Updated Week 4 Buy Low, Sell High
Every fantasy owner is looking for their own little miracle. That doubted, slept-on guy they can get as a last round “Penny Stock” or off the waiver wire for nothing. Yet, the less glorified, but often most important way to build a fantasy championship-winner is the art of Buying Low and Selling High.
See, fantasy Football is truly a stock market (hence, the name Roto Street Journal). Just like in Wall Street, the Wolves of Roto Street know exactly when to buy the right players at their lowest cost, and sell others while they’re peaking. The right trade, at the right time is often the overlooked difference between hoisting the trophy at season’s end… or watching through tears as one of your league mates does so instead.
To help you navigate the tricky fantasy trade waters, I’ll be giving you some discounted slow-starters to consider Buying Low on before they turn it around. Players who may not be lighting up the scoreboards yet, but offer future improvements in their schedule, opportunity, or team performance that owners blinded with rage may miss, all for you to steal.
On the other hand, I’ll give you the players whose values are peaking, and that you should Sell High before their true worth reveals itself. Maybe they’ve been benefited from a few cupcakes in a row. Perhaps an absent teammate is soon returning, or the schedule is about to stiffen. Regardless, selling a player at his highest value is a crucial move to boost your team’s long-term outlook.
To get our Stock Watches, Weekly Rankings and Podcast episodes directly on your iPhone, download our brand-new app in the App Store.
Buy Low
Teddy Bridgewater
(Week 2: 7.1 points)
As I’m sure you know by now, Drew Brees will be out at least 6 weeks after injuring his thumb against the Rams. It’s a huge blow for Brees, the Saints offense, and fantasy owners alike, but not all hope is lost in this particular scenario. While Bridgewater is clearly a drop-off from Brees and didn’t look all that impressive on Sunday, he’s still widely considered one of the best backups the NFL has to offer. He had become a steady starting option in Minnesota before his gruesome leg injury prior to the 2016 season, and even in limited snaps so far with the Saints has completed just under 60% of his passes and doesn’t appear to have lost the mobility that helped make him a 1st round pick in 2014.
With Brees expected to miss at least the next 6 weeks, here are the Saints next 6 matchups leading into their Week 9 bye, along with their opponents pass defense rankings thus far in 2019.
Week 3: @ Seahawks — 26th
Week 4: vs. Cowboys — 21st
Week 5: vs. Bucs — 15th
Week 6: @ Jaguars — 19th
Week 7: @ Bears — 12th
Week 8: vs. Cardinals — 27th
While it’s early and these numbers may not tell the whole story, on the surface it’s a promising slate of games. Combine that with the weapons that Bridgewater has at his disposal and the fact that he’s now had 2 full training camps to learn the offense and will be entering these games after practicing with the 1st unit all week, and you could be looking at the perfect fantasy stopgap to keep you afloat after losing Brees or Ben Roethlisberger this week. And with Bridgewater available in 94 percent of leagues, the time to act is now.
Joe Mixon
(Week 2: 5.7 PPR points)
Yes, I’ve been watching the last 2 weeks. And no, I’m not ready to give up on Joe Mixon just yet. Last year’s AFC rushing champion has just 27 yards on 17 attempts through 2 games, but has been hurt more by lack of practice time due to an ankle injury, offensive line woes, and game flow than anything else. Mixon outsnapped teammate Gio Bernard 38-28 on Sunday and out-touched him 14-7, which indicates the team isn’t giving up and going full-blown committee just yet. He’s still the lead back, and head coach Zac Taylor has historically relied on one primary RB over the course of a season. I don’t see that changing because of a slow start.
The Wolf may not agree with me on this one, but I’m sticking by Mixon. His role in the run game is safe, his role in the passing game should continue to increase, and 3 of Cincy’s next 5 games are against teams in the bottom half of the league in run D so far in 2019. If you’ve got Mixon, be patient — and if you don’t, find out who does and see if you can steal him for a bargain before he takes off into the stratosphere.
