II. Running Backs
Minimum guaranteed Long Term Options exist this week for RBs — check if Orleans Darkwa (NYG, 63%) was oddly dropped and not picked up during his Bye week. He ran hard and has some CAKE matchups during this stretch one. Still, a few names exist:
A) Long Term Options
1) Danny Woodhead (RB-BAL, 27%)
FAAB: $12
Schedule Analysis: 12th Easiest among RBs
Breakdown:
Last call on Danny Woodhead folks. We’ve been mentioning him for four straight weeks now, but the time has come for Woody to be close to universally owned. He’s back to practice, and expected to make his triumphant return in Week 11 following the team’s bye.
Look, I understand Javorious Allen has been a more-than-adequate fill in. But he simply doesn’t bring Woodhead’s skill to the table, and this has been a product of the volume the diminutive dynamo is about to inherit. In his lone drive this season, Woodhead hauled in 3-of-3 targets for 31 yards. He was the focal point of this offensive attack, which wasn’t a surprise as the Ravens trailed only the Saints in RB Targets in 2016. Allen has since ridden this role to RB2 value, but Woodhead could potentially do even more.
Injury is an obvious risk. Perhaps the team keeps Allen involved after his admirable fill-ins. Still, Woodhead can do far more if healthy, and I expect him to receive the lion’s share of RB receiving work moving forward. Consider him PPR gold for stretch runs, and hoard it while you still can.
2) Damien Williams (RB – MIA, 33%)
FAAB: $12
Schedule Analysis: 19th easiest among RBs
Breakdown:
This backfield unfolded almost exactly as expected: Kenyan Drake was the more featured runner, logged the most snaps (37), and tallied the most total production (104), but Damien Williams wasn’t far behind. He logged 30 snaps, and filled his expected third down role very well, hauling in 6-of-6 targets while racking up 61 total yards.
Additionally, Williams saw much of the red zone action, even hauling in a TD where he broke numerous tackles for one of Week 9’s most impressive scores. In this light, consider him a “Buck Allen” type, where Williams won’t see the majority of carries, but has a solid pulse on the team’s most valuable touches.
This line still sucks, and the overall offense could combust at any moment. Still, the post-Ajayi backfield looked more promising than I could have imagined, making both backs usable for fantasy owners.
Streamers (with sneaky long term appeal):
1) Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA, 13%)
FAAB: $8
Stat Line:
Schedule Analysis: 8th Easiest among RBs
Breakdown
As expected, Eddie Lacy‘s body once again caved under 270 lbs of Crab Rangoon. This thrust Rawls into the starting spotlight, and he ripped off arguably the most impressive SEA RB outing yet. Granted, that’s the lowest possible bar — he only totaled 70 yards (39 rushing), and added two receptions for 8 FPs (.5 PPR). Woo!
Still, with numerous Week 10 RB Byes, Rawls and his 12-15 guaranteed touches cannot be taken for granted. Week 9 was the closest Rawls has looked to his previously dynamite self, so maybe he’s about to find his groove and rip some massive plays. The offense is obviously churning, and lanes were far wider with Duane Brown‘s enormous addition at LT. There’s some sneaky upside to go with his streamability, making Rawls a priority add of Week 10.
2) Devontae Booker (RB – DEN, 4%)
FAAB: $3
Stat Line:
Schedule Analysis: 5th Easiest Among RBs:
Breakdown:
Booker logged just one fewer snap and touch than “starter” CJ Anderson in Week 9, and has now seen at least 8 touches in back-to-back weeks. This is almost dead-even with Anderson’s work, and it’s not out of the question the pendulum switches to favor Booker, especially with Anderson banged up and largely ineffective.
At minimum, Booker has scored double digit FPs (1/2 PPR) in 2 of the past 4 weeks since the Bye, and could do so yet again against the 5th easiest Patriots. New England has gotten destroyed via pass-catching backs, and Booker has surprisingly taken this role over from Jamaal Charles.
C) Hail Mary Homerun Stashes
Rod Smith (RB – DAL, 8%)
Here’s my top RB pickup if I’m not in need of an immediate starter, and quite possibly the highest upside guy on this list, regardless of position. Buried amidst Ezekiel Elliott‘s surprise start was the positive steam Rod Smith had been gaining last week.
As a quick refresher: Smith was named No.2 on the official depth chart, behind Alfred Morris but ahead of Darren McFadden. Additionally, Jason Garrett has said this is a fluid situation and all three backs will play, which might initially sound nightmarish but also means Smith has a real shot at separating here.
Which I think he will. Smith’s by far my favorite talent — he runs like a bulldozer, yet also has soft hands. He’s the closest this team has to Zeke, and I believe he could emerge as the go-to and become a fantasy football Haily Mary of epic proportions. It certainly doesn’t hurt his RB coach feels the same way:
What RB coach Gary Brown told me about Rod Smith today:
“Rod, I think, is gonna surprise a lot of people bc I think he can be a 3-down guy"— Jane Slater (@SlaterNFL) November 2, 2017
Let everyone else go after the bigger names. Sneak in Rod for cheap, and ride him to a title once he takes over the featured back role for good.
