Here we are. It’s week five, and players like Quentin Johnston and George Pickens are at the top of fantasy discussion boards.
Johnston and Pickens are the WRs 4 and 6, respectively, in PPR scoring. Meanwhile, near consensus 1.01 Ja’Marr Chase is the WR18 with 14.3 ppg.
After his week one outburst, many were still slow to get aboard the Johnston train, and Pickens appears to have made the most of his time without CeeDee Lamb.
Buying players low and/or selling them high is paramount in fantasy strategy. Roster management and fantasy strategies are living, breathing organisms.
Which players should you try to target? Which should you try to capitalize on for a profit and strengthen your team in the long run?
Through a combination of opportunity-based expected fantasy points (xFP), usage, and market analysis, we hope to guide when and why players should be bought and sold to maximize value while helping with roster construction.
Let’s go!
Week 5 Buy Low, Sell High Trade Targets
WEEK 5 BUY LOW TRADE TARGETS
Brian Thomas Jr.
Yeah this season has started EXACTLY how fantasy managers expected for Thomas this season.
It’s only logical to draft a guy near the 1-2 turn and be pleased with a sub 40 PPR WR leading our squads.
Fantasy managers have likely grown as stale as my above sarcasm surrounding Thomas.
The pass volume is there, as are the behind-the-scenes metrics like air yards, fantasy points per route run, and expected fantasy points.
Thomas commands 36.3% of the Jacksonville air yards and is the first read on nearly 26% of his routes run.
His 0.24 fantasy points per route run (134th) comes in around -0.17 vs. expectation for the year.
The passing game should continue to round into form as the season continues. It’s probably smart to get the target leader on the cheap before an explosion inevitably happens.
Derrick Henry
This might be wishful thinking, but trying to trade for Henry now might wind up winning fantasy leagues.
Lamar Jackson is out through the team’s bye week, and the Ravens attack is going to have to rely on Henry to win games.
With three straight weeks of subpar usage, Henry is averaging a disappointing 9.4 xFP/g.
Over that time span, Henry has accumulated 115 yards on the ground on only 31 carries. That’s not cutting it for one of the most legendary horses to ever sculpt the fantasy landscape.
His week one explosion is padding his 3.6 FPOE a bit, but he’s expected to remain a key cog in the Ravens offense for the rest of the season.
All it takes is one big week to slam all trade doors shut. Get after him now before high volume in week 5 likely leads to big fantasy points.
Jordan Mason
Some might argue that Mason is a sell high, with the return of Aaron Jones looming. So why am I zigging while everyone else is zagging?
What kind of value cut is Jones going to have on Mason’s role? He’s not a heavy pass catcher, averaging 1.8 targets per game.
His usage is not that outlandish, worth 10.8 xFP/g.
The facts of the matter are, Jones looks closer to washed than how he’s looked the last few years.
He’s not had a single explosive run this season. He’s averaging half the yards before contact that Mason is, according to Fantasy Points data. He only forced one missed tackle through two games.
What threat is he really to Mason’s rush work? Jones will catch more passes and help extend drives. This leads to Mason getting more high-value work inside the red zone, especially around the goal line.
Buy him now and get ready to reap the rewards once Kevin O’Connell gets this Vikings offense humming on all cylinders.
WEEK 5 SELL HIGH TRADE TARGETS
Ladd McConkey
I’m bucking all trends with this. McConkey has clearly underperformed relative to expectations to start the season. The Chargers have been one of the premier passing attacks in the league, ranking fifth in passing yards and attempts.
McConkey is clearly the third option on the team.
He commands only 19.8% of the team air yards, less than half of Johnston’s 39.5%. He and Keenan Allen do not appear to have a symbiotic relationship on the field. McConkey and Allen’s 8.0 and 8.7 aDot suggest they run similar routes.
Allen has scored 0.4 fantasy points per route run vs. McConkey’s 0.16. While they have similar first-read per route run rates (22.6% vs. 23.6% respectively), Allen averages a first down on twice as many routes run as McConkey (11.3% vs. 5.8%).
As for their usage, Allen, Johnston, and McConkey average 15.9, 15.5, and 11.0 xFP/g. An argument can be made for McConkey performing more closely to expectation, as he’s scoring -2.7 FPOE.
That would still only put him around the WR39.
I’m not buying the positive regression argument for Ladd without injury, and I recommend trying my hardest to sell him for someone like Jaylen Waddle or Jameson Williams + based on name value.
Jake Ferguson
The tight end position is largely a barren landscape.
Despite bringing in a surplus of young talent, production at the position still leaves fantasy managers wanting more.
Ferguson wasn’t likely drafted to be a team’s TE1. In fact, most of the season he had likely camped out unwanted on waivers.
Selling him high on the back of being a PPR monster to a TE-needy team is smart fantasy. The position can be streamed and Lamb will return, which would essentially eliminate Ferguson’s higher PPR floor.
Right now, Ferguson leads all tight ends in xFP (16.2) and points per game.
The Cowboys are the number one offense in yards per game and it’s not unreasonable to think that Ferguson could stay top 5 at the position.
But selling the current TE1 overall when he’s almost assuredly due for major negative regression just makes too much sense. It’s like selling a $1 candy bar for $5 at a concession stand.
Romeo Doubs
The perfect “you’re doing what?” pot sweetener to upgrade at the position.
Through the first four weeks, Doubs’ role has been worth 12.3 xFP and, after his trifecta TD day, he’s currently outscoring that by about 1.5 points per game.
The math seems fairly obvious here.
No Jayden Reed and Doubs might just be the defacto WR1 on the team. But is that really a role you want? He’s not a special talent and is far more likely to do less with more than Matthew Golden or even Dontayvion Wicks.
Doubs has been the first read on 20.3% of his routes and is tied with Tucker Kraft for the team lead in targets.
That all sounds well and good, but he’s only seen 19 targets through 4 games… that’s under 5 targets per game. That’s not an asset you want to hold on to for anything other than a spot flex play or a bench depth piece.
Golden is still rounding into form and offers way more upside than Doubs.
