The 2026 Super Bowl is over. My beloved Patriots forgot to get off the bus, and the only way I know how to cope? Think about 2026 Fantasy Football.
Specifically, Round One of 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts. Who should be the Top 12 picks?
Yes, I am sick and demented (I already have Updated my 2026 Fantasy Football Top-150 Big Board five times for Christ’s sake). Indeed, there will be some massive swings and changes in the 2026 Fantasy Rankings, including Round 1.
As the old saying goes: you won’t win your fantasy football league in the first round, but you sure could lose it. Which name will you call on as your 2026 fantasy football anchor? Who should you draft in Round 1 of your 2026 Fantasy Football Draft?
Without further adieu, here are my Top 12 Picks for 2026 Fantasy Football…. in February.
The Top 12: Round 1 of 2026 Fantasy Football
Tier 1: 2026 Fantasy Football Gods & Season-Changers
In my opinion, four players warrant consideration for the Number One overall spot in 2026 Fantasy Football. These are the guys who almost-always get you Top-12 production on a weekly basis, while also offering the ceiling to single-handedly win your week.
Ultimately, I expect these 4 guys to consistently be on 60-70% of Playoff Rosters as the True 2026 Fantasy Football Gods.
1. Bijan Robinson (ATL-RB)
Bijan Robinson has been nothing short of elite since joining the league.
Yse, Arthur Smith‘s mind-boggling usage led to a “disappointing” RB8 finish during Robinson’s rookie year. Since Smith’s departure, Robinson has finished as the PPR RB3 (2024) & RB2 (2025) while totaling 342 & 377 FPs respectively.
Robinson has epitomized consistency in this span, too. Over his last 29 games, Bijan Robinson has finished as a Top-12 RB a whopping 22 times (76%).
Yes, Robinson’s volume was elite in 2026. Among RBs, he ranked:
- 2nd in targets (102)
- 5th in carries (287)
- 2nd in opportunities (389)
- 2nd in routes (406)
- 3rd in snaps (1048) and 3rd in snap share (78.3%)
- 2nd in Expected Fantasy Points (317.5)
Yet, it’s the insane talent and efficiency that make Bijan truly special.
All you had to do was turn on a Falcons’ game to see Robinson pop. He passes every “eye test” imaginable.
Still, it’s nice when the stats back that up, and Bijan’s efficiency was off the charts last season. Per FantasyPoints’ Data Suite, Robinson ranked:
- 1st in yards per touch (6.3)
- 1st in yards per route run (2.02)
- 1st in missed tackles forced (75 total)
- 1st in yards after contact (877)
- 1st in yards after contact per attempt (3.06)
- 5th in yardage on explosive runs (472)
- 4th in total explosive runs (16)
- 5th in FPs over expectation (+61.8 FPs)
- 2nd in FPPG (22.2)
Robinson’s gains in explosive runs are particularly noteworthy. In 2024, Robinson ranked just 18th in explosive yards with 252 — behind luminaries like Jerome Ford and Najee Harris. His longest run on the season was 37 yards, and he produced just five 20+ yard rushes on the year.
Consequently, gaining explosivity was the focus of Bijan’s offseason. The results? Astounding.
Robinson nearly doubled his explosive yards (472), 20+ yard runs (8), and recorded two 50+ yard runs, trailing only Jonathan Taylor (3) and TreVeyon Henderson (4). Robinson’s 93 yard rushing TD was the longest recorded by a RB all season.
In short, Bijan presents a crystal clear picture of Individual Talent + Usage + enough Surrounding Talent to be a fantasy goldmine.
Yet, the scariest part of this all? Robinson hasn’t even sniffed his TD ceiling yet. Robinson’s 7 rushing TDs last year ranked just 20th in the NFL, behind Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Kareem Hunt, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and even his own teammate Tyler Allgeier last season.
Among running backs with 50+ carries, Robinson tied with Allgeier for 26th in the league with 43.5% of his team’s inside-the-five carries.
Granted, Allgeier could return and make this a moot point. Even in that case, Robinson is still likely my 1.01, although some of the elite pass-catchers might leap him in PPR Formats.
Yet, if Allgeier departs and Robinson can hit the 15+ TDs from his sophomore season, while maintaining his explosivity from 2025… we might have a season for the Fantasy Record Books.
UPDATE 1/24 – Kevin Stefanski Hired as HC, sneaky massive W for Bijan:
2. Puka Nacua (LAR – WR)
Puka Nacua has been a revelation through three seasons.
As a fifth-round rookie, he set the NFL record for rookie receptions (105), receiving yards (1486), along with single-game rookie records for catches (15) & targets (20) in a game, as well as single-game playoff yardage for a rookie (182 yards).
As a sophomore, Nacua had an absurd 38.7% target rate (WR1) & averaged an absolutely-insane 3.61 Yards Per Route Run (WR1). He was the picture-perfect combination of insane production and volume, and ultimately trailed only Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin in FPPG (18.8).
Granted, I had concerns for Puka’s fantasy value entering his third season. First, Matthew Stafford was entering cryo chambers for a back injury that reportedly wasn’t healing. That, clearly, turned out to be nonsense.
Additionally, I was concerned about Davante Adams‘ target-hogging ways, especially in the end zone. That concern proved (somewhat) valid, as Adams led the NFL with 27 End Zone targets and 14 End Zone TDs despite missing 3 contests.
Even still, Nacua finished with a career-high 10 TDs, while also leading the NFL in receptions (129!) and ranking 2nd in receiving yards (1715). Puka remained his insanely efficient self, ranking 1st in yards per route run (3.79), and Nacua again commanded volume more than anyone else with a 36.6% target rate (1st).
If you’re keeping up, that means Nacau has led the NFL in yards per route and target rate in back-to-back seasons. Nacua’s target rate & yards per-route run since entering the league:
- 2023: 28.7% target rate (6th), 2.68 YPRR (7th)
- 2024: 38.7% target rate (1st), 3.61 YPRR (1st)
- 2025: 36.6% target rate (1st), 3.79 YPRR (1st).