Stefon Diggs
(Week 2: 9.9 PPR points)
Another guy I refuse to give up on just yet. Like Mixon, Stefon Diggs is dealing with an injury — his is a hamstring — that has caused him to miss practice time. This was extremely evident during Minnesota’s last game against the Packers, when Diggs was targeted 7 times but only finished with 1 catch. Now, that 1 catch was a 49-yard TD that salvaged a half-decent fantasy day from what could’ve been an absolute disaster, but the point remains that Diggs has not been himself early in 2019.
All things considered, Diggs still has brightest outlook in our Buy Low section this week. His offense as a whole is functioning pretty smoothly — although primarily on the ground with Dalvin Cook — and his upcoming schedule is pretty promising as well. This week brings the Raiders, who have allowed the 3rd-most points to opposing wideouts so far in 2019, and after a tough matchup with Chicago he’ll get the Giants, who have allowed the 4th most points to WRs thus far. Despite all these positive signs, there will be dumb, impatient Diggs owners that start taking offers for him as early as this week. Take advantage.
Honorable Mention: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Sony Michel
Sell High
Jimmy Garroppollo
(Week 2: 22.7 points)
Jimmy G looked fantastic in a rout of the Bengals in Week 2, coming up just shy of 300 yards with 3 TDs to make him the week’s QB6. He threw touchdowns to 3 different receivers and had 4 guys with over 50 receiving yards, looking in sync with his offense for the first time since his first few games in San Francisco. And all of this is exactly why some guy in your league that just lost Brees or Big Ben or is already fed up with Cam Newton will give you a decent haul for a guy you could easily replace on the waiver wire.
While Garroppollo has shown flashes of greatness in both San Francisco and New England, he’s never shown much that makes you think he can sustain it over a full season. Next week he faces a Steelers defense that’s allowed the 6th-most points to QBs this season, but has faced 2 likely Hall of Famers and just added Minkah Fitzpatrick into its secondary. After a Week 4 bye, the next 2 weeks bring Cleveland, who’ve allowed the 13th-fewest points to QBs, and the Rams (2nd-fewest). With guys like Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Andy Dalton owned in less than 50% of leagues, you might as well see what you can get for Jimmy G.
Kerryon Johnson
(Week 2: 16.8 PPR points)
The Lions made a quiet but interesting move this week, releasing CJ Anderson and signing Paul Perkins from the Giants. Some may see this as Detroit finally moving away from their committee approach and giving Kerryon Johnson the keys to the castle, but that likely isn’t the case. Perkins will presumably assume the short yardage/goal line role that Anderson was supposed to fill, and rookie Ty Johnson will see an increased workload as the likely RB2 in this offense. The 6th round pick out-snapped Anderson 13-12 in last week’s win over the Chargers and put up 30 yards on 5 carries, showing strong potential as a third down back and change of pace.
All these developments around Kerryon Johnson mean he’s a TD-dependent committee member who may never consistently surpass 15-20 touches a game. And with matchups ahead against Philly and Kansas City, who’ve allowed the 10th and 4th-fewest points to RBs respectively, now may be the perfect time to unload Kerryon to someone who thinks he’s primed for a bellcow role.
John Ross III
(Week 2: 19.2 PPR points)
Ross has had one of the more surprising starts to this young season, currently ranking 6th among WRs averaging 25 PPR points per game. He’s finally making use of the speed that caught everyone’s attention at the combine, but his fall from the top may be just as quick as he is. Tyler Boyd is continuing his progression from 2018 and will be holding down WR1 duties until AJ Green is healthy, at which point Ross will become a TD-dependent flex play at best. Andy Dalton, currently 2nd in the AFC in passing, will come back down to Earth at some point, and Ross has continued to struggle with dropping passes — he has 3 already this year and had 7 in 2018.
It will still be a few weeks before Green is back, so you may be able to get a few more usable weeks out of Ross, but it couldn’t hurt to start shopping him now.
Honorable Mention: Chris Carson, Mark Andrews, Sammy Watkins
To get our Stock Watches, Weekly Rankings and Podcast episodes directly on your iPhone, download our brand-new app in the App Store.
