2020 Fantasy Football: The Workload Report – Week 3 - Roto Street Journal
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2020 Fantasy Football: The Workload Report – Week 3

The Workload Report is broken up into three distinct sections: Opportunity, Production, and Results. The ultimate goal is to dive in and find out where these coveted fantasy points are coming from every week for every team. I envision that these categories will stay the same throughout the season, but some of the specific stats may change as I continue to fine-tune this.

Make sure you read the Week 1 Workload Report for an introduction to some of the categories included.

This week I decided to shorten up the PDF version of the report, as I only sorted per position in some of the main categories. Don’t worry, for all of you data nerds I am still including an excel version of this so that you can dig into everything yourself.

In addition to the Weekly Rankings (scroll down to the bottom of the article), I have included a lot more analysis and screenshots from the report on different categories of players that stuck out to me. Hopefully, this will help you find actionable ways to read the report.

Any feedback you have, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and we can talk shop!

The Workload Report: Week 3

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

Week 3 Fantasy All-Stars

Alvin Kamara continued his domination of the 2020 season, accounting for 51% of his team’s total fantasy points on Sunday. With Michael Thomas sidelined against the Packers, Kamara piled up 139 receiving yards including a 52-yard touchdown that rumbled the Twitter-sphere. Minshew Mania came to a screeching halt on Thursday night, but James Robinson was able to carry the fantasy load. Accounting for 41% of Jacksonville’s fantasy points on Thursday night, Robinson had six targets and put together an impressive 29% usage rating. The Panthers only put up a total of 58.4 PPR points on Sunday, but Mike Davis accounted for 40% of them. Carolina’s new lead back tried his best to fill Christian McCaffrey’s shoes posting 46 rushing yards, 45 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns on Sunday against the Chargers.

Saved by the Endzone

Rex Burkhead was a DFS darling on Sunday against the Raiders, racking up 34.8 PPR points with the help of three touchdown scores. Burkhead only saw six rushing attempts, but his big day was bolstered by 10 targets from Cam Newton. The Patriots backfield is still a bit of a disaster, and I’m not sure the target share is sustainable for Burkhead when James White gets back in the lineup. In the headliner matchup of the weekend, Tyler Lockett accounted for three of Russell Wilson’s five TD passes. It’s tough to call this an outlier game for Lockett because with the condensed receiving production we are seeing out of Seattle, I think we can expect to see some more multiple touchdown pass games for both receivers. Andy Isabella and Tee Higgins both scored more than 20 PPR points, but neither player had more than 50 yards receiving and their big fantasy days were almost completely reliant on two touchdown catches each.

A Touchdown away from Breaking the Slate

DeAndre Hopkins continues to prove that his connection with Kyler Murray is one of the best in the league (after only 3 games). Hopkins caught ten passes for 137 yards on Sunday, which was still good for 34% of the Cardinals PPR points even without a score. A week after AJ Green turned 16 targets into 4 catches, Joe Burrow decided to give his other stud receiver a tryout. Tyler Boyd stepped up to the plate, turning his 13 targets into 125 yards which were good for 28% of the Bengals PPR points. If he had managed to steal one of Higgins’ touchdowns, a lot more people would be talking about Boyd this week.

Biggest Week 3 Breakouts

Prior to Week 3, Justin Jefferson had only seen 10% of the Vikings Air Yards, but on Sunday he exploded for 175 Yards on seven catches. The 30.5 PPR point explosion was a 26% increase on his season average and it will be interesting to see if it is maintainable. Jefferson did see his target share triple in Week 3, so if the Vikings can keep their offense out of the 20th century, we should be seeing more production from Jefferson in the future. Cedrick Wilson only saw 5% of the Cowboys snaps during the first two weeks of the season, but on Sunday he exploded for 27.7 PPR points and two touchdowns. With the amount of horsepower that Dallas has on offense, it is tough to see Wilson being able to produce every week.

Biggest Week 3 Busts

A week after posting a career-high 179 receiving yards, Julian Edelman only put up 4.2 PPR points in Sunday’s win against the Raiders. This is a 25% decrease in fantasy point share by Edelman from his week 1 and 2 average, but his 21% target share helps give us pause on sounding the alarms. Edelman should bounce back in the next Patriots game that sees them in a more neutral game script. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense did what Bill Belichick is known for and took away the Raiders’ best option. A week after seeing 16 targets, Darren Waller only saw four this week and turned them into just 2.9 PPR points. You would have to imagine that Waller becomes and more integral part of the offense next week, especially with the nagging injuries to Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs, and Bryan Edwards. If you are able to, I would buy low on Waller in all formats. Darrell Henderson appears to really have secured the lead running back role for the Rams, much to the dismay of the fantasy owners who blew 50% of their FAAB budget on Malcolm Brown in Week 1. Brown hasn’t done much since his two-touchdown explosion and only saw seven rushing attempts and two targets in a shootout with the Bills. This backfield looks like Henderson’s to lose.

