The Window is about to be SLAMMED SHUT on the buy-low window for Broncos rookie running back, Javonte Williams.
So far this season the RB workload has been split pretty evenly.
Let’s take a look at the Williams vs. Melvin Gordon per game averages:
Rushing Attempts: 10.8 vs. 12
Targets: 2.4 vs. 2.6
Total Opportunities: 13.2 v.s 14.6
Snap Share: 50%, 41%, 40%, 51%, 42% vs. 50%, 59%, 54%, 49%, 60%
The even split should be viewed as a good sign, at least it was to start the season. But as we inch towards the midway part of the season, it’s getting annoying to see the duo continue to split the work. Williams has both a higher rate of missed tackles forced per carry (0.35 vs. 0.17) and yards after contact per carry (3.1 vs 2.8). He also has the highest forced missed tackle rate in the NFL (per PFF). Overall, the rookie has been the more explosive back.
It’s not that Gordon has been bad by any stretch. But Williams has just been that good. Prior to Week 5, Williams had forced only ONE fewer missed tackle (17) than Nick Chubb (18)! And that’s on 23 fewer carries! Williams has been a problem for defenses all season and it’s only a matter of time before he takes a stranglehold on this backfield. The dude is a stud.
Free Javonte Williams pic.twitter.com/7Ljh2Sb3L8
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 12, 2021
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE IS A BONUS
It gets even better for Williams and the Denver Broncos, as they have one of the easiest schedules remaining for running backs. Six of their final nine games are against teams that rank in the bottom-third in rush DVOA. He also faces the easiest strength of schedule for running backs during the nut-crunch weeks of 11 to 15.
BUY-LOW, NOW
Williams in the 2021 version of 2020 Jonathan Taylor. Taylor started last year as the RB19 from Weeks 1 through 10. He finished the season in Weeks 11-17 as the RB3 in PPR formats. They even averaged a similar PPR point per opportunity.
2021 Javonte Williams vs. 2020 Jonathan Taylor — Weeks 1-5
Williams – 66 Opportunities vs. 46.2 PPR == 0.7 PPR/Opp
Taylor – 90 Opportunities vs. 71.4PPR == 0.79 PPR/ Opp
The only difference is the opportunities and it’s only a matter of time before he starts to dominate RB touches for the Broncos. Go get Williams while you can.
The rookie checks in at RB21 on The Wolf’s Rest of Season Big Board.