Nacua has ridden this volume and efficiency to WR6, WR3, and WR1 finishes in FPPG the past 3 seasons. He’s been incredibly consistent on a week-to-week basis, too. Nacua has finished as a Top-12 WR in 52% of his career games. He has only finished outside the Top-24 WRs in 3 total games, and two of those were for injuries.
Last season, Nacua finished inside the Top-12 in 62% of games. He was a Top-24 WR and hit 13+ PPR FPs in all but one game, which he left due to injury. Per RotoViz:
As long as Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay remain in place, there’s little reason to expect anything less than:
- 35%+ target rate
- 3.2+ yard per route run
- Elite weekly floor & ceiling combo
- Top-3 overall Fantasy Finish
If you need any more reason to believe in Nacua as THE WR1 in 2026, he was on 29.1% of ESPN Fantasy Championship Rosters. Yes, just having Nacua gave you a near 1-in-3 shot at a fantasy title last year!
3. Ja’Marr Chase (CIN-WR)
It’s insane that Ja’Marr Chase just led the NFL in targets (186!), trailed only Puka in catches (125), finished as the PPR WR3 in FPPG (19.7)… and yet, his 2025 still feels…. mildly disappointing.
Largely, I imagine that’s because of the cost. Chase was the no-brainer No.1 Overall Pick for me and nearly everyone else, largely because of his field-gapping 2024 performance.
In 2024, outscored the Justin Jefferson, the WR2, by nearly 90 Full PPR Points. He finished 1st in targets (175), catches (127), yards (1708), TDs (17), and FPs (403 – 4th most ALL TIME!), becoming the youngest player to win the receiving Triple Crown.
Fantasy-wise, Chase had a 72% playoff advance rate in 2024, as well as over 50% advance rate on Underdog for Best Ball.
Ultimately in 2025, Chase still produced phenomenally, passing any and every eyeball test. He’s still my pick for the single-best WR talent in the league today.
Yet, when Chase’s No.1 overall cost gets baked in, he ultimately finished just 24th in ESPN fantasy playoff advance rate with 53.4%.
Among WRs, Chase ranked just 7th in ESPN Advance Rate, trailing Jaxon Smith-Njigba (71%), Puka Nacua (59.6%), George Pickens (58.7%), Davante Adams (58.4%), Amon–Ra St. Brown (55.8%), Rashee Rice (55.4%), and Emeka Egbuka (53.4%).
Obviously, we know Chase brought more to the table than Egbuka. Still, the goal of this game is titles, and Chase went from the guy at earning championships to a guy, relative to his cost.
Nonetheless, Chase remains a Top-5 overall lock in 2026 Fantasy Football. He’s simply that good. Joe Burrow is that good. And the Bengals’ defense will likely remain that bad. This fantasy formula has routinely worked whenever Burrow and Chase can remain healthy, and I expect that to be the case again in 2026.
Additionally, Chase’s worse games are easily explicable: they were all Jake Browning starts:
- Week 3 vs. MIN = 6 tgt, 5 rec, 50 yds, 10.9 FPs, WR34
- Week 4 vs. DEN = 8 tgt, 5 rec, 23 yds, 7.3 FPs, WR53
- Week 5 vs. DET = 10 tgt, 6 rec, 110 yds, 2 TDs, 29 FPs, WR2
Two bottom-three matchups with a bottom-50 QB throwing the rock = a fair explanation for two duds. Another one of Chase’s worst outputs was a 6 pointer in which he was ejected for spitting on Jalen Ramsey.
If you remove all of Browning’s starts (including the 29 pointer) + Chase’s spit game, he averaged 21.9 FPPG. This would’ve trailed only Christian McCaffrey (24.5) and Puka (23.4) in FPPG. In the last two season’s with Burrow, Chase averages 22.56 FPPG.
Beyond this, Chase offers more week-winning, soul-wrecking upside than any single player in the NFL.
Since entering the league in 2021, Chase has recorded a whopping five of the Top-20 highest single-game WR scores. This includes all of the Top-3!
Yes, Chase owns the #1 (55.6 FPs), #2 (55.4), and #3 (52.2) highest single-game explosions, as well as #11 (45.1) and #20 (41.3).
Ultimately, there’s simply no one you’d either be more excited to have in your lineup, or be terrified to face, when Week 17 Championships hit.
As such, Chase remains a Top-3 No Brainer in redraft and best ball. His power to single-handedly shift a single game, alongside a very stable floor, makes him impossible to pass on inside the Top-Five.
Chase’s main risk is Burrow’s injury history. However, the Bengals are interested in re-signing Flacco. If this happens, Chase can be argued as high as even the No.1 overall pick once more (even if I’d still prefer Bijan or Puka).
4. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB-DET)
On talent alone, Gibbs would probably be my No.1 overall pick. No player excites me more. No player pops on tape more once he’s going.
Gibbs is like the Chase of Fantasy RBs. A bit more volatile, a little less weekly floor, but the most week-winning boom of any player at his position.
Gibbs’ 55.4 PPR FPs Eruption is Week 12 eruption vs. the Giants is the best single-week output by an RB since Gibbs entered the NFL. Over the past 10 years, this game trails only Alvin Kamara‘s Christmas Day 56.2 FP explosion (2020).
Over the past two seasons, Gibbs accounts for five of the Top-15 RB one-week performances — a third of them! This includes #1 (55.4 FPs), #4 (46), #12 (38.2), #14 (37), and #15 (36.8):
There’s simply no player, regardless of position, who’s more consistently explosive than Gibbs. In fact, Gibbs accounted four 3 of the Top-4 Ball Carrier Speeds of 2025, according to NFL Next Gen Stats:
Even more encouraging?
Alongside the rest of the Lions offense, Gibbs underwhelmed to begin 2025 under John Morton. He averaged just 16.41 Half-PPR FPs (RB7).
