Leaves change. Greens fade. Patterns emerge. Sunlight wanes.
Nostalgia for the summer when everyone knew what was going to happen and hot takes were met with proper scorn fills the air. Wait, no, that’s just an apple. THE REAL FRUIT OF FALL!
Three weeks of football is still a small data sample, but expectations and projections are starting to get stickier.
Another week of boiling in the pot of hot water will have that fantasy spaghetti ready to eat.
Managers starting 0-2 feel just terrible, but they see a clear path to recovery. However, an 0-3 start?
The mists start to swirl, and fantasy managers pray to Kelsier and Vin to protect their fantasy teams while they embrace the meaning of fall. It’s time to make a change.
Trades need to be made, waivers need to be pillaged, and wins need to be stacked.
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for profit and to strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide you on when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
But remember, the spreadsheets are dark and full of terror.
Let’s go!
WEEK 4 BUY-LOW SELL-HIGH TRADE TARGETS
WEEK 4 BUY-LOW TRADE TARGETS
JORDAN LOVE, QB, GREEN BAY PACKERS
The offense is having to do exactly what we expected through three weeks.
Love is currently second in the league in pass attempts (124), behind only Tyler Shough.
With the situation surrounding Josh Jacobs growing murkier and the defense continuing to struggle, Love is going to have to continue chucking it around the yard.
Love has not had a season with a touchdown rate worse than 5.2% as a full-time starter, not counting his 2022 season, in which he only played four games, and he currently is hovering around 4.8%.
Very few quarterbacks possess the type of volume and emerging young pass weapons that the Packers have.
Christian Watson has looked like a league winner, though we’re monitoring his hamstring situation.
Matthew Golden is looking like he’s on the verge of a major breakout.
The ground game is putrid, to say the least, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. Love is a strong bet to be a solid QB1 moving forward.
BHAYSHUL TUTEN, RB, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I may be the last horse to cross the finish line, but I am in on Tuten. I was skeptical. The role worried me, the opportunity was concerning, and the vision was a major red flag in college and as a rookie.
The takeover is complete.
Tuten has commanded at least 59% of the backfield’s available xFP in three straight weeks.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. was handed a golden opportunity to force a committee and carve out a solid role. He’s flushed it down the toilet, averaging an anemic 3.6 yards per carry while Tuten is ripping off 4.7 per tote.
The narrative against Tuten was that CRod would take away goal-line carries and would be more of a force after contact.
Through three games, Tuten has registered 2.19 yards before contact and 2.56 after contact per attempt vs. Rodriguez’s 1.50 and 2.15, respectively.
Tuten’s forcing a missed tackle on 23% of his rushes while ripping off an explosive run (10+ yards) 14.6% of the time.
Rodriguez has yet to register an explosive run.
His role, thus far, has been worth only 12.3 xFP/g (RB21), and he’s currently the RB17 in ppg (13.7).
The signs are there for a breakout. Go buy him before you get burned by him.
JAYLEN WARREN, RB, PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Another potential league-winner has emerged. Right?
Rico Dowdle was out Week 3, and Warren roasted as a result.
If you had told me Warren would be averaging 5.7 YPC through three games, with nearly 50% of his yards coming after contact, I would have told you Dowdle was the clear workhorse, and Warren was not a factor.
Warren has been fantastic! He’s forced a missed tackle on 34% of his rushes and has averaged 2.4 FPOE (11.5 xFP).
In Week 3, Warren had an 80-yard touchdown wiped away by a penalty.
His prowess as a pass-catcher has always been evident. He’s got the love of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
“I love the term ‘bell cow.’ That’s right out of the Mike McCarthy Bingo tablet. I was told yesterday, don’t throw Jaylen the ball in practice. I said, why? He’s got a shoulder. I was, like, okay, fine. What a tough guy. I’ve always had respect for him, played against him and then being his teammate now for a little more than a season. He is one of the toughest guys I’ve ever played with. Just can’t say enough about his energy and the way he runs the football and the way he cares about his teammates. Glad he’s on our team,” Rodgers said of Warren on Sunday.
Dowdle will be a factor when he returns from injury. But Warren has maximized the opportunity given to him and has earned a heavy role going forward.
Some might argue Dowdle’s return makes him a sell-high. I say pay homage to N’Sync and BUY! BUY! BUY!
Other players to buy: Josh Downs (IND), Malik Washington (MIA)
WEEK 4 SELL-HIGH TRADE TARGETS
MALIK NABERS, WR, NEW YORK GIANTS
Jameis Winston stinks. When the team goes and trades for JJ McCarthy while starter Jaxson Dart is out for the year, that’s pretty condemning.
This is not an indictment of Nabers. There are only a few who could call themselves more talented than Nabers, and it’s still a debate.
This season has not been what he expected.
He’s caught 12 passes for 96 yards through three games, including six passes for 27 yards in his previous two games.
This isn’t the happy-go-lucky “he’s down there somewhere… YEET!” Winston anymore.
There’s no sign the Giants are looking to back off of Winston as their starter.
Recently, head coach John Harbaugh said he is looking to stick with him as long as he can.
“Jameis will be starter for as long as I can see into the future,” Harbaugh said, even with J.J. McCarthy now in the QB room.
He continued by giving Winston an endorsement as the starter moving forward.
“He’s our starting quarterback, and that’s why we’re rolling. We’ll be ready to play this game. Excited about Jameis. I think Jameis did all the things as a quarterback to win that game. But that doesn’t mean that’s where we stand.”
Harbaugh continued, saying Winston won’t always have to play on a short week or in a Nor’Easter.
While the weather concerns are fair, Winston’s willingness to take chances doesn’t appear to be there any longer.
Despite being banged up and recovering from a nasty knee injury last season, Nabers is still the clear alpha on the team.
Unless Winston finds his groove with the Giants, Nabers will continue to be a roster hole.
To quote Dr. Gregory House: “Climb out of your holes, people!”
Sell! Sell! Sell!
AARON JONES, RB, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Jones has stepped into a near-bellcow role with Jordan Mason on IR with an injured thumb.
With a looming favorable matchup against the Dolphins this week, Jones’ value can be artificially inflated even more.
Volume has been Jones’ saving grace.
In 2026, he’s produced -20.1 rush yards over expectation, and only 5.9% of his rush attempts this season have gone for 10 or more yards.
Meanwhile, albeit a smaller sample size, Mason has looked like the more preferred runner, with a 7.7% explosive run rate.
At age 31, this is not unexpected for Jones, who has experienced a steady decline in rushing efficiency.
On the season, Jones’ boosted role has been worth 12.8 xFP/g (-1.2 FPOE on the season), which is middling RB2 value.
The Vikings announced on Tuesday that they were signing free agent RB Devin Neal, as head coach Kevin O’Connell is likely looking to lessen the load on Jones while waiting for Mason to return.
With a possible Week 7 return, it’s very clear to see the clock is ticking on Jones’ increased fantasy production.
Sell high while you can!
Other players to sell: Justin Herbert (LAC), Ollie Gordon (MIA)
