Hopefully, everyone who had the misfortune of reading this took my advice last week and bought Tetairoa McMillan, Jameson Williams, and AJ Brown!
The injury reaper didn’t leave fantasy managers alone last week. Fortunately, none of the most significant new ones seem serious or relatively season altering!
Emeka Egbuka, Garrett Wilson, and Puka Nacua all found themselves hobbling off the field and could all likely miss some time.
These injuries could leave fantasy managers in a bit of a pinch. Some could wind up on the trade market, and that is your chance to pounce!
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for a profit and strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
WEEK 7 BUY LOW SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
WEEK 7 BUY LOW TRADE TARGETS
Travis Etienne
Back to back weeks under 10 fantasy points is likely giving some fantasy managers flashbacks of last season’s collapse.
This is not the same situation as last season! Etienne is healthy as a horse and Bhayshul Tuten has not seen a bump in work.
Last week’s disappointer against the Seahawks should have come as no surprise.
The Seahawks throttle opposing ground games, ranking second in rush yards allowed while being tied for the top spot with only two rushing TDs all season.
The Chiefs game was bizarre. Trevor Lawrence led the team in rushing on 10 attempts, just two fewer than Etienne.
Still, he hasn’t seen fewer than 15 touches all season and, don’t look now, but he’s drawn nine targets his last two games.
Etienne’s workload has equaled out to around 12.7 xFP/g (RB23). Before the two quieter games he was averaging nearly 17 fantasy points and 100 YFS/g.
After another stingy matchup in week 7 against the Rams, Etienne goes on bye and then gets the Raiders, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals, and Colts for that lovely playoff push.
Have the guts to buy Etienne before the schedule opens up.
Davante Adams
Matthew Stafford has, overall, been good for fantasy.
After multiple years with a sub 4% TD rate, Stafford appears to be getting things done through the air more.
Despite Stafford’s 5.7% TD rate, Adams has been relatively unlucky
He’s the RB2 in xFP (18.4) despite scoring only 13.9 fppg (WR19).
Stafford and Adams have been fruitful, but not in lockstep with each other. Only around 50% of his xFP have been deemed catchable according to Fantasy Points data.
If Puka cannot go this week, Adams could be in line for a massive game and his buy window would be slammed shut.
With, or without Puka on the field, Adams is a screaming, potentially playoff seed securing buy low and fantasy managers should act accordingly.
Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman is another player who is uber talented and is chronically followed by a petrifying fantasy stink.
Coming into the week, Pittman was a top 15 WR and is still a WR2 (13.6 ppg) despite being the WR51 in xFP (10.0).
A two catch for 20 yard clunker has sent some fantasy managers running for the hills after being out targeted by both Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.
Pittman is seeing 23.4% of the Colts’ air yards while being targeted on 23% of his routes.
He’s firmly in second on the team in first read rate (23.2%), just behind rookie tight end Tyler Warren (23.9%).
Pittman is still the WR1 on the number one scoring offense in football and should be in line to continue being one of the best draft day values in 2025.
With another rough week possible in week 7, with the Chargers secondary looming, Pittman could even be shelved for a week and acquired in week 8.
But do you want to risk missing out on him as a WR3/flex?
WEEK 7 SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
Cam Skattebo
The belle of the fantasy ball being a sell high? Grab your torch and pitch forks and chase Frankenstein’s Monster away from the digital village!
Skattebo’s game has translated to the NFL surprisingly well for my personal tastes.
Questions still arise how well his violent, contact-loving running style holds up long term, but he proved he was no college wunderkin.
Right now, Skattebo is doing exactly what he’s supposed to do fantasy wise. He’s averaging 16.4 ppg and his usage suggests he should score… wait for it… 16.4 xFP/g.
Currently, his saving grace is his receiving game usage. On the season, he averages 3.8 targets per bout.
Skattebo is a screaming sell-high because the internet is all in a frenzy about him. The highlights and the hype have made him the fantasy football version of “Linsanity.”
This offense still runs through Jaxson Dart and, when opposing defenses start game planning to stop Skattebo from laying down the Skatteboom on them.
Oh, and with a rough stretch of games against Denver, Green Bay, and Detroit ahead… his fantasy output might just take a dive as well. Just sayin!
Dallas Goedert
Goedert has been a stabilizing force for the Eagles offense that looks to be in utter disarray.
He’s the TE2 in ppg after high-scoring affairs in two of his last three games.
With the TE landscape the way it is, I understand any apprehension there may be toward trading away a positional advantage.
He’s been an up-and-down option at the position, but been unusable for nearly 60% of his games since 2023.
A quick scan of Goedert’s seasonal production revealed that he’s already tied his career-high in TDs this season.
Comparing Goedert’s xFP and his weekly fantasy production raises some sell-high alarms as well.
Despite his usage suggesting he should score around 12.3 fantasy points, he’s scoring 3.3 fantasy points over expectation (15.7 ppg).
On the season, he’s averaging a trip to paydirt a game, despite a 0.49 xTD.
With AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith having their squeaky wheels greased by getting more involved and the offense still running through Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, Goedert could be due for a rapid drop off in production.
He should be flipped for peak value while you can.
Rico Dowdle
Last week I postulated Dowdle was better than Hubbard. This week I sanctify it.
The rub is, the rest of the fantasy community seems to have arrived at the same conclusion. Thus, the sell window opens.
Dowdle has scored almost 63 fantasy points the last two weeks while amassing roughly 500 yards from scrimmage. That output will not sustain itself.
Hubbard is coming back and he will dig into the Dowdle snap counts.
Before getting injured, Chuba was on the field for roughly 65% of the team snaps while averaging 78 yards per game. Dowdle isn’t going to keep that off the field, especially after he collected the bag this offseason.
Buoyed by his two week bonanza, Dowdle is currently the RB16 (14.6 ppg, +2.3 FPOE). Before being injured, Hubbard was averaging, checks notes, 14 ppg.
As for expected production, Hubbard’s sample size with a heavy workload is larger and his role was worth 15 xFP/g. That was on the back of more than 16 touches per game.
With Dowdle and Hubbard splitting the backfield, neither is expected to command a workload that will be worth what they might be on the trade market.
