As former President George W. Bush said, “Fool me once — shame, shame on you. Fool me, can’t get fooled again.”
Well, some of us have been fooled by the tantalizing speed of Mecole Hardman. And not just once in 2020, but you may have taken a shot on him as a rookie in 2019 as well.
Now, Sammy Watkins heads to the Baltimore Ravens, leaving behind 527 regular-season snaps. The door’s been busted open for the next WR2 on the Kansas City Chiefs points factory, and eyes look Hardman’s way, and why shouldn’t they?
Despite getting the least amount of snaps between him (499), Watkins (527), and Demarcus Robinson (711), he saw the most targets (62, Robinson saw 59, and Watkins 55). His ability to break away for a TD whenever he gets the ball in his hands gets him attention from Patrick Mahomes and keeps us tantalized.
But at this point, it’s no secret that run blocking struggles and unpolished route running have kept his opportunities down. The latter was apparent late in the season and postseason.
The Athletic’s Nate Taylor notes Hardman’s willingness, and application, of improving these areas of his game:
“Through minicamp, it’s clear that Hardman has made sizable improvements, whether it’s his route running, his consistency when catching the ball or his overall demeanor on the practice fields.”
Nate dove in with The Wolf to talk about how the Chiefs would like to spread the ball out more this season. He also pointed out that Hardman may have been one of the players whose development was stunted by the shortened 2020 offseason due to Covid-19.
Still a Mecole truther? Don’t get your head down. Like George Dubya Bush said, “…you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda.”
In the Chiefs’ preseason finale vs the Vikings, Hardman did receive the start in two-receiver sets, splitting time there overall with Demarcus Robinson. It wasn’t encouraging for Byron Pringle, who saw some action in the other preseason games, but was only in for one out of the fifteen snaps that Mahomes was playing. Still, it may be unwise to take these receivers’ preseason reps with more than a grain of salt.
Factor in the eight targets Hardman saw against the Cardinals in Kansas City’s second preseason game, and there’s certainly some substance to argue, over and over and over again, for a Mecole breakout going into his third year.
DEEPER THAN JUST THE RECEIVERS?
Nate Taylor and Arrowhead Addict’s Logan Lazarczyk point out the Chiefs’ outspoken emphasis on spreading the ball around, not just to their WR’s, but also getting running backs and tight ends not named Travis Kelce more involved.
This point was in action against the Vikings, as Mahomes connected with Demarcus Robinson for two first-down completions and tight end Blake Bell for a score. Kelce and Tyreek Hill accounted for only three of Mahomes’ eight completions, which included a reception to running backs Darwin Thompson and Jerrick McKinnon.
A Chiefs offense that takes the emphasis off of Hill and Kelce, and spreads out the aerial pie more, results in more opportunities for other players, and theoretically more efficiency with those targets. But, it doesn’t necessarily mean someone will cement themselves as the bonafide third option.
The Chiefs brought in running back Jerick McKinnon, and The Athletic’s Nate Taylor believes he still has burst. Jerrick’s ability in the receiving game means another player that can chip away at the aerial pie along with backfield mate Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
CLYDE’S RECEIVING UPSIDE
Many are wondering if CEH can make a sophomore leap into fantasy RB1 territory. Even if he sees an uptick in targets, it’ll be hard to draft him comfortably as an RB1, as Arrowhead Addict’s Logan Lazarczyk states:
“Last season, Edwards-Helaire had 29 red zone rushing attempts, 15 of those were inside the 10-yard line, ranking 23rd among qualifying running backs. The 22-year-old running back’s conversion rate was extremely low at 10.34%.”
With additions headed by Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney, PFF’s 2nd most improved offensive line could be enough to support a CEH leap, and make him more effective in the red zone.
But is it enough to make CEH third on the target totem pole? According to The Wolf, no. That title belongs to Mecole Hardman in his inaugural season of player projections:
Clearly, Hardman’s 90 targets are no detriment to each of Hill and Kelce’s 147, as The Wolf still projects their dominance to hold steady. Interestingly, CEH’s targets, as well as the backfield as a whole, projects to be a hair short of their 2020 total.
SUMMARY
Wolf’s projections largely mirror the 2021 Rankings and Big Board, though the rankings do incorporate floor/ceiling considerations, as opposed to settling on a final stat line. It’s in the rankings that we find:
Tyreek Hill (WR2)
Mecole Hardman (WR53)
Demarcus Robinson (WR77)
Byron Pringle (WR78)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB14)
Jerrick McKinnon (RB49)
Travis Kelce (TE1)
Noah Gray (TE32)
The Wolf sees Clyde jump from 2020’s RB22 to the RB14 in half-PPR, not quite an RB1, and still expresses hesitancy in Mecole Hardman, keeping him WR5 territory.
In all this, we at Roto Street Journal aim to help you succeed, because we know you’re ambitious. And as Dubya reminds us, “I hope the ambitious realize that they are more likely to succeed with success as opposed to failure.”
