Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets Picks and Breakdown - Roto Street Journal
Player Stock Ticker
For the Best Breaking Fantasy Football News, Bookmark our Fantasy Stock Watch now: rotostreetjournal.com/stockwatch    

Super Bowl 54 Prop Bets Picks and Breakdown

It’s hard to believe, but Super Bowl 54 is already here. The final football game of the 2019-20 season before approximately 7 months of pretending that anything else can fill the football-shaped hole in our hearts.

You first start to feel it when fantasy ends, then the end of the regular season, and each passing round of the NFL postseason brings us closer and closer to reality. But that moment after the Super Bowl ends, and one team is sprinting around the field being covered in confetti, is when it really hits you that football is over, and winter has truly begun.

So, with that in mind, I’m going to do everything I can to make sure that when that moment hits, you’ve got the silver lining of a couple extra bucks in your pocket. Introducing the 4th Annual RSJ Super Bowl Prop Bet Breakdown.

The Super Bowl really is a degenerate gambler’s dream. Not only do you have the spectacle of betting on what’s typically one of the best games of the NFL season, pinning two of the league’s top squads against each other, but you can wager on anything from the length of the national anthem, to the color Gatorade dumped on the winning coach, and everything in between.

Along with the classics, this year we’ve got some great game-specific props, like: How many times will the Patriots 28-3 comeback be mentioned? How many times will Katie Sowers being the first female to coach in a Super Bowl be mentioned? And, of course, how many Instagram posts will Patrick Mahomes’ (unbearable) girlfriend post on Super Bowl Sunday?

The slate is a great one, so let’s dive in before I puke in my mouth thinking about Mahomes’ girl for too long.

Pregame Props

How long will it take Demi Lovato to sing the National Anthem?

Over 2 minutes: -260

Under 2 minutes: +175

Demi Lovato gets the nod for this year’s anthem, and she’s a great choice. Lovato followed in the footsteps of countless child stars by starring on the Disney Channel and subsequently having a serious drug problem, but her comeback has been one that we can all root for. Just last Sunday during one of the more emotional Grammy nights you’ll ever see, Lovato fought back tears and delivered an incredible performance that brought the crowd to its feet. She’s also been waiting for this moment for quite some time.

To me, this means a few things: she’s going to cherish every second that she’s out on that field, and that she’s going to bring the HEAT. For this and many other reasons, the over/under for this anthem has been set at a pretty high 2 minutes even, and even so, the over is a HEAVY favorite. Some props are about playing the odds, and if you’re in that camp, maybe you take the under and hope for a miracle.

But as a guy with a 3-year streak in nailing this prediction, I’m taking the safe pick and hammering the Over. 

Will Demi Lovato be wearing a skirt, dress, or gown?

Yes: -175

No: +135

Dress/Skirt/Gown is the heavy favorite here and, like the over in the previous wager, probably the safe pick. But like I said, sometimes you’ve got to play the odds, and after Demi’s extravagant gown that she rocked in her Grammys’ performance, I think she’ll tone it down and rock something a bit more casual for the anthem.

I like a “No” on this one.

Media/Social Media Props

How many public Instagram posts will Patrick Mahomes’ girlfriend post on February 2nd?

Over 4.5: -155

Under 4.5: +115

Like many modern-day issues, this prop is complicated by the complexity of social media. Do Instagram stories count? In that case, I think this girl, whose name I don’t know because I can’t stand her so I don’t want to give her the satisfaction of even looking it up to say it here, hits the over WELL before kickoff. She can’t stay off the ‘gram, which is a travesty to those of us with eyes and ears but she has fun, so whatever. But if we’re talking strictly traditional posts? Maybe a pregame, a postgame or two (especially if KC wins), but 4.5 seems high.

I’m gonna take the under based on that assumption, but if we’re counting stories/IG live, that changes everything.

How many Tik Toks will Patrick Mahomes’ brother post on February 2nd?

