Coaching History

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Brief, but so promising

As mentioned, both Nagy and Helfrich are as green as possible when it comes to NFL play calling. Nagy has already announced he will be officially calling the shots, but will rely heavily on Helfrich for designing concepts and schemes in the overall game plan. 

Nagy earned play calling honors versus the Jets in Week 13 after the Chiefs attack began sputtering. The team put up 31, 26, 30, 29, and 27 points for the remainder of the regular season, and a 21 point playoff performance, that was highlighted by an epic second half collapse.

Meanwhile, Helfrich was the Oregon head coach from 2013-2016, going 37-16 over four seasons and leading Oregon to the first College Football Playoff Championship Game after the 2014 season. Helfrich's teams averaged 42.6 points per game and 536.7 yards per game, which ranked second and third among FBS schools, respectively, during that time period. Even in his disastrous 4-8 season, offense was never the issue, as the Ducks scored 35.4 points per game. An abysmal defense that allowed 41.4 PPG (126th of 128 teams) ultimately led to his firing. To learn more about what Helfrich will bring to the NFL, you need to hear our interview with FishDuck.com's Charles Fischer, aka "The Godfather" of Oregon Football.

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Early this offseason, Nagy summarized his offense with the following line:

"Overall, we’re going to be much more aggressive than we are conservative."

After slugging through years of John Fox's insultingly conservate offense, Bears and fantasy fans alike can rejoice with Nagy's desire to attack:

“It’s going to mean the pace of play,” Nagy said. “It’s going to mean downfield throws. We’re going to always attack you downfield.”

This is where Nagy really adds his own spice to his Andy Reid "West Coast" upbringing. In general, West Coast offenses stretch defenses horizontally via a quick-strike passing attack that features plenty of ins and outs. The goal is to minimize the risk, get the ball in your play-makers hands, and let them do their thing. Contrastingly, Nagy's "West Coast" offense will bring far more vertical flair  -- as detailed in this excellent PFF Breakdown, the normally conservative Alex Smith's 1,344 deep passing yards led the NFL in his first year with Nagy.

Additionally, whereas most West Coach attacks are slow and methodical, early signs point to an aggressive, fast-paced attack. In particular, OC Mark Helfrich hails from the rapid fire, frantic spread attack of Oregon that was made famous under Chip Kelly.  Despite a different base formation, Helfrich's overall philosophy featured many similarities:  Tons of quick strikes. Allowing playmakers to get in space and rack up YAC. Heavy usage of the running backs in the passing game.

Both Nagy and Helfrich also specialize in moving players all over the place to create mismatches, and capitalizing on versatility.  “Offensively, to have a bunch of different guys that can do different things is important,” Nagy said.

Specifically, two "chess pieces" Nagy will incorporate are the "U" move tight end (Travis Kelce) and the "Zebra" WR (Tyreek Hill). Nagy loves guys with speed who can find mismatches against linebackers, ill-fitting nickel-corners, or too slow of safeties. As we dive into later, he has plenty of intriguing options to fill these roles in Chicago (hello, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel, and Tarik Cohen).

With a severely limited sample size, projecting the exact scheme and shakeout here is near impossible. Still, based on his early comments and brief history, we should expect a creative, aggressive, and high-variety attack that keeps defenses reeling. Don't expect just an aerial bomb-show, however. Nagy fully understands the importance of a balanced attack and strong run-game. As detailed by former Chiefs coach and longtime NFL OC Brad Childress, who worked side-by-side with Nagy and expressed tremendous respect for the new HC:

“I thought he was excellent as a playcaller...I thought he was able to put together the openers -- the first 15 plays each game -- and keep teams off balance. He’s not conservative. He’s a guy that understands that you have to be able to throw the football in the National Football League, but still has a great appreciation for the run. You got to be able to run it when everyone knows you are going to run it."

