Each week, I’ll be expanding on the DraftKings Millionaire Maker analysis provided by Adam Levitan here and The Wolf here. I encourage you to look at those articles first, if you haven’t already.
Breakdowns of trends in lineup structure for particular weeks can be found on the subreddit r/dfsports, and every week linestarapp.com gives you the highest possible scoring Millionaire lineup. Visit the latter to remind you how absurd this game can be, like how you should’ve stacked the Lions in week 1, and how Maxx Williams was apparently the tight end to roll out in week 2.
In this series, I’ll be looking at trends that DFS players track, diving into the skill/luck dichotomy, and more.
We have a winner: 'topher1072' took home the trophy in this week's $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire raking up a total of 233.34 FPTS. pic.twitter.com/IVDCMZM6rr
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) September 20, 2021
WINNING STRATEGY
Tom Brady — $6900
Derrick Henry — $8300
Leonard Fournette — $5100
Tyler Lockett — $7200
Rondale Moore — $4000
Cooper Kupp — $6000
Rob Gronkowski — $4700
Marvin Jones Jr. — $4700
Cardinals DEF — $2900
- Stack: Double stack, no run-it-back
- Stacked from Vegas’ 3rd-highest over/under game (ATL at TB, O/U 51 1/2)
- Salary Used: $49,800 out of $50,000 (99.6%)
- Total player-ownership percentage: 87.9. The general guideline is to keep your total ownership percentage between 75 and 125. Last week’s winner was 78.1-percent. Is the trend being redefined, or should we expect higher percentages in the near future?
THE SKILL
Once again, there was a double stack with no run-it-back in the top lineup. After the Falcons’ horrid week 1, this is understandable. No one would argue if the lineup had Calvin Ridley ($7500, 19.3 pts), but oddly enough, the best run-it-back value would have been Cordarrelle Patterson ($3800, 23.9 pts). With Patterson receiving the same snap count (33%) as week 1, not sure I buy into his momentum yet, but he’s been much more efficient than Mike Davis, which keeps Cordarrelle on my watch list.
Cooper Kupp out-snapped Robert Woods 49-to-40 in week 1. If not for that, Kupp might go under the “luck” category. I’d see that duo in the same vein as Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, whose snap counts are very close to equal through two weeks. Both WR duos make it very difficult to notch which one is going to go off in a particular week, so a snap count difference can make all the difference.
Kupp only edged Woods 59-to-58 in snap count in week 2, which means it’s back to toss-up status for the Rams receivers for me. It’s worth noting the differences in value for week 3. Kupp was $300 more than Woods in week 2, now this week that jumped to $1100. Tyler Lockett was $400 cheaper than Metcalf in week 2, now, he’s $100 more expensive. Both the Rams and Seahawks have week 3 matchups that have been very kind to WRs in the Bucs and Vikings, respectively. Could we see a Metcalf or Bobby Trees sighting in this weekend’s winning lineup?
Along with stacking Tampa Bay, this lineup featured players from Vegas’ 2nd-highest (TEN at SEA, O/U 54) and 4th-highest (MIN at ARI, O/U 50 1/2) over/under games. Even though the Cards’ D only mustered one DK point, the clinic they put on in week 1 made it understandable to play them against a Vikings O-line that still didn’t have left tackle Christian Darrisaw back to protect Kirk Cousins’ blindside.
THE LUCK
Derrick Henry is not here for his monster rushing numbers. We all know his potential to post that kind of game, and so does Maurice Jones-Drew. Henry faced a Seahawks defense still trying to sniff its Legion of Boom days. But Henry’s six catches were the most in a game in his career, and his 55 receiving yards were the third most.
His resulting 50.7 Draftkings points allowed him to be present in the top 36 winning Millionaire lineups. And, it allowed for other positions to produce less yet still win big money. The top lineup features one example in the Cardinals defense (1 pt). Examples from other top lineups include Jared Cook ($3900, 5.8 pts), Jalen Guyton ($3100, 4.2 pts), and Eli Mitchell ($5000, 7.3 pts).
We very likely aren’t talking about this lineup if Vegas’ highest projected over/under, Cowboys-Chargers (O/U 54 1/2), didn’t substantially underperform with 37 total points. Throughout this season, I’ll be keeping an eye on how accurate O/U’s are and observing how good of an idea it was to use high O/U’s to sculpt our lineups.
Or, I’ll share the work of someone who already covered it, if I see it.
NOTABLE HIGHER-SCORING ALTERNATIVES
Double-stacking with a Bucs running back is already a pretty contrarian move, but the top-15 Millionaire lineups included examples of cheaper, arguably more contrarian, backs that would’ve netted more points than Lenny. Examples include Devin Singletary ($4900, 17.1 pts), James White ($4600, 18.5 pts), and Zach Moss ($4500, 16.4 pts).
A whopping 12 out of the 15 defenses that were the same price or lower than the Cardinals ($2900) scored higher.