Over 5.5: -170

Under 5.5: +130

Unlike our Instagram conundrum, this one’s simpler. Even as one of the younger statesmen here at RSJ, I’m still a bit too old for the Tik Tok game. It’s a platform strictly for horny teenagers along with the occasional adult ruining the fun for everyone — sounds like Coachella, amirite? Sorry. Anyway, Jackson Mahomes is a staple in the Tik Tok community, and he loves to use his access to cool NFL situations as a platform for his weird dancing videos. And since Tik Tok doesn’t have stories, the younger Mahomes would have to record and post 6 full videos the day of the Super Bowl to hit this over.

I’m not feeling that one bit, so I’m taking the under here as well.

How many times will the Patriots 28-3 comeback be mentioned?

Over 0.5 -190

Under 0.5: +145

Sometimes you look at the odds on a prop like this and wonder what Vegas was thinking. This is not one of those times. Kyle Shanahan back in the Super Bowl warrants at least one mention. Factor in that the Patriots, NFL ratings machine, aren’t in the game for the first time in what feels like a decade, and this one’s a no-brainer. Hammer the over.

How many times will Katie Sowers being the first female to coach in the Super Bowl be mentioned?

Over 0.5: -600

Under 0.5: +350

Again, Vegas knows. Just based on the fact that equal rights groups would RIOT if Joe Buck didn’t slip a few mentions of Katie Sowers during the broadcast. And let’s be honest, it’s a fantastic story. If you’re the kind of person that thinks someone’s gender should disqualify them from having any involvement in any sport, you’re just an idiot, and you probably can’t even figure out how to turn your TV on to watch this game in the first place.

It’ll be mentioned at least 2-3 times, so this is an easy over to take — if it’s even worth it at -600.

Will the point spread or total be mentioned on the broadcast?

Yes: +155

No: -220

I went back and forth on this one until I realized the game is on FOX with Joe and Troy this year. Joe Buck famously is always aware of the spread and point totals, and to think he won’t throw his degenerate fans a bone at least once during this game is just naive.

Especially as gambling becomes more and more accepted in modern-day sports, teams moving to Vegas and leagues partnering with authorized sports books, a one-time mention of either the spread or the total seems like a lock, so I’m saying Yes to this one.

Game Props

What will the result of the first coaches challenge be?

Play Stands: -105

Play Overturned: -135

Now we get into the in-game props, which are typically tougher to predict because they depend so much on game flow. And here’s where you do tons of research, make your best educated guess, and then it gets blown up 5 minutes into the game.

In this instance, my “tons of research” entailed heading to Reddit to see coaches challenge records. Now granted, these numbers are only through last season, but Andy Reid has made strong use of the coaches challenge in his long and illustrious career. Through last season he’d won more challenges (54) than any active coach, and had a 46.6% success rate.

Through only 2 seasons as a head coach, Shanahan had done alright as well, winning 7 of 12 challenges for a 58.3% success rate. With both coaches not too shabby, combined with the magnitude of the game, and the fact that you’re probably only challenging a play and risking the loss of a timeout if you’re really sure of it, I’m taking the favorite with Play Overturned here.

Plus, we know how awful NFL refs are, even in the Super Bowl, they’ll make plenty of mistakes, and we have 2 coaches that are willing and able to clean them up.

What team will be penalized for holding first?

Chiefs: -135

49ers: -105

The Chiefs are the heavy favorite here, but in looking at the numbers, I’m not so sure why. The 49ers were tied for 11th in the league with 20 offensive holding calls this year, while the Chiefs were tied for 21st with only 16.

That’s not a huge difference, but it’s also not my only thought process here.

Obviously, the 49ers rely heavily on the run to be successful. They’ll undoubtedly be striving to establish a successful ground game early, and with that in mind, their incredibly talented offensive line will be tasked with slowing down a Chiefs front 7 that’s never been more motivated in their lives. I think this leads to at least one early holding call against SF that sets them back a few yards early.

This prop, to a certain extent, relies on who will get the ball first, but having no knowledge there, I’m taking the 49ers for the game’s first holding call.

Will there be an onside kick?

Yes: +110

No: -150

As the Patriots showed us a few years ago, the Super Bowl is never over. A 2nd half double-digit deficit won’t discourage anyone’s strongest effort, and especially in a game that’s projected to be very close, I find it hard to believe we won’t see an onside kick at some point late in this game. It may be a last-ditch effort at salvaging a fighting chance late in the 4th, or maybe a surprise onside a la the Saints back in the day.

