2019 Fantasy Football Strategy: Week 8 Buy Low, Sell High

The clock is ticking on your ability to Buy Low, Sell High.

Every fantasy owner is looking for their own little miracle. That doubted, slept-on guy they can get as a last round “Penny Stock” or off the waiver wire for nothing. Yet, the less glorified, but often most important way to build a fantasy championship-winner is the art of Buying Low and Selling High.

See, fantasy football is truly a stock market (hence, the name Roto Street Journal). Just like in Wall Street, the Wolves of Roto Street know exactly when to buy the right players at their lowest cost, and sell others while they’re peaking. The right trade, at the right time is often the overlooked difference between hoisting the trophy at season’s end… or watching through tears as one of your league mates does so instead.

To help you navigate the tricky fantasy trade waters, I’ll be giving you some discounted slow-starters to consider Buying Low on before they turn it around. Players who may not be lighting up the scoreboards yet, but offer future improvements in their schedule, opportunity, or team performance that owners blinded with rage may miss, all for you to steal.

On the other hand, I’ll give you the players whose values are peaking, and that you should Sell High before their true worth reveals itself. Maybe they’ve been benefited from a few cupcakes in a row. Perhaps an absent teammate is soon returning, or the schedule is about to stiffen. Regardless, selling a player at his highest value is a crucial move to boost your team’s long-term outlook.

To get our Stock Watches, Weekly Rankings and Podcast episodes directly on your iPhone, download our brand-new app in the App Store.

Buy Low

Le’Veon Bell

(Week 7: 8.6 PPR points)

Over the last few weeks I’ve included Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder in this section, citing Sam Darnold‘s return and the Jets’ upcoming schedule as signs you should stock up on this underrated offense. Now it’s Le’Veon Bell‘s turn. Coming off his worst showing of the year in a game where his offense looked completely out of whack, Bell’s price has likely never been lower. Obviously most understand that going against New England’s D can make anyone look like they belong on a high school JV team, but many will neglect to realize the run that New York’s offense has the potential to go on over the next 7 weeks.

From now until Week 14, the Jets will play just 1 team that’s in the top half of the league in slowing opposing RBs. Those weeks include 2 matchups against the hapless Dolphins (2nd-worst against RBs) along with the Giants (5th-worst) and Bengals (worst). Although Darnold has spent the 2019 season so far seeing doctors and seeing ghosts, it’s likely he’ll now be able to see that he has one of the most talented backs in the game on his roster. While Bell has averaged over 16 carries per game in 2019, he’s yet to make a huge impact in the passing game and has just 2 receptions over the past 2 weeks. Count on that to change. With a cupcake schedule looming and a team that’s desperate to make some noise in the AFC, I expect a big stretch of games from Bell, starting this week in Jacksonville.

Calvin Ridley

(Week 7: 7 PPR points)

The Falcons offense has been a shell of its former self in 2019 and just got worse as they shipped Mohamed Sanu to New England for a 2nd round pick. And while I don’t think that move is going to play any part in saving Atlanta’s lost season, I do feel good about the effect it could have on some other members of the offense — most notably, Calvin Ridley. Ridley has been a textbook boom-or-bust guy in year 2, topping 14 PPR points four times but scoring 7 points or fewer in the other 3 contests. Uncertainty about Matt Ryan‘s sprained ankle that took him out of last week’s game in the 4th quarter will also lower Ridley’s price, which makes now a great time for a trade and stash.

The “stash” comes into play as the Falcons host Seattle this week and head into a bye the following week. After that, things should start to fall into place for Ridley. Ryan will undoubtedly be back under center by then, and the Falcons will enter a stretch of 5 divisional games against teams that all struggle to stop opposing wideouts. Sanu’s 6 targets per game are fully up for grabs, and while Julio Jones should benefit as well, expect Atlanta to pepper Ridley and get his confidence up for year 3 as they try to play spoiler in the NFC South.

DK Metcalf

(Week 7: 7.3 PPR points)

2019’s NFL Combine MVP has shown glimpses of potential throughout his rookie season thus far, but all have come with red flags as well. Week 7 embodied that perfectly, as he saw a season-high 9 targets but coughed up a costly fumble late in the game. That fumble shouldn’t have too much of an impact on DK Metcalf‘s opportunities moving forward, and as the price lowers for Seattle’s #2 in targets, receiving yards, and yards per touch, the time to make a move is now.