Then, Dan Campbell took over play-calling for the Lions in Week 10. Gibbs averaged 21.9 Half-PPR FPs (RB1), a full 1.3 FPs more than the next-closest McCaffrey over that span. He was a Top-12 RB in 6-of-9 games in this span too.
Most notably, Campbell wasn’t afraid to ride Gibbs as a true bell-cow. In Weeks 1-9 under Morton, Gibbs averaged just 62% of the snaps. He never played more than 69% of the snaps, either.
Under Campbell, Gibbs hit 69% or higher snaps in every single contest besides one (which was a blowout and he was rested for the fourth quarter). In 89% of games, Gibbs played 69% or more snaps, and averaged a 72% snap share in this span. Campbell also designed far more first-read throws and creative routes for Gibbs, too.
Perhaps most encouragingly, David Montgomery could very-well be gone in 2026. GM Brad Holmes suggested interest in a trade, telling Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:
“Those are conversations that we’re going to have to have because I’ve got a lot of respect for that player. He deserves to be in a situation where his skill set can be utilized. And so yeah, would love it for it to be here, but if it can’t be here, then you would have to just see what you can work out the best for him.”
In six career games without David Montgomery, Gibbs averages 27.4 PPR FPPG (!). The 466 PPR FPs pace would rank third all time, behind only LaDainian Tomlinson‘s 2006 (481 FPs) and Christian McCaffrey‘s 2019 (471).
Gibb’s season-long pace in his. career games without Montgomery = 413 touches (79 rec, 88 tgts), 2504 YFS, 23 TDs!
Gibbs’ fantasy finishes in games without Montgomery:
- 9.2 FPs (Week 3 2023), RB25 – rookie year, still “getting feet wet.”
- 27.6 FPs (Week 7 ‘23), RB3
- 29.9 (Week 6 ‘23), RB1
- 25.4 (Week 16 ‘24), RB7
- 26.3 (Week 17 ‘24), RB2
- 46 (Week 18 ‘24), RB1
Granted, some play-calling questions linger into 2025. Will Dan Campbell remain the lead guy, or will the keys be turned over to the new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing?
If that’s the case…. oh, how I wish Mike McDaniel ended up in Detroit as the OC:
Instead, we get… Drew Petzing.
From the JUGGERNAUT Cardinals’ attack!
Indeed, the knee jerk reaction to Petzing’s hire may induce puke. Certainly, it’s underwhelming.
Yet, I’m not entirely ready to fully throw the towel in on Petzing. He used James Conner like a true bell-cow in 2023 and 2024. Conner’s season-long pace in those season = 303 touches (43 receptions), 1590 YFS, and 11 TDs. His 14.5 Half-PPR FFPG would’ve ranked as the RB7, just ahead of Chase Brown and just below Derrick Henry. Additionally, the offense ranked 7th and 8th in EPA per touch across those two seasons. The run game has potential here.
As a whole, Jacoby Brissett is the most competent QB Petzing has had to work with (yes, Kyler Murray sucks). Brissett was the QB6 over his games as a starter, Michael Wilson became a God, and Trey McBride was Zeus Himself.
Ultimately, Petzing’s full story is far from complete, and there may be a whole lot more upside than most acknowledge at first glance.
Still, the biggest story remains David Montgomery’s status. If he departs, Gibbs will be hard to keep out of the Top-2, regardless of who’s calling the plays. For now, #4 overall feels appropriate.
Tier 2 – 2026 Fantasy Legends with No.1 Player Upside (but more warts)
This tier features three players who have strong cases to finish as the top player at their positions, but a few more roadblocks to achieving this upside.
5. Christian McCaffrey (SF-RB)
McCaffrey absolutely warrants “Tier 1 – Fantasy God” consideration. If you promised me 17 games again, CMC would belong 1st Overall.
How could you not? CMC literally just scored more PPR Fantasy Points (416.6) and averaged more FPPG (24.5) than any player, at any position. Some illuminating comparisons
- QB1 = Josh Allen – 374.6 FPs, 22 FPPG, (42 less than CMC)
- WR1 = Puka Nacua 375 FPS, 23.4 FPPG (41 less than CMC)
- RB2 = Bijan Robinson 370.8 FPs, 21.8 FPPG (46 less than CMC)
Yes, CMC was significantly better than every other Top Scorer in 2026. But that should be no surprise. Over the past seven years, Christian McCaffrey has either:
A) Finished as THE RB1, OR
B) Missed half or more of the season.
When CMC hits, he’s not just getting on base, either. It’s a Grand Slam. Every time.
So much so, that McCaffrey has three of the Top-20 ALL TIME PPR RB Fantasy Seasons. His 2019 ranks #2 (471.2 FPs), trailing only LaDanian Tomlinson‘s legendary 2006 (481.1 FPs, 31 TDS!).
Additionally, McCraffrey’s 2024 ranks 9th all-time (416.6), and his 2023 was 17th. Yes, in his two full seasons with the 49ers, CMC has posted Top-20 All Time finishes.
If you shrink the sample to the last 10 years, McCaffey has the No.1, No.2, No.4, and No.6 spots for most PPR points in a single season among RBs.
Yes, CMC owns 67% of the Top-6 RB Seasons of the last decade, joined only by David Johnson and Saquon Barkley.
McCaffrey has been the definition of a Power Law Fantasy Player for his entire career. In 2026, 71.9% of teams with CMC made the playoffs in ESPN leagues, which trailed only Jonathan Taylor (72.3%) by a pube.
The only two reasons McCaffrey’s not at Number One Overall go hand-in-hand: age (mileage) and risk. There quite literally isn’t a more obvious “win you or lose you your league” pick for seven straight seasons:
McCaffrey will be 30 entering the 2026 Fantasy Season. The 30 year-old Age Cliff for RBs has been known for decades. Indeed, anomalies like Derrick Henry and Frank Gore exist. Given his versatile skillset, McCaffrey is an easy bet to be an anomaly himself.