Dominating the Dominator Rating

It’s not hard to post a high Dominator rating when your team only scores a total of 48.7 PPR points (that’s 4 less than Alvin Kamara’s total) and you have the only touchdown. Braxton Berrios has risen to the top of the New York Jets receiving corps with both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman sidelined by injury, and while people may be rushing to the waivers to pick him up, I still would have a tough time starting him this week against the Broncos. I want no part of this Adam Gase offense. The Tennessee Titans scored 31 points on Sunday and Derrick Henry accounted for both touchdowns (don’t worry you read that right, Stephen Gostkowski kicked six field goals). Henry was a chalky flameout in Week 2, but he proceeded to rip off 119 rushing yards (89% share) against the porous Vikings defense and his 52% Dominator rating finished in the top five this week.

Establishing the Team Dominance

In Justin Herbert’s second career start (and his first one that he had time to prepare for), he needed all the help he could get from his star wide receiver. Keenan Allen caught 13 passes for 132 yards and a touchdown and while the Chargers managed to only score 16 points, you’ve got to feel good about Allen moving forward. Speaking of feeling good, not many people are feeling better than Allen Lazard this week. Green Bay’s number 2 receiver exploded for 146 yards against the Saints and looked completely dialed in with Aaron Rodgers. If Davante Adams continues to be sidelined with the hamstring issues, Lazard should be fired up as a WR2.

Air Yards = Future Production

Here’s a guy I didn’t expect to see on the Air Yards list this week, Chris Conley. He only caught three passes for 34 yards, but with DJ Chark sidelined, Conley sure saw a lot of opportunities come his way. I wouldn’t be selling the farm for him, but he’s just another Jacksonville wide receiver that we need to keep our eye on. Calvin Ridley is the man, 260 Air Yards are you kidding me? Not much more needs to be said about this guy. He has fully broken out and may finish the season as a Top 5 WR.

Receiving Yard Alpha Dogs

I’ve already touched on most of these guys. It is pretty awesome seeing Kamara this high up the leaderboard in Week 3. The guy is a true dual threat.

Rushing Yard Alpha Dogs

Everything about games that end in ties is weird to me. It just doesn’t make you feel great looking up at the box score knowing neither of these teams had the huevos to try and pull a win out in OT. Something that sticks out is that Joe Mixon accounted for every single one of Cincinnati’s rushing yards on Sunday (Burrow ran for -1 yard). He is a prime buy-low candidate. I am also interested in David Johnson, as he has proven himself to be the bell-cow in Houston. We can debate whether or not Houston’s front office and coaching staff (same thing right?) are competent all day long but one thing I do know is the Pittsburgh run defense has been dominant this year. Johnson’s workload should equal a lot higher output in Week 4 against the porous Vikings defense.

Budding Bell-Cows

Here are the snap counts for Miami’s running backs on Thursday: Myles Gaskin (46), Matt Breida (11), Jordan Howard (4). Seems to me like the Dolphins have found their guy. Now if only we could cut down on some of the Howard goal-line vultures. Darrell Henderson seems like the most explosive guy on the field for the Rams. He should be their go-to guy even when Cam Akers returns healthy.

Losing their Grip on RB1 status

It’s still up in the air whether Washington will face another positive game script as they had in Week 1 against Philadelphia. This was when Peyton Barber shined, but now this backfield is Antonio Gibson’s. It appears that everyone except Matt Patricia thinks that D’Andre Swift is the Lions best running back. Maybe getting Stafford back to his form will help ease the pass-catching back into a receiving role but for now, it’s tough to even keep him on your roster.

Dominant Target Hogs

We have already touched on most of these guys up above. Jerry Jeudy sticks out as a potential DFS captain on Thursday night. The Broncos QB situation is not a fun one to think about though. Hopefully, Jeudy isn’t the next Allen Robinson who can never seem to play with a good QB. While the Eagles have been a complete trainwreck, Zach Ertz has been a constant target hog for Carson Wentz this season. He should only get better now that Dallas Goedert is set to miss some time and while the receivers are still decimated by injuries.

Falling out of Favor in the Receiving Corps

Previously mentioned Russell Gage here, but overlooked his concussion and the fact that he only played one quarter. It does look like Quintez Cephus may have been a flash in the pan for the Detroit Lions. With Kenny Golladay back in the mix and a pretty positive game script for their passing attack, the rookie out of Wisconsin only played 10 snaps and didn’t see any targets in Week 3.

