For most, the trade deadline looms ahead of the Thanksgiving slate of games.
With most playoff pictures being decided, it’s paramount to buy and sell those players that can weigh your rosters down in the playoffs or push you to the mountaintop.
Maximize value, timing, and, with a little luck, a fantasy title is within your reach.
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for a profit and strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
WEEK 12 PLAYERS TO BUY AHEAD OF TRADE DEADLINE
Davante Adams
Things have started to shape up more for Adams after a hot start for Puka Nacua squashed his output a bit.
Adams is still underperforming this season, scoring -2.3 fantasy points over expectation, and is still in line for more positive regression.
Despite a ridiculous amount of uncatachable volume, Adams is still pacing for a ridiculous stat line and has raised the bar.
Buy him if you can, maybe even as part of a package with the next player?
Jaylen Waddle
Sometimes you just have to chase opportunities and bet on putting yourself in the best position to win, even if it makes you uneasy.
In week 11, Waddle commanded a staggering 76% of the Dolphins’ air yards while being targeted 35% of the time.
He rewarded you with a disappointing, stinky 8.2 fantasy points. Sometimes bad games just happen.
No Tyreek Hill, no problem?
Waddle has scored at least 14 fantasy points in 7 of 11 games and has consistently been a WR2 or better (54% of games).
Going forward, the Dolphins have the 7th-easiest strength of schedule and the 6th-most favorable playoff schedule for WRs.
Trust the usage, trust the volume, and let the pieces fall where they may…even if Tua stinks to high heaven.
Other players to buy: Jakobi Meyers, Justin Herbert, Dalton Schultz
WEEK 12 PLAYERS TO SELL AHEAD OF TRADE DEADLINE
Bijan Robinson
Sometimes, you just have to put personal feelings aside and make the right move for your team.
Robinson is obviously an elite among the elites at the position.
This has the chance of biting me in the butt, but it may be time to trade Robinson for a healthy package and have a deeper overall starting roster.
Last week, Robinson saw 27 total touches, including three of four close to the goal line.
With Michael Penix out for the season and Kirk Cousins in the saddle, starting Robinson raises eyebrows.
In week 8, Cousins started for the injured Penix, and he produced his lowest fantasy output (5.8 points).
With a brutal schedule ahead and injuries across the offense, Robinson’s weekly output should take a massive hit.
James Cook
Ty Johnson continues to be a passing game vulture to Cook.
With Cook struggling recently on the ground (3.8 YPC across his last three games), losing passing game work raises major red flags.
Fantasy Points highlighted how Cook has run one more route than Johnson in their last two games.
These things make Cook appear to be a touchdown and game-script dependent back. In other words, he’s more highly subject to variance and has a much lower fantasy floor.
Honestly, the Bills’ use of Johnson more in the passing game is as perplexing as it is frustrating.
Still, recent trends cannot be ignored. The Bills may be trying to preserve Cook for the actual NFL playoffs.
Sell him after a big week for a running back of near caliber with a more stable floor or a major upgrade at the WR position.
Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka may be hitting the proverbial “rookie wall” at the worst possible time.
Over his last four games, Egbuka has not looked like the same player. A few great catches here and there don’t change his recent struggles.
Over his last four games, his target share has skyrocketed! This hints at him underperforming and could certainly make a case that he could be a potential buy low.
Still, despite averaging 10.8 targets per game, FantasyPoints data shows that his catch rate has bottomed out at 43% (78th among 82 qualified WRs).
During that same stretch, Baker Mayfield has a 52% catchable pass rate when targeting Egbuka. That ranks dead last.
It’s a clear fall off from the 87% rate the two shared the first five weeks of the season.
With question marks surrounding his output going forward, it could be a handsome pay off to trade Egbuka and acquire someone like Adams.
Other players to consider selling: Rico Dowdle, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson
