I write this at the risk of sounding “clickbaity.” However, I feel it is a legitimate question worth discussing.
Through five weeks, 22.8% of Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy production has come on the ground.
His 52 targets and 39 receptions rank third and second, respectively, among WRs, yes WRs. On the ground, CMC has looked more like a shell of himself than what we’re accustomed to.
He’s averaging an alarming 3.1 YPC in what has historically been one of the most efficient running schemes.
An interesting stat was shared in an article from ESPN, claiming that the 49ers are the second team in 90 years (that is not a typo) to start 4-1 or better without a rushing touchdown.
If we’re being intellectually honest with ourselves, we have to question just how sustainable this scoring model is for CMC.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan called CMC “the best running back he’s ever seen.”
He’s been fed just under 48% of the team’s offensive touches. This is roughly 5% higher than his previous 2023 mark (42.9%).
This has yielded a league-leading 669 scrimmage yards and 130 touches, all while hitting triple-digit scrimmage yards in every game he’s played.
“He’s one of the toughest, grittiest guys I’ve ever been around — how he approaches every day, how physical he is,” Shanahan said. “Christian has been unbelievable. He’s been running into some really tough looks but he doesn’t shy away from anything.”
On the flip side… CMC ranks 23rd in rush yards per game (56.4), 40th in YPC, and 36th in yards before contact per attempt (1.52).
His cheat code explosivesness appear to be gone as well.
Only around 5% of his rush attempts have gone for more than 10 yards (113th).
With injuries to George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Ricky Pearsall, to name a few, it’s no wonder that opposing defenses lock on to CMC.
Are his ground struggles the product of defensive scheme or an indicator of a likely sharp decrease in pass volume with the return of Kittle and Pearsall imminent and Aiyuk working in later this season?
A drop in receiving work could be potentially detrimental to his fantasy output.
Through the first five games, CMC ranks first among RBs in expected fantasy points (27.2). In fact, that mark is nearly seven full points higher than second-place Jonathan Taylor.
Still, CMC is scoring -3.5 fantasy points over expectation per game, as well as -0.5 expected touchdowns per game.
Among prominent running backs, CMC ranks second in xTD, behind Taylor and ahead of Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, and James Cook.
This isn’t to say that once Kittle, Pearsall, and eventually Aiyuk all return, that this will be a death nail to CMC.
He’s averaging nearly 24 fantasy points per game and, with 5.8 red zone opportunities per game, high-value opportunities should still be plentiful.
Having 77.2% of your fantasy production come in the receiving game with a slew of talented pass catchers returning has to justifiably raise eyebrows.
Should his targets be cut in half, suddenly CMC potentially falls to a high-end RB2 without a spike in rush efficiency.
From where I’m standing, I view CMC as a massive sell-high for a potential league-winning ransom.
Target fantasy managers rostering De’Von Achane or Ashton Jeanty and offer them CMC and get a WR or TE upgrade along the way.
Managers who may be hesitant to ship McCaffrey would be wise to shop around and acquire Brian Robinson Jr. and protect themselves.