Honorable Work Ethic

It’s tough to criticize these iron men who are stepping out on the field pretty much anytime their offense runs a play. A couple of these guys turned in disappointing weeks (Darius Slayton, Tre’Quan Smith), but the opportunity is clearly there.

The Workload Report: Week 3

Excel Version of the Report – Available Here

Updated Rankings

Running Backs

Runaway Bell-Cows

  1. Alvin Kamara
  2. Derrick Henry
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. Josh Jacobs
  5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  6. Aaron Jones
  7. James Robinson
  8. Dalvin Cook
  9. James Conner
  10. Chris Carson
  11. David Johnson
  12. Jonathan Taylor
  13. Miles Sanders
  14. Mike Davis
  15. Melvin Gordon
  16. David Montgomery
  17. Devin Singletary

Bell-cows Dealing with a 3rd Down/Goal-Line Vulture

  1. Austin Ekeler
  2. Joe Mixon
  3. Todd Gurley
  4. Kenyan Drake
  5. Antonio Gibson
  6. Myles Gaskin

Running Back by Committee (RBBC) w/ Fantasy Potential

  1. Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt
  2. Ronald Jones & Leonard Fournette
  3. Darrell Henderson & Cam Akers & Malcolm Brown
  4. Raheem Mostert & Jerick McKinnon & Jeff Wilson
  5. Mark Ingram & Gus Edwards & JK Dobbins

Untouchable backfield until further notice

  1. Adrian Peterson & D’Andre Swift & Kerryon Johnson
  2. Sony Michel & Rex Burkhead & James White
  3. Devonta Freeman & Dion Lewis & Wayne Gallman
  4. Frank Gore & Lamical Perine & Josh Adams & Kallen Balage

Wide Receivers

Alpha Target Hogs

  1. DeAndre Hopkins
  2. Davante Adams
  3. Keenan Allen
  4. Terry McLaurin
  5. Adam Thielen
  6. Tyreek Hill
  7. Michael Thomas
  8. Allen Robinson
  9. Kenny Golladay
  10. Jamison Crowder
  11. Julian Edelman
  12. Tyler Boyd

Receiving Room Busting with Talent

  1. Calvin Ridley & Julio Jones
  2. Tyler Lockett & DK Metcalf
  3. Amari Cooper & CeeDee Lamb & Michael Gallup
  4. Stefon Diggs & John Brown & Cole Beasley
  5. Cooper Kupp & Robert Woods
  6. JuJu Smith-Schuster & Diontae Johnson & Chase Claypool
  7. Mike Evans & Chris Godwin
  8. DJ Moore & Robby Anderson & Curtis Samuel
  9. Odell Beckham & Jarvis Landry
  10. DJ Chark & Keelan Cole & Chris Conley & Laviska Shenault

Fantasy Breakout Waiting to Happen

  1. Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler
  2. Will Fuller & Brandin Cooks & Randall Cobb
  3. Hunter Renfrow & Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards
  4. Darius Slayton & Golden Tate
  5. TY Hilton & Zach Pascal
  6. Davante Parker & Preston Williams

Tough to Count on as your WR3

  1. Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin & Devin Duvernay
  2. Corey Davis & Adam Humphries
  3. DeSean Jackson & Greg Ward & John Hightower
  4. Kendrick Bourne & Brandon Aiyuk & Trent Taylor

Tight Ends

Every Week Baller

  1. Travis Kelce
  2. George Kittle
  3. Mark Andrews
  4. Darren Waller
  5. Zach Ertz
  6. Mike Gesicki
  7. Jonnu Smith
  8. Hunter Henry
  9. Noah Fant
  10. TJ Hockenson
  11. Hayden Hurst
  12. Evan Engram
  13. Jimmy Graham
  14. Mo Allie-Cox

Fantasy Relevant

  1. Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett
  2. Robert Tonyan
  3. Logan Thomas
  4. Dalton Schultz
  5. Rob Gronkowski & OJ Howard

Fantasy Potential

  1. Eric Ebron
  2. Greg Olsen & Jacob Hollister & Will Dissly
  3. Chris Herndon
  4. Austin Hooper & Harrison Bryant
  5. Jared Cook & Adam Trautman
  6. Tyler Kroft & Lee Smith & Dawson Knox
  7. Jordan Akins & Darren Fells

Out there to Block

  1. Ian Thomas
  2. Drew Sample
  3. James O’Shaugnessy & Tyler Eifert
  4. Kyle Rudolph
  5. Darrell Daniels & Dan Arnold
  6. Ryan Izzo

Author

  • Engineer by day, Fantasy Football addict by night. Loves digging deep into the nitty-gritty to try and build a masterpiece from the numbers. When not contributing to RSJ, you'll find Jon in almost every Best Ball lobby possible. Twitter: @JonBoyBeats #showmethedata

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