The same ol’ story continues to write itself. The injury landscape in fantasy football has become almost as painful as a masterpiece by Edgar Allen Poe.
Depth and wise roster management have become vital as the cruelest mistress of fantasy football continues to cast her siren song on rosters.
Injuries have made this season not fun. The injury landscape consists of 14 players in the top 48 (~29.2%) of the top 48 in preseason PPR ADP who have missed time with injury or landed on IR, according to Rich Hribar.
Hopefully, the rising and setting of the Super Harvest Moon will appease the vindictive forces plaguing the injury landscape, and the game can become fun again.
All joking aside, staying water with fantasy rosters and hoping for Lady Luck to be on your side is key to winning in fantasy.
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for a profit and strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
WEEK 6 BUY LOW SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
WEEK 6 BUY LOW TRADE TARGETS
AJ Brown
The Eagles are starting to open up the passing game more. Defenses have begun stacking the box to slow down the run, and Devonta Smith appears to be reaping the rewards, with good performances in two of the last three weeks.
After a one-off fantasy bonanza by Brown, fantasy managers who sunk high capital into the grumpy superstar are waiting for their just desserts.
Perhaps their patience is running thin? Maybe some unsettling losses have started to pile up?
Brown has seen 19 targets the last couple of weeks.
So he’s either completely checked out and is essentially trying to force his way out of Philadelphia, or fantasy points are about to come in bunches.
Through five weeks, Brown (8.9) is scoring -3.8 fantasy points vs. expectation per game (12.6 xFP).
Now that the Eagles have opened up their aerial attack, it’s only a matter of time until the pieces fall into place. Lock up a potential ROS WR1 for low-end WR2 value.
Jameson Williams
There’s a little bit of steel underpants that go with standing on this ledge. At face value, it simultaneously looks like the biggest “duh” take and a nonsensical stance.
So far, Williams has been just slightly above useless on the fantasy scorecard.
The Lions seem to have implemented Williams in an effective way to keep the middle of the field wide open for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs to feast.
Utilizing Williams’ blistering speed downfield has routinely drawn multiple defenders, opening up big plays for other Lions playmakers.
Despite such horrendous fantasy usage, Williams is scoring right around expectation (-0.4 FPOE).
What happens when some of the deep shots connect? When opposing defenses stop dropping two to three defenders on Williams deep? Or when Williams takes slants and screens to the house?
Target volume has been lackluster. However, it wasn’t long ago (week 4) that Williams had eight targets in a game.
After not capitalizing against the Bengals, he has another chance in a potential shootout with Kansas City before another possible shootout with Tampa Bay.
Buy him on the cheap, especially if you have steady production at the WR2 position and you have a potential week-winning flex option at your disposal.
Tetairoa McMillan
Are fantasy managers tired of T-Mac not doing much with his lack of production? They could be ready to move on to someone scoring more points, giving you a chance at a potential stretch superstar for a discount.
Through the first five games, T-Mac has not had a game with fewer than eight targets. He’s commanded a sexy 27% target share, but has been blanketed by opposing defenses.
Jalen Coker is set to return soon, and that should help draw a little cushion from opposing defenses.
McMillan is averaging an appetizing 15.3 xFP and is still averaging
McMillan is seeing an elite 27% target share with no fewer than eight targets per game. One issue has been the lack of help around him, but that should change soon with Jalen Coker expected to return this week.
That addition should help open up the field and give McMillan more room to make plays.
Lock him down!
WEEK 6 SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
Christian McCaffrey
Just yesterday, I wrote about how Christian McCaffrey should be a screaming sell high, and after a day of reflection, I stand by it.
Through five weeks, 22.8% of Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy production has come on the ground.
His 52 targets and 39 receptions rank third and second, respectively, among WRs, yes WRs. On the ground, CMC has looked more like a shell of himself than what we’re accustomed to.
He’s averaging an alarming 3.1 YPC in what has historically been one of the most efficient running schemes.
He’s been fed just under 48% of the team’s offensive touches. This is roughly 5% higher than his previous 2023 mark (42.9%).
This has yielded a league-leading 669 scrimmage yards and 130 touches, all while hitting triple-digit scrimmage yards in every game he’s played.
On the flip side… CMC ranks 23rd in rush yards per game (56.4), 40th in YPC, and 36th in yards before contact per attempt (1.52).
His cheat code explosivesness appear to be gone as well.
Are his ground struggles the product of defensive scheme or an indicator of a likely sharp decrease in pass volume with the return of Kittle and Pearsall imminent and Aiyuk working in later this season?
A drop in receiving work could be potentially detrimental to his fantasy output.
Through the first five games, CMC ranks first among RBs in expected fantasy points (27.2). In fact, that mark is nearly seven full points higher than second-place Jonathan Taylor.
Still, CMC is scoring -3.5 fantasy points over expectation per game, as well as -0.5 expected touchdowns per game.
Having 77.2% of your fantasy production come in the receiving game with a slew of talented pass catchers returning has to justifiably raise eyebrows.
Rashid Shaheed
Capitalize on the upside narrative surrounding Shaheed and Spencer Rattler. Do it. I’ll wait.
Great! Let me tell you why that’s a great move.
Inconsistency; being tied to a bad team with, at least, an average quarterback. You’re chasing touchdowns in a low TD equity situation. That’s like hoping to win the Powerball by buying only one ticket.
For the season, the Saints usage for Shaheed suggests he should score around 11.8 xFP/g (WR37). He’s currently scoring just under a point over expectation.
For the season, Shaheed has scored in single digits in 60% of his games.
His output is not to be trusted, and if a juicy offer comes along or the chance to package him for an upgrade (ie Deebo Samuel) do it without any hesitation.
Rico Dowdle
I’ve heard the field is still radioactive after Rico Dowdle dropped a nuke on the hapless Dolphins.
How many times do you expect Dowdle to get 26 touches? Unless news comes out that Chuba Hubbard is going to miss extended time, Dowdle is not going to get a heavy workload.
His explosion has likely forced a near-even split timeshare with Hubbard, who was just handed the bag this offseason.
On the season, Hubbard’s role has been worth 15 xFP/g (RB17), while Dowdle’s has been worth 10.3 (RB32).
P.S. Dowdle is the better RB imo and the data seems to check out.
After the mammalian fish-fry that happened in Carolina, I understand waiting one more week and reaping the revenge game rewards against the Dallas defense.