If age was all he had going against him, McCaffrey would be an easy Double Down. Yet, the same Curse that nipped down 2024’s RB1 also lingers with McCaffrey, to an even greater extreme:
THE CURSE OF 400+ TOUCHES!
McCaffrey finished the regular season with a whopping 413 touches (311 carries, 102 receptions) on 440 opportunities. When you add in two playoff contests, he’s up to 449 touches. That would tie Demarco Murray‘s 2014 for 6th most ALL TIME.
Since 2010, there have been 17 RBs with 370+ touches. All but one of these RBs fell in fantasy production, with 14-of-17 dropping by at least 50+ points and 11-of-17 dropping by 100+ points.
The outlook is even worse for 400+ touch RBs. In the Super Bowl era, 35 RBs have hit 400+ carries in a season. 31-of-35 scored fewer points (88%), and no RB scored more since 2000. The average drop in FPs the next year was a whopping 141. None have finished higher than RB15 since 2003:
Granted, touches and carries are different. But McCaffrey is undoubtedly a high mileage back.
Additionally, his best days are clearly behind him. McCaffrey may be as crafty as ever, especially in his routes.
Yet, his homerun explosivity is long gone. He ranked 51st in YPC (3.9). Among RBs with 50+ carries, CMC ranked 42nd in explosive run rate (3.5%) per FantasyPoints’ Advanced Rushing Data, below Chris Rodriguez, Kimani Vidal, David Montgomery among others.
CMC also wasn’t great rushing on a down-to-down basis. He also posted a negative Rushing EPA (-0.07), which ranked 40th among 64 RBs with 50+ carries, and his 39.23% Success Rate ranked 42nd, below Malik Davis, Ollie Gordon, and Tyler Allgeier, among many others.
Still, when available, no player has a more consistent role or steadier production. McCaffrey was a Top-12 RB in 82% of his games last year, with his lowest score (9.8) coming against the brutal Texans’ run defense.
Extend this even further to his time with the 49ers. He was acquired ahead of Week 8 in 2022. If you remove 2024’s injury-plagued season, CMC has played 43 games with the 49ers. Here are his outputs per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer:
In his 43 games with Kyle Shanahan, McCaffrey has produced the following totals:
- 35-of-43 games have been Top-12 (81.3%)
- Hit 20+ PPR FPs in 27-of-43 games (63%)
- Been a Top-5 Weekly RB in 23-of-43 games (53.4%)
- His two healthy seasons rank inside the Top-20 all-time, and inside the Top-4 of the last 10 years
Obviously, I don’t feel great about CMC’s 2026 odds to stay healthy if I have a player of this caliber down at five. I also never seem to get him right — every year I take the plunge, CMC gets hurt. All this San Francisco substation talk has me a little queasy too.
Still, the value of CMC’s season-winning upside far outweighs the glaring downside. He rounds out my Top-5, and will absolutely be among 2026’s more influential players, for better or for worse.
If you prefer a much safer, younger talent, then instead consider:
6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA – WR)
After a concerning rookie season, JSN seemed to enjoy a true breakout as a sophomore in 2024. He leapt from WR48as a rookie all the way to the WR10 in PPR FPs, nearly doubling his yards and TDs in the process.
Turns out this impressive sophomore jump was just the opening act to a truly show-stopping Year 3.
Going mid-to-late Round 3, JSN was among the single-best league-winners of 2025 Fantasy. He finished 4th in targets (163), 3rd in catches (119), 1st in yards (1793), and 2nd in PPR FPs (361.9).
Equally impressive was JSN’s consistency. He was a Top-12 WR in a whopping 71% of his games, dipping below 13 FPs only one time (per RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer):
Without any additional context, JSN’s production was already elite. But consider: the Seahawks actually ran the ball more than they threw in 2025, and JSN still led the league in receiving yards.
In fact, JSN accounted for a whopping 44.12% of his team’s passing yards, by far the highest in the league last season. His 35.9% overall target share and 44.6% 1st Read Target share, per FantasyPoints Data, also ranked 1st.
Perhaps most impressive was the diversity in JSN’s production. He led the NFL in yards without leading the NFL in yards on any particular route— but he also ranked Top-6 in nearly half the categories (and No. 2 in 33% of routes!):
JSN was 5th in Yards after Catch (557) yet also 2nd in Air Yards (1794), getting it done at every layer, in every route type. His 3.72 Yards per Route Run trailed only Nacua’s 3.85. Smith-Njigba’s 3.73 yards per team pass attempt was the top mark of a WR in at least 30 years!
Ultimately, JSN’s 2025 performance was one for the history books, and he’s only just entering his prime.
The only reason JSN is not inside my Top-3 overall? The likely turnover in offensive play-calling. Who will take over for Klint Kubiak, the expected next HC of the Raiders?
In his brief coaching career, Kubiak has long coached incredible efficiency out of his main weapons despite featuring ground-centric offenses. In 2024, Rashid Shaheed lit it up for the Saints prior to getting hurt, while Justin Jefferson exploded as a sophomore in 2021 with Kubiak at the helm.
Despite a run-heavy approach, Kubiak / Shanahan schemes funnel so much volume for their top receiving dogs when provided an elite option. They maximize motion to shake these top options free. They open up the whole route tree, scheming up oodles of lay-up YAC and deep passes alike.
Ultimately, we know Mike Macdonald wants a run-first identity. He fired Ryan Grubb for passing too much, and followed up with an offense that ranked 2nd in rush rate (50% of plays) and 4th in rush attempts per game (28.9).
Can we trust another play-caller to maximize the efficiency of this small Aerial Pie as much as Klint Kubiak did?
It’s not a given in my eyes. it’s honestly quite rare for an offense to be this run heavy and still feature a Top-3 Fantasy WR. If the next Seahawks’ OC isn’t quite as creative with his shifts or motions, JSN could take a slight step back.
