Welcome to the semi-finals! Or if you did not make it to the final four but you’re still dedicated to crushing your opponent each week, welcome in!
Let’s take a moment to applaud everyone who is still battling for a championship this year.
Here’s to you, and may the odds be ever in your favor!
Week 16 features a slew of RB starts that might require a little extra fortitude to submit. It’s paramount to appropriately gauge floors, upside, and exploitable matchups.
As always, remember this is just a game, and do not target NFL players on social media for lackluster fantasy performances.
LET’S GO!
RUNNING BACKS TO START IN WEEK 16
Audric Estime vs. New York Jets
Why not Evan Hull? Well, you could! The Jets have surrendered at least 21.8 half PPR points to opposing RBs/backfields the last five weeks.
Since trading Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys, the Jets have given up the most FPs to opposing RBs.
With Alvin Kamara not being seen at Wednesday’s practice, opening up a golden opportunity for the pair of young backs.
Estime handled most of the pass-catching work for the Saints in week 15 and caught three passes for 39 yards.
Estime led all backs in usage, while dominating short yardage, third down, and two-minute drill opportunities when Neal was out of the picture.
In other words, if his utilization in week 15 is predictive at all, Estime is the most likely RB to perform for fantasy.
Breece Hall vs. New Orleans Saints
It’s been hard to start Hall for the last two weeks. He’s scored a combined 10 fantasy points across that time span and has earned the scorn of fantasy managers everywhere!
Part of his struggles last week could be attributed to being a bit banged up. He only commanded around 66% of the backfield’s expected fantasy points.
Still, Hall’s 12.0 xFP (RB23) makes him a solid play among two bad teams. Saints are a friendly matchup on the ground, and Hall should rebound nicely!
D’Andre Swift vs. Green Bay Packers
Another RB getting the Travis Etienne underappreciation treatment is Swift. Give this man his flowers!
He’s averaging FP/g (RB13) and is top 10 in yards per carry (4.9). Last week, he carved up the Cleveland Browns’ defense for 96 total yards and multiple scores.
The matchup against the Packers isn’t as scary as it was at the beginning of the season.
Two weeks ago, when the Packers were closer to full strength on D, Swift racked up 82 yards on 16 touches (5.1 YPT).
Now that Micah Parsons is done for the season with an ACL tear, the whole dynamic of the Packers’ defense has changed.
He did pop up on the Wednesday injury report with a groin injury, so monitor that before locking him into lineups.
Quinshon Judkins vs. Buffalo Bills
Judkins has had an up-and-down rookie season. A matchup against the Bills could be just the pick-me-up the Browns star needs to get back on track.
The Bills have surrendered 20 total TDs to RBs, including five in their past three games.
Diving a little deeper, the Bills are in the top three in terms of explosive run rate allowed, while allowing the third-most rushing yards.
The Browns’ offensive line is a huge problem. Neary 62% of Judkins’ 805 yards on the ground have come after contact.
Still, despite struggles creating lanes for Judkins, he continues to produce for fantasy, averaging 12.1 ppg (RB24).
With Judkins seeing 71.4% of the Browns’ carries inside the 5, there’s a strong chance Judkins scores this week.
RUNNING BACKS TO BENCH IN WEEK 16
Blake Corum vs. Seattle Seahawks
Since Thanksgiving, Corum has had an appetite for ripping off big runs and scoring TDs. I guess the turkey, mashed potatoes, and stuffing weren’t filling enough.
A rough matchup with the Seattle Seahawks might finally satisfy this Ram’s insatiable hunger!
In his first outing against the Seahawks, Corum struggled mightily, securing only 10 yards on 8 rush attempts. The Rams, as a whole, only managed 101 yards and a score combined between Corum and Kyren Williams.
Temper your expectations with Corum this week.
Ashton Jeanty vs. Houston Texans
Here’s a mind-boggling stat to keep in the back of your mind before anyone thinks of uttering the word “bust” regarding Jeanty.
In week 15, the Raiders’ offense failed to hit 100 yards for the second time this season. Yes, you read that correctly.
While the expectations around Jeanty make him worthy of the term fantasy bust, putting this on his shoulders is asinine. He ranks just behind Javonte Williams in terms of yards after contact per attempt.
The Texans rush defense has allowed just over 100 total rush yards in their last five games, along with just two touchdowns.
Despite ranking among the top 6 RBs in offensive snaps this season, Jeanty ranks 19th in ppg. Even with Jeanty seeing 10 targets the last two weeks, he’s only managed 15 receiving yards.
Teams are not afraid of the Raiders ground game and are prioritizing shutting Jeanty down in the receiving game.
In other words, don’t dance with the fantasy devil this week. Give Jeanty the Justin Jefferson treatment and sit him down.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Bill hype is back!
He scored 15.6 points against the Giants while filling in for Chris Rodriguez Jr, earning him rookie of the week honors.
The Eagles rush defense is a much different animal than the Giants and Marcus Mariota is likely going to have to throw a lot to try and keep pace.
Last week, Bill handled only 49% of the team’s rush attempts, raising questions to how much volume he will receive this week.
Plop him down on the bench and don’t worry about it!
Tony Pollard vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I might be standing out on the edge of the earth a little here. Pollard has been on FIRE lately. He’s averaging over 23 ppg in his last two games and has lived in the endzone.
The Chiefs don’t give up explosive runs, allowing them at the lowest rate in the league. They allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs while allowing the sixth-fewest rush yards.
Both teams have nothing to play for other than the name on the front of the jersey, so chasing points might not be the play here.