Metcalf has become a red zone favorite of Russell Wilson, who continues to play at an MVP level despite a rough showing in Week 7. Metcalf also leads the entire NFL with 9 end zone targets, 3 more than teammate Tyler Lockett, which shows the amount of trust his All-Pro QB has in the rookie. 3 of Seattle’s next 4 games come against teams that struggle mightily to stop opposing WRs, and as they continue to make a push for the postseason despite a lackluster defense, Metcalf should be able to contribute at a high level that makes him a strong fantasy option through the 2nd half of the season.

Honorable mention: Devin Singletary, David Johnson, TJ Hockenson

Sell High

Sony Michel

(Week 7: 22.4 PPR points)

In New England’s 33-0 beatdown of the Jets on Monday night, Sony Michel was the prime benefactor of an offense that benefited from outstanding field position time and time again. He punched in 3 short-yardage TDs and finished with his best fantasy showing of the season. In fact, Michel’s top 3 games of the season have come over the past 3 weeks, and that combined with a few other factors makes him the perfect sell-high candidate.

Aside from the 3 scores against the Jets, Michel has a pretty grotesque stat line — 19 carries for 42 yards, and 1 catch for -8 — and didn’t show great vision or explosiveness at all. A TD-or-bust running back is never fun to rely on, especially in an offense that spreads the ball around as much as the Patriots do. All of Michel’s TD runs were 3 yards or less, and one wouldn’t have happened if a penalty hadn’t brought back a James White TD run. And with Brandon Bolden becoming a relatively important player in the Patriots offense, Rex Burkhead always liable to come back and steal some red zone carries, and new faces coming in to bolster the passing game, there just may not be enough opportunities for Michel to continue being fantasy-relevant.

Marvin Jones Jr.

(Week 7: 43.3 PPR points)

Coming off of an absolute dud in Week 6, Marvin Jones Jr. exploded against the Vikings, catching 10 of 13 targets for 93 yards and 4 TDs. His performance made him Week 7’s WR1 and, while it wasn’t even enough to win Detroit the game, definitely won some fantasy matchups for people who were savvy (or desperate?) enough to start him. Jones has put together a pretty solid season to this point, and that could continue against a porous Giants secondary in Week 8, but selling now while he’s peaking could pay huge dividends for you in the coming weeks.

After generous matchups with New York and Oakland, Detroit faces Chicago (twice) and Dallas, two of the best teams in the NFL in slowing opposing wideouts, over a 4-week span with a bye mixed in as well. Detroit’s offense will likely take a hit with Kerryon Johnson heading to IR, and defenses will be able to focus more attention on stopping the passing game. And with team target leader Kenny Golladay along with Danny Amendola, who led the team with 105 receiving yards on Sunday, still in the mix, it may be tough for Jones to continue posting big performances in what’s been a very average offensive attack. It may be tough to part ways with him right now, especially if you had him benched for his big breakout, but someone will overpay for Jones, so take advantage.

Corey Davis

(Week 7: 20 PPR points)

Yuck. Even putting Corey Davis in this section kind of hurts. The guy has been a letdown for his entire career to this point, and now he’s the hot pickup of the week after showing some solid chemistry with Ryan Tannehill in Week 7. He set season-high marks in targets and receptions, and heading into a matchup with the Bucs awful secondary, he’s being touted as the next great waiver wire savior. And I don’t buy it for a second.

Not only do I not trust Davis to perform consistently, I also don’t trust Tannehill to complete 80% of his passes and throw for 300 yards on a regular basis. I also don’t trust Tennessee to stick with Tannehill if he struggles at any point over the 2nd half of the season, and we all know how useless Davis is with Marcus Mariota under center. Also, after Tampa Bay, Tennessee faces 4 straight middle of the pack secondaries with a bye in the middle — not exactly a recipe for breakout performances from a historically inconsistent source. In my book, the dream scenario would be snagging Davis in waivers this week and flipping him to someone who wants him more in exchange for some RB or WR depth. It may not be the flashiest move on Earth, but you’ll be glad you did it.

Honorable mention: Royce Freeman, Phillip Dorsett, Kyle Rudolph


Related Posts