Welcome back to FanDuel Picks Week 4, your weekly station providing that sweet loving sound of cash flying into your pockets. FanDuel, you keep setting it up, and I will continue knocking it down. My favorite past time of picking on the Saints defense worked like a charm again Week 3 as Matt Ryan put up 40.16 FanDuel points. But that was not the only hit. Au contraire. Alvin Kamara (26.5), Todd Gurley (22.1), Giovani Bernard (17.1), Geronimo Allison (14.6) and the Chicago Bears DST (13) all had very solid days for us as well. Ohhhhhhh RedSocker45, you are so sly! You just listed all studs that had monster games! What a neat trick! You are right, silly me. I forgot to mention I gave away free money suggesting the winning daily fantasy player in Calvin Ridley (7-146-3 TDs, good for 37 FanDuel points). So forgive me for tooting my own horn. Anyway, I feel like I say it every week, but again I like the high priced RB options, so we may have to pull a Beathard…I mean rabbit out of our hat this week (SPOILER). As a note, these picks are based on Sunday only leagues, so players on Thursday, Sunday night, and Monday night will be ignored.
Quarterbacks
- Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans ($7,600) – After struggling in New England to open the year, Deshaun Watson looks to be finding his 2017 rookie year magic after shaking off some rust. Watson has posted back-to-back 300+ yard passing games, throwing for 2 scores in each contest and averaging 24.9 FanDuel points per game. Watson can put up points with his arm and legs in a hurry and makes for a great high floor, high ceiling play in tournaments.
- C.J. Beathard, QB, San Fransisco 49ers ($6,200) – Jump in the Delorean with me for a second, and bring your Flux Capacitor and Sports Almanac, too. It was wayyyyy back in 2013 when I, as a young whipper snapper, and a fresh face to the daily fantasy sports game, boldly picked Kyle Orton to lead his team to victory. And wouldn’t you know it, 358 passing yards and 2 touchdowns later, Orton led me to the promised land, helping me finish in 1st place in an 8,000+ person FanDuel tournament. Last year as the starting quarterback of the 49ers, C.J. Beathard proved that he could make plays in the air and on the ground, twice generating over 18 FanDuel points, and once tallying over 26. There is considerable risk, but Beathard and the 49ers should be throwing all day Sunday as double digit road underdogs against a Chargers team allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back
- Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($8,200) – My number 1 FanDuel play Week 4, Ezekiel Elliott finds himself in a prime position for a monster Sunday at home against an atrocious Detroit Lions run defense. The Lions have allowed 100+ yard rushers in 2 of 3 games so far this year, with the exception being against the inept Patriot offense / rag-tag RB crew. Elliott is tied for the NFL lead in rushing yards at 274, and is averaging a monstrous 5.7 yard per carry, yet averages just 16 carries per game and has yet to top 17 in any week. With either one rushing touchdown or 125+ yards on the ground in each game this season, a 20+ touch day could see Elliott rank first in scoring among FanDuel players.
- Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons ($7,200) – The Bengals just allowed part time runner Christian McCaffrey to rumble for 184 yards on 28 carries. Imagine what Tevin Coleman can do against this same Cincinnati squad in a game with the highest projected game total at 52 points, and for a team with the highest implied team total (28.5 points).
- Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($6,400) – The Arizona Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The Seattle Seahawks just handed the ball off to Chris Carson an eye-popping 32 times, on which he recorded 102 yards and a score. Add in his dual threat as a pass catcher, and Carson’s bargain-basement price provides quite the boom potential.
- Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,400) – The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the fourth most points to opposing running backs, and over the last two weeks have allowed Alvin Kamara and McCaffrey to record 29 receptions on 35 targets for 226 yards. With Joe Mixon out, Giovani Bernard is receiving the lions share of looks in the Bengals backfield, playing 57 of 65 total snaps Week 3. His versatility in the run and pass games give him a steady floor, and he could be the focal point as a pass catcher Week 4 against a defense inept at covering elite pass catching backs.
- James White, RB, New England Patriots ($6,100) – Well, 2018 just keeps getting better and better for my beloved Patriots. New England just placed Rex Burkhead on IR with an injured neck, cutting the list of available and competent Patriot running backs to just two. And while Sony Michel profiles as the more explosive of the two remaining running backs out of the backfield, James White remains the steady handed and more consistent of the two players. With an offense bursting at the seems for a breakout game, White could play the role of Tom Brady‘s comfort blanket to help get the offense clicking.