Ideally, an OC from the Shannahan / Kubiak / McVay mold slides right in. We need someone who maximizes motion and diverse looks / packages to shake JSN free. In that case, JSN will likely jump CMC in my 2026 rankings, given his much higher floor. I also prioritize JSN in Best Ball, where a season-ending bomb from CMC is near-impossible to recover from.
Even without Kubiak, JSN warrants consideration anywhere in the Top-6. As a Round 3/4 turn pick last year, JSN ultimately ranked third in ESPN Playoff Advance Rate with a whopping 71%. This trailed only Jonathan Taylor (72.3%) and Christian McCaffrey (71.9%).
Additionally, JSN ranked 2nd in Championship Roster Percentage at a whopping 25.2%. Yes, just having JSN gave you a 1-in-4 shot at a fantasy title last season. In 2026, JSN’s certainly safer than McCaffrey ahead of him too, so if you like to minimize risk in Round 1, go JSN as high as Pick Five.
7. Jonathan Taylor (IND-RB)
Jonathan Taylor joins JSN on the short-list of the best picks in all of 2025 Fantasy.
Despite falling to Round 2, Taylor was the RB4 in PPR FPs (364), RB2 in Half-PPR (341), and RB1 in Standard (318). He was the “Saquon Barkley of 2025”– a Round 2 RB that launched paths to fantasy titles.
But did he help owners truly bring home the gold?
Through 10 Weeks, there wasn’t a single better player than Jonathan Taylor, PPR or otherwise. Taylor had racked up 273 PPR FPs, nearly 30 more than the next closest McCaffrey among ALL PLAYERS.
Using RotoViz’s Game Split app, we see Taylor was on pace for:
- 2378 YFS (1936 Rushing, nearly 2K!)
- 347 touches (26 receptions)
- 29 TDs (!)
- 466 FPs (27.4 FPPG)
That amount would’ve ranked THIRD ALL-TIME!
The crucial question becomes: why the fall-off?
Daniel Jones‘ injury is easy to blame, and likely the most correct answer.
Through Week 10, the Colts were 8-2. THe offense was HUMMING, ranking 1st in the league with 32.2 points per game. The Lions ranked second with 29.9.
As the engine of this juggernaut, Taylor was the guy you had to have. He was even in the MVP conversation, and seemed like a shoo-in for the offensive player of the year.
70% of Taylor’s games from Week 1-10 ranked in the Top-12. Four of them ranked No.1. He topped 30+ FPs in 5-of-10 games!
Jones himself was cooking, too. He was the QB5 in FPs, trailing only Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen.
Then… disaster struck. Following a Week 11 Bye, Jones sustained a broken fibula vs. KC. Jones tried fighting through this, but he, the offense, and ultimately Taylor were never the same for the last 7 games.
The Colts lost all 7 final games. They averaged just 20.7 points per game, 26th in the league. Jones succumbed to a Week 14 Achilles tear. Taylor was just the RB23 with a meager 12.6 PPR FPPG from Week 12-18. He posted just one RB1 Performance the rest of the way, with a high of 17.4 FPs.
Hopefully, the answer is as simple as no Daniel Jones = crumbling Colts Offense = crumbling JT Fantasy Season.
But what if Taylor ran out of some gas after a MASSIVE early-season workload?
Even if not, Jones tore his Achilles quite late. Moreover, while a return to the Colts is likely, it’s not a lock.
If he does come back, will Jones be the same guy who was leading the league’s best offense? Neither Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins looked themselves following Achilles’ tears, but Jones is significantly younger too.
The “hopeful” prognosis for Jones is a June / July return. This would make me feel signficantly better about Jonathan Taylor’s 2026 Fantasy Outlook:
Achilles’ injuries are still tough to project. If negative reports pop up, or Jones happens to leave the Colts, we’ll re-evaluate. Ultimately, if Jones is back and healthy, I expect Taylor to produce similarly to his Weeks 1-10.
The Colts boasted the No.2 Offensive line in the league per PFF, and should maintain most, if not all, of it in 2026 (RT Braden Smith is a mauler and a free agent). I also love Shane Steichen, who is unafraid to saddle up Taylor 350-400+ times in a season.
Owners might worry about age and mileage, but Taylor just turned 27. Per 4for4 Fantasy’s “Production Curves,” RBs continue peak performance right through their Age 28 Season:
Ultimately, Taylor is still in his prime. No player led more teams to the ESPN Fantasy Playoffs than Taylor, with a 72.3% advance rate. Indeed, his Round 2 price buoyed that number.
Still, if Daniel Jones’ is trending the right way, and the Colts seem to be entering 2026 with largely the same Machine that led the NFL in scoring through 10 weeks, Taylor will be well-worth a Round 1 pick. Shoot, he’d even warrant consideration as high as No.1 Overall in Half-PPR and especially Standard leagues.
For now, this 7th overall ranking appropriately balances the risk and upside.
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET-WR) 📈
Amon-Ra St. Brown may not be the “sexiest” first rounder. He is, however, among the safest by a mile.
Across his career, St. Brown has played in 83 of 85 possible games (97.6%). The Sun God’s ability to gut out injuries and still play at an elite level is simply unparalleled in the NFL.
Not only is ASB always available. He’s consistently among the best WRs in the game.
He has finished as the PPR WR7, WR3, WR2, and WR3 across his last four-seasons. In all four, he has posted 140+ targets & 106+ receptions.
Cut down to his past three years, and St. Brown has been even better.
He’s been Top-3 WR in Full or Half PPR for three straight years. He has finished Top-5 in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs in three straight years! ranking No.2 in receptions & Top-5 in yards in back-to-back years.
Understandably, St. Brown entered last year with some question marks. Ben Johnson left for Chicago, and the offensive guru was known for funneling production to the slot. Jameson Williams continued to ascend. Jahmyr Gibbs’ role continued to grow.
Worry not — ASB posted more FPs (324 > 318), targets (175 > 142), catches (117 > 115), yards (1401 > 1263), and TDs (12 > 11) without Johnson.