Others:
- Amidst all the Jay Ajayi vs. LeGarrette Blount debating, it was Corey Clement playing the goal line hammer role. Shockingly, Clement powered in for three (3?!) TDs against the vaunted Broncos run defense Sunday. Though his usage is impossible to project, Clement would sustain some very usable value even if only in a “TD hammer” role. This offense resides in the red zone, and the scoring chances should be plentiful for Clement moving forward. I just want to know he has that role 100% on lock before throwing much $$ down.
- Your weekly reminder that D’Onta Foreman has RB1 upside if anything were to happen to Lamar Miller. This is especially true with Houston’s embarrassingly easy run schedule, even if Tom Savage is going to sap this offense of some playmaking.
- Cuffing season is fast approaching. James Conner, Charcandrick West, and Chris Ivory are among the widely available guys with RB1 upside if the starter misses time. Someone who’s widely ignored but carries similar potential? Rams RB Malcolm Brown.
III. Wide Receivers
A) Long Term Options:
1) Marquise Lee (WR – JAX, 37%)
FAAB: $25
Stat Line:
Schedule analysis: 5th easiest among WRs
Breakdown:
In terms of immediate usability and long term upside, Lee is this week’s top option by far. He has emerged as the clear No.1 option in Jacksonville, topping 70 yards in three straight, including 10, 6, and 12 target days among those. Even in a run-heavy attack, that type of usage is highly worthwhile.
Especially when it comes attached to a completely juicy schedule. None of the remaining matchups appear threatening, while many increase blood flow downstairs. Lee should be in line for more high-end WR2 performances, and can be tossed out as a weekly WR3 / Flex from here on out.
2) Robert Woods (WR – LAR, 34%)
FAAB: $10
Stat Line:
Schedule Analysis: 12th Easiest among WRs
Breakdown
Woods already lead the Rams in targets, receptions, and yardage, so the TDs were just an added bonus. Though owners shouldn’t expect the high scoring rate to continue, the fact his ceiling exists with his already sturdy floor makes Woods much more attractive week-to-week.
Though he belongs on the bench in tough matchups, only Minnesota appears truly threatening. Woods will have every opportunity to continue his sturdy WR3 output for the remainder of 2017. This is especially true with Jared Goff clicking like never before in Sean McVay‘s explosive attack.
Honorable Mention(s):
Marquise Goodwin (WR – SF, 12%)
FAAB: $5
Schedule Analysis: 20th easiest among WRs
Breakdown:
The de facto No.1 target, Goodwin saw 8 looks come his way but could only haul in two of them. In line with the speedsters game, one reception was a 55 yard bomb, and Goodwin’s ceiling remains sky high with a big play arsenal. Of course, the floor is also quite low, as Goodwin isn’t a particularly great or well-rounded WR. He also doesn’t have all-too-many inviting matchups, but the increased volume share has Goodwin firmly on the flex / streaming radar. This is especially true if Jimmy Garoppolo makes any starts in 2017.
B) Streamers
- Terrance Williams (WR – DAL, 10%) is coming off what will assuredly remain a season high 9 targets, 9 catches, and 141 yards. Even if unrepeatable, Williams may be thrust into the No.1 role if Dez Bryant’s ankle injury keeps him sidelined. Atlanta’s secondary has been tough, but Williams should yield some WR3 production, at minimum, with that type of usage from an exploding Dak Prescott.
- For the truly desperate (and insane), Tavarres King (WR – NYG, 0%) is coming off his first score of 2017. San Francisco is horrendous, meaning King has a solid shot at a repeat. He was the clear top-outside threat, though that also is, at best, the third weapon being Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Play at your own peril
- Could Chris Godwin (WR – TB, 0%) become a thing if Mike Evans were to miss time? His head coach has likened him to Roddy White, and Godwin drew rave reviews all summer. I could see him surprising as a complete Hail Mary.
C) Hail Mary Homerun Stashes
1) Dede Westbrook (WR – JAX, 28%)
Though the aforementioned Lee represents the floor WR play in Jacksonville, Mr. Dede represents the ceiling. Westbrook led the NFL in preseason receiving, and was regarded as the best college WR by plenty of scouts.
Westbrook has great ball tracking skills, in addition to being extremely dangerous after the catch. This makes him a genuine threat to score every time he touches the rock. If you’re in the basement and want a guy who could explode you out, Westbrook is among the highest upside stashes for the remainder of 2017.
2) Josh Gordon (WR – CLE, 30%)
Gordon might not touch the field in 2017. Even if he does, who knows what type of product he’ll be — it’s been three years since Gordon put anything of quality on tape.
But the upside will always be monumental after he led the league in receiving in only 14 games, strictly on his ability. Gordon openly admitted to drinking and smoking before games, so imagine what a clear-headed and truly motivated / humbled Gordon might be able to produce on Sundays. He won’t be eligible until the 27th at the earliest, but Gordon is definitely worth a “wait-and-see” if you have the bench space.
3) Josh Doctson (WR – WAS, 28%)
Oh this is a WR stash section? Insert obligatory “Josh Doctson has all the physical tools to be a WR1. The team wants him to succeed” comments. Sarcasm aside, Doctson is a genuine athletic freak, and seems to be increasingly refining his game each week. The schedule is neither brutal nor cakeish, meaning Doctson has some work cut out for him. The upside may just be some never ending mirage, but any roster with spare bench space should consider Doctson.
Other Names:
- Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR, 9%)
- Travis Benjamin (WR – LAC, 17%)
Finish up with Tight Ends and our Top-20 Waiver Wire Big Board