Wide Receiver
- Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints ($9,000) – No need to overthink this, even against a solid secondary. Michael Thomas has caught a ridiculous 38 of 40 targets this year for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns. He ranks first in the NFL in receptions and yardage, and third in receiving touchdowns and targets. In a tightly contested matchup with a high over/under, Thomas again profiles as one of the best and most assured plays Sunday.
- Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears ($6,500) – This play here is like finding a diamond in the rough. Your eyes may have passed over it, but if you look close enough you can find the real treasure. With Mitchell Trubisky showing no signs of progression so far, Allen Robinson should continue to be neglected this week by FanDuelers. So what gives? Well, the Tampa Bay secondary has allowed opposing #1 wide receivers to score a touchdown in each game this season, and they have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Robinson’s volume (team leader in targets, receptions and yards, all by pretty wide margins) make him an attractive play on paper Week 4.
- Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,300) – With Keenan Allen hobbled after Week 3, Mike Williams could be in line for more targets Week 4 against an overmatched 49er defense. With at least one touchdown or 80+ receiving yards in each contest so far, Williams has given daily fantasy players a solid floor thus far, and could provide serious boom if Allen is limited.
- Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants ($6,200) – Must I repeat myself every week? This Saints defense STINKS. With Evan Engram out 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain, and the Saints intent on stopping all world wideout Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard could find plenty of open space and tons of volume Week 4 in a game with the second highest projected game total Sunday (50 points).
- Antonio Callaway, WR, Cleveland Browns ($4,500) – Although the efficiency was not there Week 3, Antonio Callaway garnered 10 targets, ranking behind just Jarvis Landry for the team lead. He also played 15 more snaps (69 to 54) than his main competitor for the #2 spot Rashard Higgins in the Browns offense. With the Oakland secondary bound to pay most of its attention to PPR machine Landry, look for Big Play Callaway to break out for a few long plays that Baker Mayfield can actually make, unlike his predecessor Tyrod Taylor. He is the steal of the week at $4,500.
Tight End
- Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots ($8,100) – The only other reliable target in the Patriots offense besides the above mentioned White, Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady have yet to REALLY get going this year, especially in the past two games where Gronk has tallied just 6 receptions for 66 yards. As we have come to know New England, when things look their bleakest the Patriots play their strongest. In a huge early division game, look for New England to bounce back with a big game Sunday on offense, with Gronk the main recipient of Brady TD passes.
- Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,600) – Tyler Eifert looked like the Eifert Tower of old, catching 6 of 8 targets for 74 yards. With A.J. Green questionable to suit up Sunday, Eifert could be the main beneficiary of his targets in the passing game. He is an absolute steal for $4,600.
Defense
- Seattle Seahawks DST ($4,400) – The 0-3 Arizona Cardinals play host to the Seattle Seahawks Week 4, and project as a 3.5 homer underdog with an implied team total just under 18 points, tied for the second lowest team total. The Cardinals average just 6.67 points per game and 190.33 total yards per game, both the lowest in the NFL by a wide margin. The Seattle Seahawks DST have recorded 8 sacks and turnovers this year, and should provide a solid floor, with the potential for much more.
- Cleveland Browns DST ($3,500) – I understand the they are road underdogs in the Black Hole this week, but hear me out. As you faithful readers know, I love punting the defensive position. And not only that, but when you have an 0-3 team struggling on offense (averaging 17.33 points per game), excuse me for not having faith in that unit. The Cleveland Browns DST looks to wreak havoc on the Raiders offense Week 4. The Browns are averaging 10.7 FanDuel points per week and have recorded 9 sacks and 11 turnovers in just three weeks. The upside is there for the low price.
And that’s a wrap for Fanduel Week 4 analysis. Remember to always look at the matchups and Vegas totals, which are always telling, and do not be afraid to admit they know more than you, because they usually do. Until next time, good luck and don’t forget to tip me 10% of your earnings. Thanks in advance.
To contact me with any questions or general fantasy football discussion, please email me at redsocker45@gmail.com or tweet me @AJGamballer.