St. Brown maintained his elite consistency, too, with 41% of his performances finishing Top-12, and a whopping 76% in the Top-24 WRs.
His mind-meld with QB Jared Goff is simply too strong that St. Brown’s Top-3 will endure nearly any play-caller changes or surrounding player ascensions.
Since he became a starter in Week 13 of his rookie season, St. Brown has now finished:
- Top-12 in 33-of-72 games (46%)
- Top-24 in 49-of-72 (68%)
- Dropped below 10 FPs just 10 times (14%)
St. Brown isn’t just a floor play, either. He hit a new weekly ceiling, setting a career-record in Week 15 vs. the Rams with 18 targets, 13 receptions, 164 yards, 2 TD and 41.4 FPs. He’s hit 30+ FPs a whopping 9 times in that span.
Sometimes, the league-winning moves are the safest. Getting a Set-and-Forget Top-3 Seasonal WR, with elite consistency + splash week upside, towards the end of Round 1? A no brainer.
Tier 3 – Fantasy Round 1 No-Brainers
9. James Cook (RB-BUF)
Remember when James Cook was doomed in fantasy because he couldn’t score TDs with a vulture like Josh Allen?
In his first two seasons, Cook rushed for a meager 4 total TDs. In the two seasons since, Cook has rushed for 28 TDs.
For context, only Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs have rushed for more scores in that span.
Unsurprisingly, Cook has been an easy Top-10 RB in back-to-back seasons, finishing as the RB8 in 2024 (250 FPs) and RB6 in 2025 (292 FPs). Cook also won the rushing crown last year (1621 yards), finishing third in rushes (309) and 5th in total TDs (14) on the year. Cook also ranked 1st in Rush Yards over Expected (358)
Given his Round 3 price tag last year, Cook was easily one of 2025’s League Winners. 60.6% of teams with Cook made the playoffs in ESPN, 8th most among all players and 6th among RBs. He also was on 18.2% of Championship Rosters, which was 7th among all players and third among RBs.
Ultimately, Joe Brady being promoted to head coach is uninspiring for most of the Bills’ roster, but this continuity a best-case scenario for Cook. No team ran the ball more than Buffalo (32.1 attempts) in 2025, and Brady seems committed to “establishing the run” even to a fault.
Sure, it’s questionable that Brady chooses to make Cook his offensive engine instead of Josh Allen, the most dangerous weapon in football. But Cook fantasy owners won’t complain. Ultimately, he was a Top-12 RB in 59% of his games, and Top-24 in a whopping 82% of contests (per RotoViz):
The main roadblock to Cook truly wrecking leagues is his lack of receiving usage. He saw only 40 targets last year, which ranked 26th among RBs. This number is especially concerning given the Bills’ lack of reliable pass-catchers. Back-up RB Ty Johnson had just 7 fewer targets than Cook (33 total).
Doubly odd, Cook’s prospect reports often praised his receiving ability. As a sophomore in the NFL, he racked up 54 targets, 44 receptions, 445 yards (8th among RBs), and 4 TDs as a pass-catcher, and seemed to be blossoming into a true three-down RB.
If Brady decides to evolve Cook’s role and feature him as a receiver more, Cook has the upside to leap into the Top-3 overall. He certainly has a 50-60 catch season within him, and this would be the missing puzzle-piece to a truly “had-to-have it” season.
It’s not like Brady is opposed to throwing to RBs, either.
Prior to his time in Buffalo, Brady had 2 seasons calling plays for Carolina (2020 & 2021). In 2020, a creature named Mike Davis ranked 4th in the NFL with 70 targets (in just 12 starts), and the Panthers ranked 8th as a team with 114 RB targets.
In 2021, the Panthers ranked 2nd with 140 RB targets, despite CMC playing just 7 games. Ameer Abdullah even saw 49 targets! If Brady can scheme up 70 targets for Mike Davis, who’s to say he can’t do the same for Cook?
Thus, Cook represents a phenomenal balance of a safe, solid rushing (and fantasy) floor with the upside to truly destroy souls if his role evolves. His TD upside will always be sky-high within a Josh Allen offense. His offensive line ranked 6th by PFF last year, and Joe Brady remains in place. With this continuity, there’s little reason to expect anything worse than his RB8 or RB6 finish from the past two years.
Thus, Cook is my RB5 in my Updated 2026 Fantasy Football Rankings.
10. De’Von Achane (RB-MIA) 📉
If Mike McDaniel had remained in Miami, Achane would’ve ranked no lower than 8th overall on this list. Unfortunately, McDaniel departed for greener pastures with the Chargers, which raises at least a small red flag for Achane’s 2026 Fantasy Outlook.
Still, Achane is an elite talent. He has been the RB5 in back-to-back seasons, racking up 261 and 289 FPs in the process. Just last year, Achane advanced the 4th most teams to ESPN Playoffs with a 63.5% clip; he trailed only JSN, CMC, and Taylor.
Achane has also played in 33-of-34 games the past two years. The only game he missed was a meaningless Week 18 game last year. If the Dolphins’ season wasn’t toast, Achane likely would’ve been out there.
Achane ultimately played 76.3% of the snaps (RB6) and saw 70.8% of the opportunities (RB8). Concerns over his size and durability, and ability to shoulder a featured RB workload, should be silenced now.
Nonetheless, McDaniel was an expert at getting the explosive Achane in space and involved in the passing game. Achane ranked 2nd in target share in back-to-back years, while finishing 1st (78) and 6th (67) in receptions, plus 2nd (87) and 5th (85) in targets during that span.
Achane has been an efficient, explosive machine too. Despite ranking just 14th in total carries (238), Achane ranked 1st in 10+ yard runs (40), and 2nd in 20+ yard (13), 30+ yard (6), and 40+ yard (4) runs.
Per FantasyPoints Advanced Rushing Data, among RBs with 60+ carries, Achane ranked 1st in Explosive run rate (10.1%), 1st in explosive yards (622), and 1st in percentage of yards from explosive runs (46.1%).
