears don’t hit an offensive stride for another week.
THE LUCK
Cooper Kupp’s alpha status leaves no question why he’d be included in a Rams stack, but maybe Van Jefferson’s TD catch goes to Tyler Higbee. Or, maybe the run game is more effective and Darrell Henderson finds his way into the endzone.
Or maybe, the Bucs-Bears slate doesn’t leave room for two Tampa Bay wide receivers to have monster games. In which case, Mike Evans could have easily ended up as the home run hitter.
THE FOSTER MOREAU QUESTION
There were already rumblings of Darren Waller not feeling great going into Sunday, but the call to keep him out of their four o’clock game didn’t come until after the one o’clock games already started.
So which was it, was Foster Moreau a late swap, or an original member of the lineup before Waller was ruled out?
Moreau has hawked targets and TDs from Waller before, so the latter is certainly realistic if we already know Waller is not 100%.
Add in the fact that only Damien Harris and Terry McLaurin were playing in the one o’clock games, and there was a lot of flexibility if indeed Waller was subbed out after the early games began.
Being the winner’s 83rd lineup, there was definitely flexibility in the sheer amount of lineups being created to take a shot on Moreau, and lock him in before any games begin even if Waller did end up suiting up.
It’s an interesting guess to make, and a reminder of how being aware of our options as much we can only assist our own flexibility, and therefore our own leverage.
