The 2025–26 NFL postseason has ushered in a seismic shift in the league’s power structure and betting landscape. For the first time in nearly a decade, AFC heavyweights Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow are sidelined. This vacuum has created a “post-dynasty” market, where traditional favorites give way to defensive powerhouses and a new generation of quarterbacks.
As the playoffs progress toward Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, bettors are finding that old rules of thumb are being replaced by data-driven trends centered on efficiency, momentum, and the decline of the traditional home-field “bye week” advantage.
The “Post-Dynasty” AFC and Defensive Premiums
In the AFC, the NFL betting narrative has shifted away from the high-flying air raids of years past toward a premium on defensive efficiency. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots emerged as the primary contenders, but they are doing so with a blueprint that favors the “Under” in total points markets. Denver, holding the top seed, paired an elite scoring defense with a ball-control offense.
The market shifted after the Divisional Round; Denver’s Super Bowl odds dropped from +750 to +1300 after rookie Bo Nix’s injury. With backup Jarrett Stidham stepping in, the Patriots—led by efficient Drake Maye—are now statistical favorites to represent the AFC.
The NFC West Arms Race
In the NFC, the West dominates. The Seattle Seahawks hold the top seed (14–3), driven by Mike Macdonald’s defense and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout season. Their recent 41–6 win over the 49ers made them Super Bowl favorites at +145.
Despite Seattle’s dominance, sharp bettors have favored the Los Angeles Rams. As a Wild Card, the Rams have the league’s highest offensive success rate. After surviving two overtime thrillers, they enter the Conference Championship as underdogs with a higher perceived offensive ceiling than the No. 1 seed.
Historical Trends: Bye Week Rust and The Home Dog
A key trend shaping 2026 is home favorites struggling after a bye. Although the Seahawks and Broncos won their Divisional games, the market remains wary; historically, home teams off a bye cover less than 44% of the time. This trend was evident when Denver and Buffalo went to overtime despite Denver’s rest advantage.
Furthermore, a long-standing “home dog” trend has resurfaced; in the playoffs over the last 50 years, home underdogs of four or more points are a perfect 9–0 against the spread. This was notably seen in the Wild Card round when the Carolina Panthers covered against the Rams, reminding bettors that home-field advantage still carries weight when the point spread gets too wide.
Scoring Shifts and the 20-Point Threshold
Scoring trends have also taken a sharp turn during the 2025–26 campaign. We have entered a cycle in which defensive coordinators have found answers to the explosive passing attacks of the early 2020s, a shift well documented in weekly breakdowns from FanDuel Research. This evolution has made the 20-point threshold a vital metric for moneyline bettors.
For example, the Houston Texans remained undefeated this season in every game in which they scored at least 20 points—a streak that ended only when the New England defense held them to 16 in the Divisional Round. Consequently, savvy bettors have pivoted away from traditional game spreads and toward “Team Total” bets, using FanDuel Research insights to focus on a specific defense’s ability to suffocate an opponent rather than the final margin of victory.
The Impact of Refereeing and Live Betting
As we look toward the final matchups, officiating has become an unexpected but significant betting variable. Referee Alex Kemp, who is slated for high-profile assignments, has overseen a season where the “Under” has hit in 11 of his 16 games. Favorites are 30–3 straight up in games he has officiated over the last two years, the highest mark of any official.
This statistical quirk, combined with the emergence of young quarterbacks like Maye and the veteran resilience of Matthew Stafford, suggests that the “Live Betting” market will be more active than ever. Bettors are increasingly waiting for the initial “playoff nerves” to settle before placing wagers, especially in environments like the raucous Lumen Field in Seattle.
Following the Trends
As Super Bowl LX nears, the market is currently favoring the “hottest” team over the most consistent one. While the Seahawks remain the most balanced team on paper, the Rams and Patriots continue to draw massive public interest due to their high-EPA offenses and recent ATS success. In a year defined by the fall of old dynasties and the rise of defensive masterminds, the most successful betting strategies prioritize modern efficiency metrics over historical prestige. The 2025–26 playoffs are proving that in a league without a clear-cut dynasty, the most valuable asset a bettor can have is the flexibility to fade the favorites and embrace the defensive grind.