Surely, he benefited from McDaniels’ scheme. Still, Achane is an insanely explosive talent. He has the 4th fastest RB Forty Time (4.32) of all-time, and it shows up on tape.
Achane’s incredible receiving usage and explosivity has led to remarkable consistency. Last season, Achane was Top-12 in 69% of his games and never dipped below the RB17 or 12.8 PPR FPs in Weekly Output.
He has also greatly benefited from playing with Tua, which may be a blessing or curse entering 2026. Over the last two seasons, Achane has played 25 games with Tua compared to 8 without him.
His season-long pace in these splits:
- With Tua: 324 touches (87 receptions, 103 targets), 1895 YFS, 15 TDs, 366 FPs, 21.55 FPPG
- Without Tua: 248 touches (36 receptions, 42 targets), 1168 YFS, 4 TDs, 178 FPs, 10.5 FPs
Quite literally, Achane’s production has more-than doubled with Tua on the field. This can be viewed one of two ways:
A) If Achane can dominate at this level with a subpar NFL Starting QB, imagine what he could do with someone actually good?
B) If Achane can’t perform well without Tua, what happens next year when Tua’s likely gone or at least benched?
In particular, I worry about Achane’s receiving splits with vs. without Tua. He goes from an absurd 103 target pace with Tua to a pathetic 42 target pace without him.
If, say, Malik Willis joins this new Green Bay heavy staff, Achane’s receiving upside will surely take a hit. At minimum, NFL Insider Ian Rapoport expects Tua to be traded:
“I’d be surprised if Tua was in Miami [next year],” Rapoport told Jim Rome on a podcast earlier this week. “I think they can trade him. But they’re going to have to eat a lot of the contract to do it, which is OK. They’re paying it anyway, so might as well eat, you know, $30 million. What’s the difference? I think they can trade him.”
Tua himself said a “fresh start would be dope” and that “he would be good with it.”
Perhaps a QB change unlocks a new ceiling for Achane, but my guess is it’d be largely negative for his 2026 Fantasy Value.
As will the change from McDaniel to new OC Bobby Slowik. Granted, Slowik was being hailed as the Second Coming after his first season calling plays. CJ Stroud shocked as a rookie under Slowik, and the Texans leapt to 12th in yards and 13th in points after ranking 31st and 30th in those respective categories in 2022.
Unfortunately, Year 2 was a major step back for both Stroud and the Texans as a whole. They dropped to 22nd in yards and 19th in points, while Stroud looked dramatically worse. Slowik was unceremoniously let go, and he ultimately latched on with Miami as QB coach.
On the positive front, at least Slowik’s hire brings some continuity, even if it’s likely a steep decline from McDaniel. Additionally, Joe Mixon was the RB9 in FPPG (17.2) under Slowik in 2024 and averaged 21.2 opportunities per game. Through the first 13 games, Mixon was actually 2nd in FPPG (19.9) behind only Saquon Barkley.
At this stage of their careers, Achane is 10x the athlete of Mixon. Thus, there is definitely still upside here. Still, the QB uncertainty and play-caller downgrade are enough to send Achane to the bottom of Round 1, rather than the middle where a talent like him belongs.
11. CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL)
Lamb’s 2026 Fantasy Outlook largely hinges on George Pickens‘ status. The mercurial Pickens is scheduled to be a free agent, but both parties are hoping for a return to Dallas.
Pickens said he “would love to” remain in Dallas. Meanwhile, Jerry Jones said “I’m looking forward to getting things worked out so George can be a Cowboy a long time.”
Still, we just saw Micah Parsons depart after similar comments from the owner, so Pickens’ returning isn’t a lock, despite feeling likely, especially based on Adams Schefter‘s latest comments. He expectes the team to Franchise Tag Pickens:
Let’s weigh both scenarios for Lamb.
Last year with Pickens in Dallas, Lamb was just the WR13 in FPPG. His 14.3 FPPG was the second-lowest of his career and the worst since his rookie season (13.7).
In fact, Lamb actually finished well-below Pickens (17.2, WR6) in FPPG. Still, some context is definitely needed.
Lamb suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter of Week 3, and missed Weeks 4-6. Pickens ERUPTED during this absence, posting his two highest scores of the season (33.4 and 31.8 FPs), which dramatically boosted his FPPG.
Additionally, both stud WRs largely rested in a meaningless Week 18 matchup. If we remove Week 3 and Week 18, we had 12 Games Played together for Lamb and Pickens.
Let’s dive into who saw more FPs and targets across those games:
- Week 1: Lamb 18 FPs & 13 targets; Pickens 6 FPs & 4 targets
- Week 2: Lamb 20.2 FPs & 11 targets, Pickens 17.8 FPs & 9 targets
- Week 7: Lamb 22 FPs & 8 targets, Pickens 12.2 FPs & 6 targets
- Week 8: Lamb 14.6 FPs & 10 targets, Pickens 14.8 FPs & 9 targets
- Week 9: Lamb 15.5 FPs & 12 targets, Pickens 13.9 FPs & 9 targets
- Week 11: Lamb 17.6 FPs & 7 targets, Pickens 29.4 FPs & 11 targets
- Week 12: Lamb 11.5 FPs & 11 targets, Pickens 29.6 FPs & 9 targets
- Week 13: Lamb 24.2 FPs & 9 targets, Pickens 16.8 & 13 targets
- Week 14: Lamb 18.1 FPs & 8 targets, Pickens 8.7 & 8 targets
- Week 15: Lamb 17.1 FPs & 10 targets, Pickens 6.3 & 6 targets
- Week 16: Lamb 11.1 FPs & 7 targets, Pickens 26 FPs & 9 targets
- Week 17: Lamb 9.6 FPs & 10 targets, Pickens 11.8 FPs & 5 targets
Lamb points & targets:
Pickens targets & points
Ultimately, Lamb saw more targets in 8-of-12 full games together (67%) and scored more FPs in 7-of-12 (58.3%). From a volume perspective, Lamb was still the “Alpha.”