Either way, especially with the odds where they’re at, I like a Yes on this one.

Will there be a flea flicker?

Yes: +175

No: -260

I was hoping the Yes odds were a little better here, because honestly I’m hammering it regardless. In a game that gives each defense 2 weeks to prepare for every strength of their opponent, you almost always have to shake things up at some point to gain an edge. And looking at this game situation specifically, a flea flicker is a great play call at the right moment for either of these teams.

KC will be loading up the box to stop the run, and if Raheem Mostert all of a sudden flips it back to Jimmy Garappolo? Fireworks. On the other side, the Chiefs are only somewhat stoppable when they run the ball, so the Niners will want to take full advantage of these instances and make positive plays on defense when they can. So a quick flip back to Patrick Mahomes so he can air it out to one of his speedsters on the outside who already has half a step on the DB is a perfect way to steal a big chunk of yards in a game where they may be at a premium.

Plus, who doesn’t root for trick plays? Not me, so I’m taking Yes here.

Postgame Props

Who will win MVP?

I like to include one pick for each team here to cover whoever you think is going to win. And obviously, the winning team’s QB is always the safe pick, but who wants that? Not this guy.

Over the last decade, non-QB MVP winners have ranged from WR to LB to… actually, that’s it. The last player that wasn’t a QB, WR, or LB to win this award was Bucs safety Dexter Jackson in 2003, who picked off 2 passes in the game.

Looking at San Francisco, Raheem Mostert makes a ton of sense for a good value at +550, while Nick Bosa at +1800 is a great one if you expect this game to be defense-heavy.

For Kansas City, even though it will undoubtedly be Mahomes if they win, I’m eyeing Sammy Watkins at +5500. He had a fantastic AFC Championship game after what was a pretty disappointing season (except for Week 1 — remember that?), and he may be the perfect target for Mahomes while SF’s defense is preoccupied with Hill, Kelce and the like.

Go with Mostert or a QB if you want to be boring, but for the fun people, my picks are Bosa (+1800) and Watkins (+5500).

Who will the MVP mention first in his speech?

This one relies heavily on who you think is going to win.

If we’re playing it safe with a QB, I think God and the City are out of the question. Neither guy strikes me as particularly religious, and neither QB seems to be particularly obsessed with the region they represent. Especially if the winner is Mahomes, I love Coach at +500, as Mahomes idolizes Andy Reid, and Reid will have finally gotten the monkey off his back with his first Super Bowl win, likely cementing his spot in Canton.

Jimmy G may go coach too, especially given Kyle Shanahan’s Super Bowl past, but I like Family/Family Member at +750 for him, as he’s not only a big family guy, but he knows that nothing gets the basic women of America going more than shouting out your mom on national TV.

Either are a safe pick, but with Mahomes being a more likely candidate for MVP in my opinion, I’m going Coach at +500 here.

What color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach?

If you’ve noticed these odds changing drastically over the past few days, you’re not alone. The block is HOT with a tip that at least the Chiefs, if not both teams, are planning to have purple Gatorade to honor the late great Kobe Bryant. It’s a great tribute that shows what kind of affect Kobe had on an entire generation of athletes, and it almost feels bad to make money off it — like this asshole, who bragged about taking advantage of the tragedy to flip Kobes for a profit.

Purple was as high as +900 before this rumor started flying around, and some books aren’t even offering this prop due to the influx in bets that came in on Wednesday and beyond. If you can still get it at decent odds (I locked one in at +350 before my book took it down), I still say go for it because you’ll feel dumb if you don’t. But don’t feel like you’re alone if you see it at even money, or can’t get a bet in at all on your book.

And if you’re looking for an alternative, NFC teams tend to go orange in the Super Bowl, so Orange at +575 could be a safe one.

But I’m already locked in with Purple, and you should be too — if you still can.

If anyone cares, I’m also leaning towards the Chiefs at -1 and Under 54.5. Happy Super Bowl everybody!

Author

  • Youngest member of the RSJ team. Boston sports and not much else. 0 for 2 closing the deal on Tinder dates. Venmo: @SeanKeegan

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.