In short, Nagy truly brings the ingenuity and aggressiveness to become 2018's Sean McVay. Similarly, Nagy's been groomed under one of the game's brightest minds in Reid, yet is ready to add his own vertical flair to the "West Coast" scheme. As Nagy puts it:

"It will be different in some regards, which is only fair to our coaches on offense and the ideas they have. But the identity is going to be the same. It will feel very similar to Kansas City's. We're in the lab now. That's the fun part. All the coaches are giving their ideas and thoughts. Coach [Andy Reid] always said he had 51 percent of the say. So ultimately, he had final say. Now I have that. There are plays I liked that Coach [Reid] didn't like, so now those plays are in."

After a complete (and necessary) offensive overhaul, the Bears vacated over 200 targets and 2,000 air yards. And that's from a John Fox "attack."

Thankfully for us fantasy owners, the Bears now sport some intriguing talent to feast upon this aerial pie. It's clear that GM Ryan Pace made it a point to attempt to replicate many of Nagy's pieces from Kansas City, into Chicago, while adding new dimensions too.

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That fresh element? Allen Robinson. He's the big name who should bring the most fantasy value. Most acknowledge Robinson's ability to frame up defenders, and break through tackles, with his 6'2", 220 lb size. This is perfect for a "West Coast" system, meant to generate high-percentage, YAC opportunities on horizontal-based routes.  

Yet, few also recognize Robinson's ability to go deep. Even with slower “timed” speed, Robinson uses long strides to get downfield in a hurry, playing faster than his 4.6 forty suggests. In fact, in 2015, Robinson led the NFL with his 19 catches for 672 yards on passes that were thrown over 20 yards.

Have we drilled home Nagy's love for pushing the ball deep quite yet? 

The risk is of course real - Robinson's now two season's removed from usefulness, and is fresh off a major ACL injury (though already practicing and expected to be ready for training camp). Still, Robinson notched 1,400 yards and 14 TDs with Blake Bortles under center in that season. Trubisky's arm, and Nagy's offense, offers far more upside. 

Beyond his own health, though, Robinson is contending for targets with a suddenly deep cast of weapons. 

For one, Taylor Gabriel can flatout fly. He's reportedly been impressing mightily in OTAs, earning the nickname "Turbo" from his WRs coach Mike Furrey, who raved, "He can run. He sure can run.”

Nagy also hinted at Gabriel's potential role, and it's beyond just "go."

"He's able to do a lot of things we’ve done in the past, with jet motions and quick screens and some of the (run-pass option) stuff,” Nagy said.  

Still, the "aggressive" HC will undoubtedly tap into Gabriel's verticality, with the coach noting, “When you have a guy that can take the top off the defense with the safeties, again stretching the field vertically, you need that. We have that.”

Clearly, Nagy's vision is more in-line with Kyle Shanahan's usage in 2016, where he manufactured ways to shake Gabriel free and capitalize on his homerun ability -- both deep down the field, but also in the screen game. Gabriel racked up 6 TDs before a busy 171 yard postseason with proper usage, and draws plenty of Tyreek Hill parallels in terms of skillset and build. 

Coach Furrey also envisions some untapped upside with Gabriel, noting:

“Once we get closer to training camp, and once he learns our system and knows exactly what he should do and be able to apply it to what he’s done in the past … I’m really intrigued to see how far he’ll go. I don’t think he’s at his ceiling yet, and I think that’s what’s interesting.”

Even with this added weaponry, the Bears couldn't pass up on Memphis WR Anthony Miller with the 51st pick of the draft. Unsurprisingly, Nagy has only spoken glowingly about his rookie toy, :

“You want to be able to see throughout their pro days, the combine, what they put on tape — any time you can see a route that relates to what you do as an offense, you kind of tag that and say, ‘OK. Hey, there it is. I found one, Nagy said, "And so with Anthony, you see a guy that at the top of his route, he likes to stick the top of the route and it’s sharp, so what that does is it sets the angle for the quarterback."

"And you don’t see that from every wide receiver. There’s a violent move for him to be able to set angles, whether it’s a slant route, a post route, an out route, et cetera, he’s aggressive with it and I think that fits his style of play.”

Nagy may just make Miller the 2018 Cooper Kupp. The new HC has a clear vision for the role and route tree he'll ask of Miller, and early predictions have Miller "earmarked for the slot." Gabriel may blow up more often, but Miller could be the more consistent and reliable PPR product, and both are worthy Late Round Penny Stocks.