Yet, Pickens actually averaged more FPPG in those 12 contests (16.1 FPPG) than Lamb (15.7) due to bigger spike weeks, especially Weeks 11 & 12.
In fact, between the duo, Pickens actually had the five-best single-week performances with 33.4, 31.8, 29.4, 29.6, and 26 FP Weeks. The sixth best weekly performance was Lamb’s 24.2 FP day.
So where does this leave us in 2026?
Clearly, I still prefer Lamb of the two WRs. Just two years ago, Lamb put up 403.2 FPs, the third-most of all time behind only Jerry Rice and Cooper Kupp. He entered this season with three straight 152+ target, WR8+ FPPG seasons. He has averaged 19.4 FPPG with Prescott at QB over the last 3 years, which would’ve ranked as the WR4 last season.
This track record, and chemistry with Prescott, matters. Additionally, even after his career year, Pickens still has major consistency and work ethic questions after he seemingly quit over the last few weeks.
If Pickens departs, Lamb will rise 3-4+ overall spots, likely ahead of Amon-Ra and even Taylor in Full-PPR. As the clear-cut Alpha for Dak Prescott on a team that constantly chases points (the NFC’s Bengals!), Lamb would have “The WR1” upside once again. He’s an elite, young talent well within the prime of his career.
In 4for4’s Production Curves study, they noted Age 26-28 are the peak performance for WRs. Lamb will turn 27 in April:
If Pickens stays, which is even more likely now, Lamb could fall 2-3 spots. It’s undeniable that Pickens significantly lowers Lamb’s floor and ceiling. Pickens flashed higher spike week upside all year too, and he is just starting to enter his prime, turning 25 in March.
As of now, a 11th overall ranking for Lamb reflects the greater likelihood of Pickens returning, with a dash of hope that Jerry Jones fumbles this scenario and allows Lamb to reclaim his throne both in Dallas and in 2026 Fantasy.
12. Trey McBride (TE-ARI)
For a TE to be worth Round 1 draft capital, he needs to significantly lap the field. These types of seasons are few and far between, and typically, you’re better off just punting the position.
McBride didn’t just lap the field in 2025. He completely obliterated it.
McBride scored 315 PPR FPs, the third-most all time, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (330.9 in 2011) and Travis Kelce (316.3 in 2022).
In the process, McBride outscored the TE2 (Kyle Pitts, 210.8) by a whopping 105.8 FPs! He nearly doubled up the last TE1 (Colston Loveland, TE12, 165 FPs).
McBride achieved this by setting an NFL record for catches (126) and targets (169) by a TE in a single season. He also led the NFL in TE yards (1239) and TDs (11).
Ultimately, among WRs, McBride would have ranked as the WR4 — ahead of Ja’Marr Chase, and only behind Puka Nacua, JSN, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
The 11 touchdowns were the most pleasant surprise of McBride’s season. Prior to 2025, McBride had scored just 6 total TDs through three seasons, never hitting more than 3 in a season. This seemed to be a real problem, as he scored 1, 4, 4, and 1 TDs across his four collegiate seasons too, and reportedly only scored 1 TD his senior year of high school:
Turns out a 6’4″ athletic monster with a massive catch radius can actually score TDs. He just needs the right QB throwing him the rock.
That’s what makes McBride’s 2025 extra scary: he didn’t even really start to cook until Kyler Murray got hurt and Jacoby Brissett took over.
Through Weeks 1-5, McBride was hardly lighting the world on fire. He was the TE4 in total points, trailing Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, and Tyler Warren. His highest weekly output was 15.3 FPs, and he scored just 1 TD.
McBride averaged 12.5 FPPG over this span. He was on pace for 143 targets, 99 catches, 935 yards, and 3 TDs. Solid, but unremarkable.
Then, Brissett took over. Across these 12 games, McBride topped 20+ FPs a whopping 7 times (58.33%).
He averaged an insane 21.1 FPPG, and was on pace for: 178 targets, 137 (!) catches, 1366 yards, and 14 TDs!
This would’ve amounted to 359 FPs — the most of ALL TIME by a Tight End. McBride would’ve scored more than every Wide Receiver in the league outside of Puka Nacua at that pace! Per RotoViz’s Game Splits tool:
Unsurprisingly, McBride ranked 5th among all players in ESPN Playoff Advance Rate (63.5%). He ranked 4th among all players on Championship Rosters (22.4%), behind only Puka, JSN, and Bijan and ahead of McCaffrey!
And remember: this was with JACOBY BRISSETT throwing the rock! A career journeyman QB. Imagine if McBride gets a QB upgrade?
Indeed, we want to make sure the Cardinals move on from Murray. This seems like a foregone conclusion, but if they don’t, McBride would belong closer to Round 5 than Round 1.
Clearly, I am assuming they do in fact move on. As such, McBride represents a Prime Kelce type of edge that is truly justifiable anywhere in Round 1. Once we know who the QB is, McBride might find himself within my Top-6 overall picks.
Summary: The Top-12 Picks in 2026 Fantasy Football
Indeed, these rankings will change between now and 2026 Fantasy Football Drafts. Some players who are not listed will join the Round 1 Rankings, and some will fall off.
As of now, I currently rank my 2026 Fantasy Football Round 1:
TIER 1
1) Bijan Robinson
2) Puka Nacua
3) Ja’Marr Chase
4) Jahmyr Gibbs
TIER 2:
5) Christian McCaffrey
6) Jaxon Smith-Njigba
7) Jonathan Taylor
8) Amon-Ra St. Brown
TIER 3:
9) James Cook
10) De’Von Achane
11) CeeDee Lamb
12) Trey McBride
There are plenty of players knocking on the door, though. In my next article, I’ll dive Deep into Round 2, and the next men up who rank 13-24.
