Updated Colby Parkinson Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook @ 1:00pm ET – Weather (see end)
Should you start Colby Parkinson vs. Seahawks? Introduction
Week 16 has arrived and the Fantasy Football playoffs are well underway. If you’re reading this, you’re likely in your 2025 Fantasy Semifinals’ matchup, and willing to do whatever it takes to punch that ticket to the big Championship Dance. Even if that means starting Colby Parkinson vs. the Seahawks.
Parkinson has a ton on his side this week. No Davante Adams. A juicy matchup vs. the Seahawks. A solid six game stretch. Understandably, he’s jumped from 5% rostered to nearly 30%, and now owners are wondering:
Should I start Colby Parkinson in Week 16 Fantasy Football?
If you have a bottom-barrel Tight End, I’ll save you the trouble of reading this whole article. YES. You absolutely should.
The real question arises if you already have a high-end TE1 like Trey McBride or George Kittle. Should Colby Parkinson be started in your flex spot?
Let’s dive deep into his prospect profile, recent production, and upcoming matchup to determine just how valuable Colby Parkinson Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook could be.
Who is Colby Parkinson? Prospect Profile
Surprisingly, Parkinson landed a BAG from the Rams last offseason, netting a three-year, $22.5M deal with $15.5M in guarantees! Whenever guru Sean McVay identifies a player he loves, and goes out of his way to get him, we should be paying attention.
Unfortunately, Parkinson’s first year in LA didn’t amount to much. Despite playing the full season, Parkinson averaged a mere 3.8 FPPG (TE39). He hauled in just 30 catches for 294 yards with a meager 1 TD. Prior to this season, Parkinson had never scored more than 2 TDs or averaged over 4.1 PPR FPPG.
Parkinson’s historic lack of TDs is a bit odd, given his mammoth size. At 6’7″, Parkinson is in the 98th percentile among NFL TEs for height. The rest of his profile is middling-to-underwhelming, with slightly above-average weight-adjusted speed scores and catch radius, but otherwise subpar burst and agility via PlayerProfiler:
Still, 6’7″ size with just average speed should create problems. Last offseason when they signed Parkinson to that massive deal, McVay noted “Parkinson will add real value” and that “he’s impressed in practice already with his size and catch radius at 6-foot-7.”
OC Mike LaFleur also hyped up Parkinson’s size: “He’s a long, strong, sturdy individual. … He’s a good-sized dude and he’s got great athleticism. He can handle those edges.”
Unfortunately, this amounted to next-to-nothing… until 2025.
Colby Parkinson 2025 Production Thus Far
Parkinson is amidst his best professional season by a mile right now. His 82.1 PFF Grade is tied with Dalton Kincaid for third among TEs with at least 100 snaps, trailing only George Kittle and Trey McBride. Parkinson’s 89.3 Receiving grade from PFF is actually second-best, behind only Kittle.
Parkinson is also 4th among TEs in total TDs (six), despite ranking just 35th in targets and 32nd in receptions.
Best of all? Nearly all of Parkinson’s production has come during a recent six game heater. He has finished as a Top-12 TE in 5 of these 6 games (83%), scoring all six of his TDs in the process. Via RotoViz’s NFL Stat Explorer:
Over this span, Parkinson is the Half-PPR TE4, trailing just Trey McBride, George Kittle, and of course Kyle Pitts after that 40 FP blow-up:
Parkinson’s recent surge also coincides with a healthy usage bump following Tyler Higbee’s Week 11 injury.
In the four full games without Higbee, Parkinson has ran 53%, 43%, 71%, and 63% of the routes. In the last three, he has logged 19%, 17%, and 19% target shares, showcasing far steadier involvement in the offense.
Indeed, Parkinson’s fantasy production has largely been dependent on TDs. However, this steadier overall volume creates at least some floor if he fails to find the end zone.
Yet, Parkinson is an excellent bet to score this week (hammering +210 anytime TD), considering a few factors:
Colby Parkinson Week 16 Fantasy Football Outlook
Beyond just being on a scoring heater (1+ TD in five of his last six, 2 TDs last week), Parkinson is a phenomenal bet to score because:
A) The matchup vs. Seattle
B) Davante Adams’ expected absence
The Seahawks have surrendered the 6th most FPs to TEs on the season. They are 13th in adjusted target share allowed to the position as well and have allowed the fourth most yards (68.0) to TEs per game. Given the Seahawks also clamp down on WRs (4th fewest points allowed), and this passing game may need to be carried by Parkinson and the TEs.
This is doubly true with Davante Adams doubtful for Thursday Night Football.
Adams has become a pseudo goalline back for the Rams this year. Per Fantasy Points’ Data, Adams has a whopping 27 End Zone targets and 14 End Zone TDs this season. Trey McBride is the next closest with 16 end zone targets (-11) and 6 TDs (-8). That is a CRAZY discrepancy.
In fact, among Rams WRs, Adams has a whopping 84.2% of the Inside-the-Five Wide Receiver targets and 66.7% of their Inside-the-20 WR Targets.
Adams’ absence leaves a gaping “Value Hole” for a pass-catcher to fill. Parkinson has been the clear number two in this area, with 19 Inside-the-20 targets — eight more than Puka Nacua! Indeed, the RBs will likely get more work in this area, but Parkinson has areal shot at two TDs without Adams tonight.
I am in love with Parkinson +210 any time TD bets, and I’ll even sprinkle +1800 for 2 TDs, a feat he achieved last week.
Ultimately, between a solid defensive matchup, his scorching hot six game stretch, and Adams’ absence, Parkinson has a phenomenal Week 16 Fantasy Football outlook.
As of now, Colby Parkinson is my TE6 (+1) in my Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings. I am tempted to launch him above even Brock Bowers given the dreaded Houston Matchup.
Weather Update:
Indeed, the weather looks sketchy for Seattle today, with 40+ MPH winds very possible. Yes, heavy winds can be treacherous for passing attacks, especially the deep game.
Which is why I am not overly concerned for Parkinson. He’s not doing his damage deep down the field. You’re rolling out Parkinson in hopes of a TD, maybe even two, and I don’t think those odds are greatly damaged by this wind.
Most of Parkinson’s routes are short and shallow, and often off of play-action. I expect a heavy dose of run with some play action passing to be the focus today given the weather. While I won’t go as far as saying this weather is a positive for Parkinson, I don’t think his role is impacted as much,