All-in-all, even if Robinson leads the team in production, he's the least likely Bears WR for me to own (unless he flat-out destroys camp). He's priced not far from his ceiling, which I think he'll have a hard time reaching surrounded by underrated weaponry and in an offense that should spread the ball to mismatches.

Nagy’s very first personnell conversation with GM Ryan Pace revolved around finding his next Travis Kelce. This is the "U," WR/TE hybrid role that the Chiefs have peppered for years.

Enter Trey Burton, who received a four-year, $32 million contract despite limited production with the Eagles. Simply put, Nagy needed him.

“It’s an important role,” Nagy said. “It’s easy to create some plays for. And when you have a guy that has the size that Trey has and the speed that he has, it’s about mismatches.”

Burton’s size can beat smaller nickel backs, while his speed can be a problem for larger players, i.e. linebackers.

“That’s one of the things that I learned through coach Reid is getting mismatches throughout, and that’s what Trey does,” Nagy said.

Speaking of mismatch size / speed, Burton is a physical freak -- with top performances at his position in the 40 (4.62), the 3-cone (7.14) and the 20-yd shuttle (4.32). He will be moved all over the place and be sent screaming down the field quite often. 

In fact, if Burton was the only real receiving threat at TE, I'd have him ranked among my Top-7 at the position. Sadly, there's another massive mouth to feed here: the 6'6", 278-lb Adam Shaheen.

Though incredibly raw, the beastly Shaheen drips in red-zone upside. In fact, on only 14 targets last season, Shaheen hauled in 3 scores. He's a classic "basketball convert," who knows how to post up and leap over defenders with his frame. Shaheen remains raw, but don't be surprised to see him score 7+ TDs, annoyingly eating into Burton's otherwise huge ceiling.

The Next Great

Power Committee 

As mentioned above, Nagy would ride a horse if he had one. Unfortunately, he inherits two highly talented, but role-specific backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Thus, a committee feels likely, but both backs possess the talent to do serious damage in a timeshare -- potentially approaching Ingram / Kamara levels of dominance if everything clicks.

Howard is likely monopolize the early down carries and red zone looks, and stands to benefit from this offense taking a step or five forward under Nagy and Helfrich. Howard should have more red zone opportunities to capitalize on, less stacked boxes to face, and overall more positive game scripts that allow him to bleed more clock.

As Charles Fisher emphasized when breaking down Helfrich, vision is absolutely essential for RB success in this scheme. This offense will feature tons of counters, sweeps, traps, and other pulling-based plays that aim to get the RB plenty of blockers in front, while creating cutback lanes should the defense overpursue. Meanwhile, Howard's calling card is his vision. He has an outstanding feel for run lane developments at the line of scrimmage and at the second level.

Howard's already cemented in Bears legend books as the only back to top 1,000 yards in his first two years, and he's now set up for the most success of his career; Howard faced 8 or more men in the box on 43.12% of his carries last season, third most in the league, and will greatly benefit from the influx of talent all around him. Expect low-end RB1 numbers at a high-end RB2 price, with a final stat line similar to his 1,200ish, 8ish TD average, with upside to hit 12+ TDs if this offense really hits its groove.

The only knock on Howard is his hands, admittedly a pretty huge one in Nagy's system where backs are peppered with looks. Sure, Howard is again "working on his receiving," but ultimately expect him to monopolize the early down role only. 

Which opens the door for Tarik Cohen to absolutely explode.

Cohen drips in explosiveness and huge play ability -- in fact, over 50% of Cohen's runs went for 15+ yards, making him PFF's top "Breakaway Threat" from 2017. His nickname is "The Human Joystick," after all. 

Yet, despite these playmaking flashes almost every time he touched the ball, Cohen remained criminally underutilized by John Fox and co. Expect the exact opposite under Nagy, who's "giddy" about all the ways he can maximize Cohen's explosiveness and versatility. 

As the Chicago Sun Times detailed, Cohen's 2018 usage could be so extensive and creative that he "arguably is busier learning coach Matt Nagy’s offense than anybody except quarterback Mitch Trubisky."

