Doug Martin is the knockout you take home from the bar. The entire time you are wondering how someone who looks like her, went home with someone who looks like you. Once you get her home, after you stopped to get her something to eat, but well before you’ve even seen her tits, she throws up all over your bed and your night is over.
So sure, you took a dime home, but the closest you got to being inside of her was having to clean up her vomit – that’s Doug Martin. You’ll be super excited about him right up until the moment you expect him to perform. And then right when you’re ready to move on, she’ll text you –Dougie Fresh will put up a game – and every fiber of your being says don’t respond, DO NOT RESPOND – cut him now – but of course you respond – not only did you not cut him, but you started him – because she’s gorgeous – he’s a “top tier RB” – and that’s what you do with knockouts – and top tier RBs- you respond to them – you start them – and pray that you actually get lucky.
In just four years, Martin has gone from rookie with potential, to must start, to complete bust and now back to must start. Before the 2015 season, he was the 39th ranked RB (ESPN Standard). He finished 2015 as the #3 highest scoring RB (ESPN Standard), but just like his “insane” 2012 rookie campaign, 2015 was a handful of stud performances overshadowing a season full of absolutely horrific production.
Start with 2012 – Martin finished the year with 1,454 rushing yards and 11 TDs – 794 (54.6%) of those yards and 7 (63.6%) of those TDs came in just five games, including his signature 251 yard, 4 TD game in Oakland. In his other eleven games, he went for 660 yards and 4 TDs. In eight of those eleven games, he failed to break 75 rushing yards, and in five of those eight games he couldn’t manage even 60 yards on the ground.
Now 2015 – more of the same. The Muscle Hamster (is the worst nickname in sports) finished with 1,402 rushing yards and 6 TDs – 600 (42.8%) of those yards and 3 (50%) of those TDs came in a combined four games – the only four games where Martin broke the century mark. This time he had seven games under 75 yards rushing, five of which he couldn’t pile up even 55 yards on the ground.
This guy is the epitome of BOOM OR BUST, but unfortunately he busts way more than he booms and that spells fantasy doom for anybody relying on him as RB1. He’s currently slotted as the #12 RB with ADP of 25 – putting him end of the 2nd, beginning of the 3rd round – right in front of guys like Thomas Rawls, CJ Anderson, DeMarco Murray, Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, and Jeremy Hill –all of whom you should be targeting in front of Doug Martin.
Don’t be confused, if you can grab Martin for your flex, or even better as part of a flex platoon, that’s outstanding value. Make sure to play the match-ups – outside of his 106 yards/1 TD he hung on the Panthers last season – he predictably only eats well against poor defenses.
I know SO many things happen during the draft, circumstances and game plans can change pick to pick, but just refer to the following before pulling the trigger on Doug Martin:
Flex Option: Outstanding value, do it!
RB2: Solid value, make sure the RBs listed above are gone first though, please and thank you
RB1: Go kill yourself because I fucking told you and you didn’t listen. I hope that 2 am smokeshow strings you along for months and leaves you with nothing other an empty bank account and blue balls