The sophomore back has reportedly been "all over the field — running inside and outside, coming out of the backfield on pass plays, pass-protecting and lining up as a wide receiver."

QB Mitch Trubisky has taken notice, saying, “It’s a great thing that he has a lot to learn because that means we’re trying to get him the ball in so many different ways in this offense...Tarik’s a really smart player; that’s the great thing about him."

‘‘Not only is he dynamic with the ball, but he understands the offense and knows how to open up his other teammates, whether it’s just doing his job or making a block or running a specific route without the ball.

But we all know what he can do with the ball in his hands, and for him to be a smart player who understands the offense, we can pretty much line him up at any position."

Cohen perfectly fits the "Reid" mold as an elite receiver with underrated power up the middle ala Jamaal Charles and Brian Westbrook.  Nagy has already praised his route-running, stating:

“You may look like you can run routes, but can you really run routes? He’s able to run routes... Sometimes that can be a disadvantage to a defense because they’ve got to cover him all over the field. You can’t just put him in the backfield and say to the middle linebacker, ‘Cover him.’ So we’ll try to do some things there. He’s an athletic kid who does a lot of things well. We’ll have some fun with him.”

Cohen himself is ecstatic with the increased usage and coaching creativity, noting, "I feel like I fit very well into the offense. I’m doing a little bit of everything — outside receiver, in the slot and at running back as well as special teams. I feel like this is the offense for me.”

At minimum, Cohen could pile on at least 20 more receptions to his 2017 total of 53. There's a fair chance he emerges as an 10-15 carry guy, given he makes this offense far less predictable. Finally free from Fox's shackles, and now under the perfect coach to capitalize on his skillset, Cohen's 77th ADP is going to look foolish come the end of 2018. 

Making "locked-in" conclusions about Nagy on a limited sample size would be foolish. Even so, the Bears seem destined for some major steps forward under Nagy's aggressive, "Vertical West Coast" scheme combined with the frenetic-pacing and spread philosophies of Oregon's Helfrich. Both coaches excel at maximizing their talents and creating mismatches with unique motions and formations, and the Bears suddenly have plenty to work with following a busy 2018 offseason.

For one, Mitch Trubisky should have far more chances to show off his powerful but accurate arm, and could truly be 2018's Carson Wentz (or at least Jared Goff) now that he has the weaponry around him. His under-appreciated athleticism will also be maximized, with "Zone-Read," RPOs, and plenty of rollouts being called.

Meanwhile, Reid's offense historically ticks with the RBs, making Jordan Howard an intriguing third rounder while sending Tarik Cohen's stock soaring.  Howard, who'll monopolize early down and goalline touches, naturally rises with less stacked boxes and more scoring opportunities. Yet, Cohen is the true explosion and value candidate. His versatility and explosiveness will no longer be criminally underutilized, but instead maximized under Nagy. Expect Cohen to explode more often than not.

Additionally, the additions of Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton and Anthony Miller creates oozing fantasy potential. Though Robinson will likely lead the team in receiving, he's also priced around his ceiling right now. Nagy's attack is predicated on exposing mismatches, and Robinson isn't likely to see the true target-hog numbers many expect. Rather, I'll be chasing the explosive upside of Gabriel and Miller going at least 10+ rounds later. Meanwhile, Burton should thrive in the Travis Kelce "U" Tight End role, although his ceiling is ultimately capped with the monstrous Adam Shaheen likely to eat into his TD total and overall red zone usage. Still, the high passing volume and Nagy's vertical tendencies should put this offense, and especially Trubisky on your fantasy map.

Sure, this may all seem hyperbolic, but similarly built teams have taken quantum leaps forward under the right guidance -- just look at the Rams, who went literally worst to first in scoring (2016 to 2017) thanks to a bright young coach, infusion of new talent, and the consequent steps forward from their QB. In Chicago, the line is already strong (11th graded by PFF in 2017, despite losing Kyle Long), the defense is underrated, and after the weapons overhaul, the Bears have the makings of a genuine explosion with Nagy steering the ship. Given their lackluster 2017, expect some insane investing opportunities for fantasy owners -- especially Trubisky and Cohen.